The School of Odds
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Bridgeport Islanders v Hartford Wolf Pack

Kickoff: 2026-04-12 21:10 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Bridgeport Islanders (Local)

Prediction 45.98%2.18fair odd
EV -7.59%
Edge -3.78%
Kelly -7.51%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.01

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.90%46.08%45.98%47.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.901.961.972.0152.63%50.95%50.76%49.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Hartford Wolf Pack (Visit)

Prediction 31.32%3.19fair odd
EV -1.34%
Edge -0.426%
Kelly -0.624%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.26%31.21%31.32%31.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.983.023.1537.04%33.53%33.06%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.70%4.40fair odd
EV -4.41%
Edge -1.05%
Kelly -1.38%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.21

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.24%22.72%22.70%24.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.633.903.854.2127.55%25.66%25.97%23.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Bridgeport Islanders (Local): 45.98%; Hartford Wolf Pack (Visit): 31.32%; Draw: 22.70%. For Hartford Wolf Pack (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.19. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.15, with an expected value of -1.34%; they did not produce positive expected value.

10 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.01I 49.75%NM 45.70%EV -7.59%E -3.78%K -7.51%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.90%EV -9.80%E -3.40%K -5.21%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.40%EV -6.91%E -1.69%K -2.23%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-12 20:45
Unibet (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.42%EV -8.05%E -4.02%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.94%EV -6.04%E -2.01%K -3.02%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV -6.91%E -1.69%K -2.23%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-12 04:29
Betway🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.42%EV -8.05%E -4.02%K -8.05%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.87%EV -10.74%E -3.77%K -5.80%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.71%EV -9.18%E -2.30%K -3.06%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-12 17:05
GTbets🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 47.06%EV -8.51%E -4.28%K -8.59%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.70%EV -4.47%E -1.47%K -2.18%G +0.000%4.21I 23.75%NM 22.24%EV -4.41%E -1.05%K -1.38%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-12 04:29
Codere (IT)🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 45.28%EV -8.51%E -4.28%K -8.59%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.62%EV -10.74%E -3.77%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.10%EV -11.45%E -2.94%K -3.95%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-12 17:10
Unibet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 46.67%EV -8.97%E -4.53%K -9.15%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.33%EV -1.34%E -0.426%K -0.624%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.00%EV -12.59%E -3.27%K -4.42%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-12 20:45
Winamax (DE)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 45.67%EV -8.97%E -4.53%K -9.15%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.73%EV -10.74%E -3.77%K -5.80%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.61%EV -9.18%E -2.30%K -3.06%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-12 17:05
PMU (FR)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 46.79%EV -9.43%E -4.79%K -9.72%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.26%EV -1.34%E -0.426%K -0.624%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.94%EV -12.59%E -3.27%K -4.42%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-12 20:45
Grosvenor🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 46.79%EV -9.43%E -4.79%K -9.72%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.26%EV -1.34%E -0.426%K -0.624%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.94%EV -12.59%E -3.27%K -4.42%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-12 20:45
Unibet (NL)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 46.79%EV -9.43%E -4.79%K -9.72%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.26%EV -1.34%E -0.426%K -0.624%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.94%EV -12.59%E -3.27%K -4.42%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-12 20:45
Casumo🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 46.79%EV -9.43%E -4.79%K -9.72%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.26%EV -1.34%E -0.426%K -0.624%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.94%EV -12.59%E -3.27%K -4.42%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-12 20:45
Svenska Spel🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 46.79%EV -9.43%E -4.79%K -9.72%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.26%EV -1.34%E -0.426%K -0.624%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.94%EV -12.59%E -3.27%K -4.42%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-12 20:45
ATG (SE)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 46.79%EV -9.43%E -4.79%K -9.72%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.26%EV -1.34%E -0.426%K -0.624%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.94%EV -12.59%E -3.27%K -4.42%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-12 20:45
LeoVegas🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 46.57%EV -11.27%E -5.84%K -12.12%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.47%EV -4.47%E -1.47%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.97%EV -14.86%E -3.96%K -5.40%G +0.000%11.3%2026-04-12 20:45
Unibet (FR)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 44.98%EV -11.27%E -5.84%K -12.12%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.56%EV -13.87%E -5.04%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.46%EV -15.99%E -4.32%K -5.92%G +0.000%15.2%2026-04-12 20:45
Tipico (DE)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 47.19%EV -12.65%E -6.66%K -14.05%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.39%EV -7.61%E -2.58%K -3.90%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.42%EV -9.18%E -2.30%K -3.06%G +0.000%11.5%2026-04-12 20:30
Winamax (FR)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 45.38%EV -12.65%E -6.66%K -14.05%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 31.93%EV -15.44%E -5.72%K -9.08%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.69%EV -13.72%E -3.61%K -4.90%G +0.000%16.0%2026-04-12 17:05
Betclic (FR)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 44.90%EV -12.65%E -6.66%K -14.05%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 31.60%EV -15.44%E -5.72%K -9.08%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 23.50%EV -17.58%E -4.84%K -6.69%G +0.000%17.2%2026-04-12 20:33
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (10)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
theScore Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%5.1%2026-04-12 17:05
Bet Right🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.95%2.26I 44.25%NM 42.05%5.2%2026-04-12 20:55
Kalshi◎1.64I 60.98%NM 57.51%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.49%6.0%2026-04-12 20:45
William Hill🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%7.2%2026-04-12 17:30
Betr (AU)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%7.6%2026-04-12 07:29
BetRivers🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.38%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.63%8.0%2026-04-12 20:45
Bally Bet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.38%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.63%8.0%2026-04-12 20:45
betPARX🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.38%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.63%8.0%2026-04-12 20:45
Smarkets◎1.62I 61.73%NM 57.14%2.16I 46.30%NM 42.86%8.0%2026-04-12 17:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.33%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%9.0%2026-04-12 20:55