The School of Odds
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Bridgeport Islanders v Hershey Bears

Kickoff: 2026-04-21 23:10 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Bridgeport Islanders (Local)

Prediction 37.74%2.65fair odd
EV -3.76%
Edge -1.47%
Kelly -2.42%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.41%37.74%37.03%40.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.432.492.5547.62%41.23%40.16%39.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Hershey Bears (Visit)

Prediction 38.76%2.58fair odd
EV -2.71%
Edge -1.08%
Kelly -1.79%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.51

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.42%38.76%39.24%40.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.332.322.5144.44%42.91%43.10%39.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.50%4.26fair odd
EV -1.31%
Edge -0.312%
Kelly -0.410%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.46%23.50%23.73%24.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.753.943.954.2026.67%25.40%25.32%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Bridgeport Islanders (Local): 37.74%; Hershey Bears (Visit): 38.76%; Draw: 23.50%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.26. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.20, with an expected value of -1.31%; they did not produce positive expected value.

10 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.43%EV -3.76%E -1.47%K -2.42%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.05%EV -10.07%E -4.34%K -7.63%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.52%EV -7.19%E -1.82%K -2.44%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-21 19:40
Unibet (NL)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.43%EV -3.76%E -1.47%K -2.42%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.05%EV -10.07%E -4.34%K -7.63%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.52%EV -7.19%E -1.82%K -2.44%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-21 19:39
Casumo🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.43%EV -3.76%E -1.47%K -2.42%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.05%EV -10.07%E -4.34%K -7.63%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.52%EV -7.19%E -1.82%K -2.44%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-21 19:40
Grosvenor🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.43%EV -3.76%E -1.47%K -2.42%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.05%EV -10.07%E -4.34%K -7.63%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.52%EV -7.19%E -1.82%K -2.44%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-21 19:40
PMU (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.43%EV -3.76%E -1.47%K -2.42%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.05%EV -10.07%E -4.34%K -7.63%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.52%EV -7.19%E -1.82%K -2.44%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-21 19:40
ATG (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.43%EV -3.76%E -1.47%K -2.42%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.05%EV -10.07%E -4.34%K -7.63%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.52%EV -7.19%E -1.82%K -2.44%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-21 19:40
Svenska Spel🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.43%EV -3.76%E -1.47%K -2.42%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.05%EV -10.07%E -4.34%K -7.63%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.52%EV -7.19%E -1.82%K -2.44%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-21 19:40
Unibet (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.97%EV -5.65%E -2.26%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.33%EV -8.91%E -3.79%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.70%EV -8.36%E -2.14%K -2.88%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-21 22:59
LeoVegas🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 36.41%EV -6.40%E -2.58%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.13%EV -12.79%E -5.68%K -10.23%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.45%EV -9.54%E -2.48%K -3.35%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-21 19:40
Betway🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.78%EV -7.53%E -3.07%K -5.19%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.18%EV -10.85%E -4.72%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.03%EV -11.89%E -3.17%K -4.32%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-21 23:00
1xBet🎯2.44I 40.98%NM 37.35%EV -7.91%E -3.24%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 40.15%EV -12.01%E -5.29%K -9.46%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.50%EV -4.84%E -1.19%K -1.59%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-21 21:25
GTbets🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 39.82%EV -10.55%E -4.45%K -7.70%G +0.000%2.51I 39.84%NM 37.60%EV -2.71%E -1.08%K -1.79%G +0.000%4.18I 23.92%NM 22.58%EV -1.78%E -0.426%K -0.560%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-20 22:05
Betclic (FR)🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 39.47%EV -16.21%E -7.30%K -13.29%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 37.77%EV -10.07%E -4.34%K -7.63%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.76%EV -9.54%E -2.48%K -3.35%G +0.000%14.1%2026-04-21 22:35
Winamax (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.98%EV -16.97%E -7.71%K -14.14%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.56%EV -6.97%E -2.91%K -4.98%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.46%EV -1.31%E -0.312%K -0.410%G +0.000%10.9%2026-04-21 23:00
Unibet (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 39.44%EV -16.97%E -7.71%K -14.14%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.73%EV -10.85%E -4.72%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.83%EV -10.71%E -2.82%K -3.83%G +0.000%15.2%2026-04-21 22:45
Winamax (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 40.76%EV -20.74%E -9.88%K -18.86%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 36.42%EV -8.91%E -3.79%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.82%EV -11.89%E -3.17%K -4.32%G +0.000%16.8%2026-04-21 23:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (10)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.00I 50.00%NM 49.49%1.96I 51.02%NM 50.51%1.0%2026-04-21 23:00
Bet Right🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 51.05%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.95%5.3%2026-04-21 22:59
theScore Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%5.6%2026-04-21 23:00
Bally Bet🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.12%1.79I 55.87%NM 51.88%7.7%2026-04-21 19:40
betPARX🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.12%1.79I 55.87%NM 51.88%7.7%2026-04-21 19:40
William Hill🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%8.1%2026-04-21 23:00
Smarkets◎1.82I 54.95%NM 50.81%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.19%8.1%2026-04-21 19:35
Betr (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%8.2%2026-04-21 05:14
BetRivers🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.11%1.78I 56.18%NM 51.89%8.3%2026-04-21 19:39
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.95%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.05%9.0%2026-04-21 23:00