The School of Odds
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Bridgeport Islanders v W-B/Scranton Penguins

Kickoff: 2026-04-09 23:10 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Bridgeport Islanders (Local)

Prediction 33.42%2.99fair odd
EV -6.42%
Edge -2.29%
Kelly -3.57%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.91%33.12%33.42%34.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.692.752.8040.00%37.14%36.36%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

W-B/Scranton Penguins (Visit)

Prediction 44.29%2.26fair odd
EV -2.55%
Edge -1.16%
Kelly -2.13%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.91%44.63%44.29%46.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.932.112.142.2051.81%47.44%46.73%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.28%4.49fair odd
EV -5.07%
Edge -1.19%
Kelly -1.55%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.26

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.58%22.25%22.28%24.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.703.953.854.2627.03%25.30%25.97%23.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Bridgeport Islanders (Local): 33.42%; W-B/Scranton Penguins (Visit): 44.29%; Draw: 22.28%. For W-B/Scranton Penguins (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.26. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.20, with an expected value of -2.55%; they did not produce positive expected value.

10 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -6.42%E -2.29%K -3.57%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 46.30%EV -14.51%E -7.52%K -15.60%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.79%EV -8.63%E -2.11%K -2.79%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-09 04:58
GTbets🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.33%EV -8.09%E -2.94%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.51%EV -3.88%E -1.79%K -3.32%G +0.000%4.26I 23.47%NM 22.16%EV -5.07%E -1.19%K -1.55%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-09 03:59
Unibet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -8.09%E -2.94%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.17%EV -2.55%E -1.16%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.10%EV -14.20%E -3.69%K -4.98%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-09 19:00
Unibet (NL)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -8.09%E -2.94%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.17%EV -2.55%E -1.16%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.10%EV -14.20%E -3.69%K -4.98%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-09 19:00
Grosvenor🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -8.09%E -2.94%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.17%EV -2.55%E -1.16%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.10%EV -14.20%E -3.69%K -4.98%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-09 19:00
Casumo🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -8.09%E -2.94%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.17%EV -2.55%E -1.16%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.10%EV -14.20%E -3.69%K -4.98%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-09 19:00
PMU (FR)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -8.09%E -2.94%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.17%EV -2.55%E -1.16%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.10%EV -14.20%E -3.69%K -4.98%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-09 19:00
ATG (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -8.09%E -2.94%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.17%EV -2.55%E -1.16%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.10%EV -14.20%E -3.69%K -4.98%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-09 19:00
Svenska Spel🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -8.09%E -2.94%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.17%EV -2.55%E -1.16%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.10%EV -14.20%E -3.69%K -4.98%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-09 19:00
Unibet (UK)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -8.09%E -2.94%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.18%EV -6.98%E -3.32%K -6.35%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.09%EV -6.41%E -1.53%K -2.00%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-09 18:59
Betway🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.01%EV -8.09%E -2.94%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.29%EV -9.20%E -4.49%K -8.76%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.70%EV -10.86%E -2.72%K -3.62%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-09 04:59
Winamax (DE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.20%EV -11.43%E -4.31%K -6.93%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.21%EV -9.20%E -4.49%K -8.76%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.58%EV -6.41%E -1.53%K -2.00%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-09 19:00
LeoVegas🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.85%EV -11.43%E -4.31%K -6.93%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 41.91%EV -5.21%E -2.43%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.24%EV -17.55%E -4.74%K -6.50%G +0.000%11.5%2026-04-09 18:59
Codere (IT)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.84%EV -11.43%E -4.31%K -6.93%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.74%EV -9.20%E -4.49%K -8.76%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.42%EV -10.86%E -2.72%K -3.62%G +0.000%11.5%2026-04-09 19:00
1xBet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.93%EV -12.10%E -4.60%K -7.42%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 42.93%EV -5.21%E -2.43%K -4.57%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.14%EV -7.52%E -1.81%K -2.39%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-09 22:25
Unibet (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 33.97%EV -14.78%E -5.79%K -9.53%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 43.53%EV -11.85%E -5.96%K -11.97%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.50%EV -14.20%E -3.69%K -4.98%G +0.000%15.4%2026-04-09 22:49
Betclic (FR)🎯2.53I 39.53%NM 33.78%EV -15.44%E -6.10%K -10.09%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 43.61%EV -13.18%E -6.73%K -13.73%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 22.61%EV -15.76%E -4.17%K -5.67%G +0.000%17.0%2026-04-09 22:39
Winamax (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 34.38%EV -16.45%E -6.58%K -10.96%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 43.86%EV -13.18%E -6.73%K -13.73%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 21.76%EV -11.98%E -3.03%K -4.06%G +0.000%16.3%2026-04-09 19:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (10)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.22I 45.05%NM 44.64%1.79I 55.87%NM 55.36%0.9%2026-04-09 22:50
theScore Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%5.0%2026-04-09 04:59
Bet Right🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%5.3%2026-04-09 22:04
William Hill🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%7.5%2026-04-09 04:59
betPARX🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.99%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.01%7.6%2026-04-09 19:00
Bally Bet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.99%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.01%7.6%2026-04-09 19:00
Betr (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.15%1.66I 60.24%NM 55.85%7.9%2026-04-08 23:50
BetRivers🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.84%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.16%8.0%2026-04-09 19:00
Smarkets◎2.06I 48.54%NM 44.77%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.23%8.4%2026-04-09 19:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%1.65I 60.61%NM 55.41%9.4%2026-04-09 22:05