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Belleville Senators v Rochester Americans

Kickoff: 2026-10-04 19:04 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Belleville Senators (Local)

Prediction 39.71%2.52fair odd
EV -1.53%
Edge -0.616%
Kelly -1.03%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.48

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.59%39.68%39.71%40.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.362.332.4846.51%42.38%42.92%40.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Rochester Americans (Visit)

Prediction 38.81%2.58fair odd
EV -4.52%
Edge -1.84%
Kelly -3.09%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.46

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.38%38.76%38.81%39.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.282.352.352.4643.86%42.63%42.55%40.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.48%4.66fair odd
EV -4.63%
Edge -1.04%
Kelly -1.35%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.44

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.92%21.56%21.47%22.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.154.104.4426.32%24.09%24.39%22.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Belleville Senators (Local): 39.71%; Rochester Americans (Visit): 38.81%; Draw: 21.48%. For Belleville Senators (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.52. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.48, with an expected value of -1.53%; they did not produce positive expected value.

9 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.59%EV -1.53%E -0.616%K -1.03%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.67%EV -8.79%E -3.74%K -6.51%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.74%EV -11.93%E -2.91%K -3.85%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-04 02:15
Grosvenor🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.59%EV -1.53%E -0.616%K -1.03%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.67%EV -8.79%E -3.74%K -6.51%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.74%EV -11.93%E -2.91%K -3.85%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-04 02:15
Unibet (NL)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.59%EV -1.53%E -0.616%K -1.03%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.67%EV -8.79%E -3.74%K -6.51%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.74%EV -11.93%E -2.91%K -3.85%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-04 02:15
Casumo🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.59%EV -1.53%E -0.616%K -1.03%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.67%EV -8.79%E -3.74%K -6.51%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.74%EV -11.93%E -2.91%K -3.85%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-04 02:15
PMU (FR)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.59%EV -1.53%E -0.616%K -1.03%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.67%EV -8.79%E -3.74%K -6.51%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.74%EV -11.93%E -2.91%K -3.85%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-04 02:15
ATG (SE)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.59%EV -1.53%E -0.616%K -1.03%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.67%EV -8.79%E -3.74%K -6.51%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.74%EV -11.93%E -2.91%K -3.85%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-04 02:15
Svenska Spel🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.59%EV -1.53%E -0.616%K -1.03%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.67%EV -8.79%E -3.74%K -6.51%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.74%EV -11.93%E -2.91%K -3.85%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-04 02:15
GTbets🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.34%EV -4.70%E -1.96%K -3.36%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 38.38%EV -4.52%E -1.84%K -3.09%G +0.000%4.24I 23.58%NM 22.27%EV -8.93%E -2.11%K -2.75%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-03 22:25
Unibet (UK)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.90%EV -7.48%E -3.21%K -5.63%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.73%EV -6.85%E -2.85%K -4.89%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.37%EV -6.56%E -1.51%K -1.96%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-03 22:25
1xBet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.30%EV -7.88%E -3.40%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 38.64%EV -6.07%E -2.51%K -4.27%G +0.000%4.44I 22.52%NM 21.06%EV -4.63%E -1.04%K -1.35%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-04 18:56
Betway🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -8.68%E -3.77%K -6.67%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -10.73%E -4.66%K -8.25%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.10%EV -7.64%E -1.78%K -2.31%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-04 19:00
Codere (IT)🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 39.70%EV -9.87%E -4.35%K -7.77%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 38.84%EV -9.95%E -4.29%K -7.54%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.46%EV -9.79%E -2.33%K -3.06%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-03 22:25
Winamax (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.98%EV -10.66%E -4.74%K -8.53%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.11%EV -10.73%E -4.66%K -8.25%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.92%EV -7.64%E -1.78%K -2.31%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-03 22:25
Tipico (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.68%EV -10.66%E -4.74%K -8.53%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.99%EV -8.79%E -3.74%K -6.51%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.32%EV -14.08%E -3.52%K -4.69%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-04 19:00
Unibet (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.68%EV -10.66%E -4.74%K -8.53%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.81%EV -10.73%E -4.66%K -8.25%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 21.51%EV -10.86%E -2.62%K -3.45%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-04 18:50
Betclic (FR)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 39.65%EV -11.45%E -5.14%K -9.31%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 38.78%EV -11.50%E -5.05%K -8.99%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.57%EV -11.93%E -2.91%K -3.85%G +0.000%13.1%2026-10-03 22:23
Winamax (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 39.99%EV -14.63%E -6.81%K -12.72%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.38%EV -10.73%E -4.66%K -8.25%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.63%EV -18.38%E -4.84%K -6.56%G +0.000%16.3%2026-10-04 19:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (9)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
theScore Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%4.7%2026-10-04 19:00
Bet Right🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 50.26%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.74%5.3%2026-10-04 18:20
Betr (AU)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%7.0%2026-10-04 15:55
Bally Bet🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 49.19%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.81%7.6%2026-10-04 02:14
betPARX🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 49.19%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.81%7.6%2026-10-04 02:14
Smarkets◎1.83I 54.64%NM 50.54%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.46%8.1%2026-10-04 07:05
BetRivers🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.19%1.82I 54.95%NM 50.81%8.1%2026-10-04 02:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%9.3%2026-10-03 22:25
Kalshi◎1.54I 64.94%NM 46.34%1.33I 75.19%NM 53.66%40.1%2026-10-04 19:00