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Bakersfield Condors v San Diego Gulls

Kickoff: 2026-04-12 02:10 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Bakersfield Condors (Local)

Prediction 39.06%2.56fair odd
EV -3.13%
Edge -1.26%
Kelly -2.12%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.48

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.46%39.60%39.06%41.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.372.382.4846.51%42.28%42.02%40.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

San Diego Gulls (Visit)

Prediction 38.38%2.61fair odd
EV -4.45%
Edge -1.79%
Kelly -2.98%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.49

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.21%38.11%38.38%38.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.372.402.4944.44%42.21%41.67%40.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.57%4.43fair odd
EV -4.32%
Edge -1.02%
Kelly -1.33%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.24

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.26%22.29%22.57%23.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.753.963.904.2426.67%25.23%25.64%23.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Bakersfield Condors (Local): 39.06%; San Diego Gulls (Visit): 38.38%; Draw: 22.57%. For Bakersfield Condors (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.56. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.48, with an expected value of -3.13%; they did not produce positive expected value.

10 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.46%EV -3.13%E -1.26%K -2.12%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.71%EV -7.90%E -3.29%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.82%EV -11.99%E -3.08%K -4.14%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-11 08:14
Unibet (NL)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.46%EV -3.13%E -1.26%K -2.12%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.71%EV -7.90%E -3.29%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.82%EV -11.99%E -3.08%K -4.14%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-11 08:14
PMU (FR)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.46%EV -3.13%E -1.26%K -2.12%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.71%EV -7.90%E -3.29%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.82%EV -11.99%E -3.08%K -4.14%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-11 08:14
Casumo🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.46%EV -3.13%E -1.26%K -2.12%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.71%EV -7.90%E -3.29%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.82%EV -11.99%E -3.08%K -4.14%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-11 08:15
Grosvenor🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.46%EV -3.13%E -1.26%K -2.12%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.71%EV -7.90%E -3.29%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.82%EV -11.99%E -3.08%K -4.14%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-11 08:14
ATG (SE)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.46%EV -3.13%E -1.26%K -2.12%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.71%EV -7.90%E -3.29%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.82%EV -11.99%E -3.08%K -4.14%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-11 08:15
Svenska Spel🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.46%EV -3.13%E -1.26%K -2.12%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.71%EV -7.90%E -3.29%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.82%EV -11.99%E -3.08%K -4.14%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-11 08:15
LeoVegas🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.51%EV -6.26%E -2.61%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 38.80%EV -10.97%E -4.73%K -8.31%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.69%EV -14.25%E -3.75%K -5.09%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-11 08:14
GTbets🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.66%EV -7.04%E -2.96%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 37.91%EV -4.45%E -1.79%K -2.98%G +0.000%4.21I 23.75%NM 22.42%EV -5.00%E -1.19%K -1.56%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-12 01:54
Unibet (UK)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.88%EV -7.04%E -2.96%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.55%EV -7.90%E -3.29%K -5.64%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.57%EV -7.48%E -1.82%K -2.41%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-11 21:04
1xBet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.18%EV -8.99%E -3.86%K -6.76%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.75%EV -4.83%E -1.95%K -3.26%G +0.000%4.24I 23.58%NM 22.08%EV -4.32%E -1.02%K -1.33%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-12 01:59
Codere (IT)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 38.84%EV -9.38%E -4.04%K -7.11%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.35%EV -9.82%E -4.18%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.81%EV -10.87%E -2.75%K -3.68%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-11 21:04
Betway🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.16%EV -10.16%E -4.42%K -7.82%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.33%EV -9.82%E -4.18%K -7.27%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.52%EV -9.74%E -2.43%K -3.25%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-12 02:05
Winamax (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.78%EV -12.12%E -5.39%K -9.69%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.91%EV -11.74%E -5.10%K -9.03%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.31%EV -5.22%E -1.24%K -1.63%G +0.000%11.7%2026-04-12 02:04
Unibet (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 38.58%EV -12.12%E -5.39%K -9.69%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 38.58%EV -13.66%E -6.07%K -10.92%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.84%EV -14.25%E -3.75%K -5.09%G +0.000%15.2%2026-04-12 01:45
Betclic (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 38.46%EV -12.12%E -5.39%K -9.69%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 38.46%EV -13.66%E -6.07%K -10.92%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.08%EV -15.38%E -4.10%K -5.59%G +0.000%15.6%2026-04-12 02:00
Winamax (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 39.11%EV -14.07%E -6.40%K -11.73%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 38.24%EV -13.66%E -6.07%K -10.92%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.64%EV -14.25%E -3.75%K -5.09%G +0.000%16.2%2026-04-12 02:05
Tipico (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.53%EV -16.02%E -7.45%K -13.93%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.21%EV -7.90%E -3.29%K -5.64%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.26%EV -5.22%E -1.24%K -1.63%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-12 01:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (10)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.89I 52.91%NM 51.41%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.59%2.9%2026-04-12 02:05
theScore Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%4.7%2026-04-12 02:04
Bet Right🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%5.3%2026-04-12 00:20
betPARX🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.60%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.40%7.2%2026-04-11 08:14
Bally Bet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.60%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.40%7.2%2026-04-11 08:15
William Hill🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%7.9%2026-04-12 02:05
Smarkets◎1.84I 54.35%NM 50.27%1.86I 53.76%NM 49.73%8.1%2026-04-11 21:05
BetRivers🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.73%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.27%8.7%2026-04-11 08:14
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%9.3%2026-04-11 18:50
Betr (AU)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%9.3%2026-04-11 17:40