The School of Odds
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Bridgeport Islanders v Hershey Bears

Kickoff: 2026-03-21 19:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Bridgeport Islanders (Local)

Prediction 37.20%2.69fair odd
EV -2.52%
Edge -0.963%
Kelly -1.56%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.07%36.72%37.20%38.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.412.382.6243.48%41.56%42.02%38.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Hershey Bears (Visit)

Prediction 40.31%2.48fair odd
EV -0.038%
Edge -0.015%
Kelly -0.026%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.48

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.23%40.81%40.31%42.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.332.332.4847.62%42.87%42.83%40.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.49%4.45fair odd
EV -5.33%
Edge -1.26%
Kelly -1.66%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.21

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.87%22.48%22.49%23.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.733.943.884.2126.81%25.38%25.81%23.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Bridgeport Islanders (Local): 37.20%; Hershey Bears (Visit): 40.31%; Draw: 22.49%. For Hershey Bears (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.481. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.480, with an expected value of -0.038%; they did not produce positive expected value.

9 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
GTbets🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 36.02%EV -2.52%E -0.963%K -1.56%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 41.57%EV -8.50%E -3.75%K -6.70%G +0.000%4.21I 23.75%NM 22.41%EV -5.33%E -1.26%K -1.66%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-21 11:30
Tipico (DE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.07%EV -5.13%E -2.01%K -3.31%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.58%EV -15.35%E -7.31%K -13.96%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.35%EV -10.05%E -2.51%K -3.35%G +0.000%11.8%2026-03-21 18:06
Unibet (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.48%EV -6.99%E -2.80%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.21%EV -6.08%E -2.61%K -4.57%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.31%EV -5.55%E -1.32%K -1.73%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-21 18:05
Betway🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.02%EV -8.85%E -3.61%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.31%EV -9.31%E -4.14%K -7.45%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.67%EV -10.05%E -2.51%K -3.35%G +0.000%10.3%2026-03-21 18:03
Codere (IT)🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 37.31%EV -9.96%E -4.12%K -7.02%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.12%EV -9.31%E -4.14%K -7.45%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.57%EV -10.05%E -2.51%K -3.35%G +0.000%10.8%2026-03-21 18:04
Winamax (DE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.37%EV -10.71%E -4.46%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.76%EV -11.32%E -5.15%K -9.44%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.87%EV -7.80%E -1.90%K -2.52%G +0.000%11.5%2026-03-21 18:04
Unibet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.79%EV -11.45%E -4.81%K -8.30%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.23%EV -0.038%E -0.015%K -0.026%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.98%EV -13.42%E -3.49%K -4.71%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-21 17:59
Casumo🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.79%EV -11.45%E -4.81%K -8.30%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.23%EV -0.038%E -0.015%K -0.026%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.98%EV -13.42%E -3.49%K -4.71%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-21 18:00
Unibet (NL)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.79%EV -11.45%E -4.81%K -8.30%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.23%EV -0.038%E -0.015%K -0.026%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.98%EV -13.42%E -3.49%K -4.71%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-21 18:05
Grosvenor🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.79%EV -11.45%E -4.81%K -8.30%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.23%EV -0.038%E -0.015%K -0.026%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.98%EV -13.42%E -3.49%K -4.71%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-21 18:00
ATG (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.79%EV -11.45%E -4.81%K -8.30%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.23%EV -0.038%E -0.015%K -0.026%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.98%EV -13.42%E -3.49%K -4.71%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-21 17:59
Svenska Spel🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.79%EV -11.45%E -4.81%K -8.30%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.23%EV -0.038%E -0.015%K -0.026%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.98%EV -13.42%E -3.49%K -4.71%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-21 17:59
1xBet🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 38.59%EV -12.20%E -5.17%K -8.97%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 38.92%EV -5.68%E -2.43%K -4.24%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.49%EV -8.92%E -2.20%K -2.93%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-21 18:09
LeoVegas🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 38.68%EV -13.69%E -5.90%K -10.37%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.39%EV -3.26%E -1.36%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.93%EV -15.67%E -4.18%K -5.70%G +0.000%11.4%2026-03-21 18:00
Winamax (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 37.60%EV -14.43%E -6.27%K -11.10%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 40.22%EV -13.34%E -6.20%K -11.60%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.17%EV -12.30%E -3.15%K -4.24%G +0.000%15.6%2026-03-21 18:04
Betclic (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 37.22%EV -14.43%E -6.27%K -11.10%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 39.82%EV -13.34%E -6.20%K -11.60%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 22.95%EV -16.12%E -4.32%K -5.90%G +0.000%16.8%2026-03-21 18:31
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (9)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.96I 51.02%NM 50.00%1.96I 51.02%NM 50.00%2.0%2026-03-21 18:45
theScore Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%4.8%2026-03-21 18:05
Bet Right🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%5.3%2026-03-21 18:09
betPARX🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.81%1.89I 52.91%NM 49.19%7.6%2026-03-21 18:00
Bally Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.81%1.89I 52.91%NM 49.19%7.6%2026-03-21 17:59
William Hill🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%7.9%2026-03-19 19:09
BetRivers🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.81%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.19%8.1%2026-03-21 17:59
Betr (AU)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%8.2%2026-03-20 19:04
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.05%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.95%9.0%2026-03-21 18:09