The School of Odds
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Bridgeport Islanders v Hartford Wolf Pack

Kickoff: 2026-04-03 23:10 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Bridgeport Islanders (Local)

Prediction 44.82%2.23fair odd
EV +0.836%
Edge +0.371%
Kelly +0.669%
Growth +0.006%

assuming max odds 2.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.46%44.59%44.82%45.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.942.102.102.2551.55%47.54%47.62%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Hartford Wolf Pack (Visit)

Prediction 32.48%3.08fair odd
EV -2.55%
Edge -0.852%
Kelly -1.28%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.33%32.25%32.48%34.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.532.712.703.0039.53%36.95%37.04%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.70%4.40fair odd
EV -3.52%
Edge -0.827%
Kelly -1.08%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.00%23.16%22.70%25.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.913.954.2527.78%25.59%25.32%23.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Bridgeport Islanders (Local): 44.82%; Hartford Wolf Pack (Visit): 32.48%; Draw: 22.70%. For Bridgeport Islanders (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.23. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.836%.

10 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Svenska Spel🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.49%EV +0.836%E +0.371%K +0.669%G +0.006%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.57%EV -12.30%E -4.56%K -7.23%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.94%EV -11.46%E -2.94%K -3.95%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-03 23:00
Unibet (NL)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.17%EV -1.40%E -0.639%K -1.17%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -10.67%E -3.88%K -6.10%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.10%EV -12.60%E -3.27%K -4.42%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-03 23:00
Unibet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.16%EV -1.40%E -0.639%K -1.17%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.35%EV -12.30%E -4.56%K -7.23%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.48%EV -10.33%E -2.61%K -3.50%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-02 10:14
Casumo🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.16%EV -1.40%E -0.639%K -1.17%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.35%EV -12.30%E -4.56%K -7.23%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.48%EV -10.33%E -2.61%K -3.50%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-02 10:14
Grosvenor🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.16%EV -1.40%E -0.639%K -1.17%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.35%EV -12.30%E -4.56%K -7.23%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.48%EV -10.33%E -2.61%K -3.50%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-02 10:14
ATG (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.16%EV -1.40%E -0.639%K -1.17%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.35%EV -12.30%E -4.56%K -7.23%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.48%EV -10.33%E -2.61%K -3.50%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-02 10:15
GTbets🎯2.19I 45.66%NM 42.91%EV -1.85%E -0.846%K -1.56%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 34.55%EV -11.65%E -4.28%K -6.77%G +0.000%4.17I 23.98%NM 22.54%EV -5.33%E -1.28%K -1.68%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-01 23:29
LeoVegas🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 42.07%EV -4.09%E -1.91%K -3.59%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.23%EV -14.57%E -5.54%K -8.94%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.69%EV -13.73%E -3.61%K -4.90%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-03 22:19
PMU (FR)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 41.46%EV -4.99%E -2.35%K -4.46%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.47%EV -17.17%E -6.73%K -11.08%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.08%EV -17.14%E -4.70%K -6.47%G +0.000%13.8%2026-04-03 23:00
1xBet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.96%EV -6.78%E -3.26%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.83I 35.34%NM 33.04%EV -8.08%E -2.85%K -4.41%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.00%EV -3.52%E -0.827%K -1.08%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-03 22:55
Codere (IT)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 43.26%EV -6.78%E -3.26%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.96%EV -13.92%E -5.25%K -8.44%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.78%EV -10.33%E -2.61%K -3.50%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-03 22:40
Tipico (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.39%EV -8.13%E -3.96%K -7.74%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.33%EV -2.55%E -0.852%K -1.28%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -18.27%E -5.08%K -7.03%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-03 23:00
Unibet (UK)🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 45.80%EV -9.02%E -4.45%K -8.76%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.06%EV -5.80%E -2.00%K -3.05%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.14%EV -4.65%E -1.11%K -1.45%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-03 23:00
Betway🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.90%EV -10.37%E -5.18%K -10.37%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.65%EV -10.67%E -3.88%K -6.10%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.45%EV -9.19%E -2.30%K -3.06%G +0.000%11.4%2026-04-03 23:00
Winamax (DE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.50%EV -10.37%E -5.18%K -10.37%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.96%EV -12.30%E -4.56%K -7.23%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.53%EV -10.33%E -2.61%K -3.50%G +0.000%12.4%2026-04-03 23:00
Unibet (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 43.43%EV -10.37%E -5.18%K -10.37%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.41%EV -15.55%E -5.98%K -9.72%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.16%EV -14.87%E -3.96%K -5.41%G +0.000%15.1%2026-04-03 22:45
Betclic (FR)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 43.09%EV -11.26%E -5.69%K -11.49%G +0.000%2.53I 39.53%NM 33.72%EV -17.82%E -7.04%K -11.65%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 23.19%EV -16.46%E -4.47%K -6.14%G +0.000%17.2%2026-04-03 22:38
Winamax (FR)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 44.31%EV -13.06%E -6.73%K -13.89%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.06%EV -15.55%E -5.98%K -9.72%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.62%EV -13.73%E -3.61%K -4.90%G +0.000%16.3%2026-04-03 23:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (10)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.72I 58.14%NM 56.35%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.65%3.2%2026-04-03 23:00
Bet Right🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%5.3%2026-04-03 22:35
theScore Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%5.3%2026-04-03 22:40
betPARX🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.87%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.13%7.3%2026-04-03 23:00
William Hill🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%7.8%2026-04-01 23:29
Betr (AU)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 55.85%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.15%7.9%2026-04-03 22:30
Smarkets◎1.68I 59.52%NM 55.08%2.06I 48.54%NM 44.92%8.1%2026-04-03 22:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.41%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%9.4%2026-04-03 22:59
Bally Bet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.35%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.65%9.5%2026-04-03 23:00
BetRivers🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 53.97%1.97I 50.76%NM 46.03%10.3%2026-04-03 23:00