The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Belleville Senators v Springfield Thunderbirds

Kickoff: 2026-03-21 23:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Belleville Senators (Local)

Prediction 41.23%2.43fair odd
EV -3.11%
Edge -1.32%
Kelly -2.31%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.40%41.57%41.23%42.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.082.222.262.3548.08%44.98%44.25%42.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Springfield Thunderbirds (Visit)

Prediction 36.45%2.74fair odd
EV -4.14%
Edge -1.57%
Kelly -2.54%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.63

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.43%36.02%36.45%38.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.532.552.6343.48%39.59%39.22%38.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.32%4.48fair odd
EV -1.34%
Edge -0.302%
Kelly -0.390%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.42%22.41%22.32%23.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.094.104.4226.32%24.44%24.39%22.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Belleville Senators (Local): 41.23%; Springfield Thunderbirds (Visit): 36.45%; Draw: 22.32%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.48. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.42, with an expected value of -1.34%; they did not produce positive expected value.

10 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
GTbets🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.40%EV -3.11%E -1.32%K -2.31%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 38.13%EV -9.24%E -3.71%K -6.20%G +0.000%4.42I 22.62%NM 21.48%EV -1.34%E -0.302%K -0.390%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-21 09:05
Unibet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.27%EV -6.00%E -2.63%K -4.69%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.78%EV -4.14%E -1.57%K -2.54%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.95%EV -8.48%E -2.07%K -2.74%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-21 10:00
Grosvenor🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.27%EV -6.00%E -2.63%K -4.69%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.78%EV -4.14%E -1.57%K -2.54%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.95%EV -8.48%E -2.07%K -2.74%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-21 10:00
Casumo🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.27%EV -6.00%E -2.63%K -4.69%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.78%EV -4.14%E -1.57%K -2.54%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.95%EV -8.48%E -2.07%K -2.74%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-21 10:00
Unibet (NL)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.27%EV -6.00%E -2.63%K -4.69%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.78%EV -4.14%E -1.57%K -2.54%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.95%EV -8.48%E -2.07%K -2.74%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-21 09:59
Svenska Spel🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.27%EV -6.00%E -2.63%K -4.69%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.78%EV -4.14%E -1.57%K -2.54%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.95%EV -8.48%E -2.07%K -2.74%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-21 10:15
ATG (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.27%EV -6.00%E -2.63%K -4.69%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.78%EV -4.14%E -1.57%K -2.54%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.95%EV -8.48%E -2.07%K -2.74%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-21 10:14
Unibet (UK)🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 41.25%EV -6.41%E -2.82%K -5.05%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.72%EV -7.05%E -2.77%K -4.55%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.03%EV -5.13%E -1.21%K -1.58%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-21 10:00
1xBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.54%EV -7.24%E -3.22%K -5.79%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -12.52%E -5.22%K -8.94%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.46%EV -5.13%E -1.21%K -1.58%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-21 09:59
LeoVegas🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.33%EV -9.30%E -4.23%K -7.75%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.65%EV -7.05%E -2.77%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.02%EV -11.83%E -2.99%K -4.01%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-21 09:59
Betway🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.15%EV -9.30%E -4.23%K -7.75%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.21%EV -8.88%E -3.55%K -5.92%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.63%EV -10.71%E -2.68%K -3.57%G +0.000%10.5%2026-03-21 09:59
Codere (IT)🎯2.19I 45.66%NM 41.25%EV -9.71%E -4.43%K -8.16%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 36.72%EV -10.33%E -4.20%K -7.08%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.03%EV -8.48%E -2.07%K -2.74%G +0.000%10.7%2026-03-21 10:00
Winamax (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.85%EV -11.36%E -5.28%K -9.88%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.73%EV -10.70%E -4.37%K -7.38%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.42%EV -6.25%E -1.49%K -1.95%G +0.000%11.1%2026-03-21 07:55
Tipico (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.62%EV -13.42%E -6.39%K -12.20%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.43%EV -5.23%E -2.01%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.95%EV -12.94%E -3.32%K -4.46%G +0.000%11.7%2026-03-21 14:04
Winamax (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.02%EV -13.42%E -6.39%K -12.20%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.45%EV -16.17%E -7.03%K -12.44%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.53%EV -10.71%E -2.68%K -3.57%G +0.000%16.1%2026-03-21 09:59
Betclic (FR)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 40.98%EV -14.24%E -6.85%K -13.19%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 36.59%EV -15.07%E -6.47%K -11.33%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.43%EV -15.18%E -3.99%K -5.42%G +0.000%17.3%2026-03-21 22:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (10)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Bet Right🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%4.9%2026-03-21 20:54
theScore Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%5.6%2026-03-21 05:25
betPARX🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.96%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.04%7.9%2026-03-21 10:15
Bally Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.96%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.04%7.9%2026-03-21 10:14
William Hill🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%7.9%2026-03-21 10:15
Kalshi◎1.92I 52.08%NM 48.25%1.79I 55.87%NM 51.75%7.9%2026-03-21 22:34
Betr (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%8.2%2026-03-21 20:55
BetRivers🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.10%1.97I 50.76%NM 46.90%8.2%2026-03-21 09:59
Smarkets◎1.76I 56.82%NM 52.43%1.94I 51.55%NM 47.57%8.4%2026-03-21 11:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.45%1.93I 51.81%NM 47.55%9.0%2026-03-21 11:44