The School of Odds
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Bakersfield Condors v Coachella Valley Firebirds

Kickoff: 2026-04-24 02:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Bakersfield Condors (Local)

Prediction 39.70%2.52fair odd
EV -7.09%
Edge -3.03%
Kelly -5.29%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.34

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.47%39.70%39.64%40.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.252.282.3446.51%44.35%43.86%42.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Coachella Valley Firebirds (Visit)

Prediction 37.50%2.67fair odd
EV -2.50%
Edge -0.960%
Kelly -1.56%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.84%37.50%37.70%37.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.502.522.6043.48%40.02%39.60%38.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.79%4.39fair odd
EV -4.27%
Edge -1.02%
Kelly -1.33%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.46%22.79%22.67%23.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.753.994.004.2026.67%25.06%25.00%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Bakersfield Condors (Local): 39.70%; Coachella Valley Firebirds (Visit): 37.50%; Draw: 22.79%. For Coachella Valley Firebirds (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.67. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.60, with an expected value of -2.50%; they did not produce positive expected value.

10 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
GTbets🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 40.39%EV -7.09%E -3.03%K -5.29%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.06%EV -4.37%E -1.71%K -2.82%G +0.000%4.19I 23.87%NM 22.55%EV -4.49%E -1.07%K -1.41%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-23 12:25
Unibet (UK)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.69%EV -7.49%E -3.21%K -5.63%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.75%EV -8.12%E -3.32%K -5.60%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.56%EV -6.54%E -1.60%K -2.11%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-24 02:10
Betway🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -8.68%E -3.77%K -6.68%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.83%EV -10.00%E -4.17%K -7.14%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.70%EV -8.82%E -2.21%K -2.94%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-24 02:10
Unibet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.87%EV -9.47%E -4.15%K -7.40%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.84%EV -2.50%E -0.960%K -1.56%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.29%EV -8.82%E -2.21%K -2.94%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-24 00:30
Casumo🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.87%EV -9.47%E -4.15%K -7.40%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.84%EV -2.50%E -0.960%K -1.56%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.29%EV -8.82%E -2.21%K -2.94%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-24 00:30
Unibet (NL)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.87%EV -9.47%E -4.15%K -7.40%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.84%EV -2.50%E -0.960%K -1.56%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.29%EV -8.82%E -2.21%K -2.94%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-24 00:30
Grosvenor🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.87%EV -9.47%E -4.15%K -7.40%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.84%EV -2.50%E -0.960%K -1.56%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.29%EV -8.82%E -2.21%K -2.94%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-24 00:29
PMU (FR)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.87%EV -9.47%E -4.15%K -7.40%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.84%EV -2.50%E -0.960%K -1.56%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.29%EV -8.82%E -2.21%K -2.94%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-24 00:29
ATG (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.87%EV -9.47%E -4.15%K -7.40%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.84%EV -2.50%E -0.960%K -1.56%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.29%EV -8.82%E -2.21%K -2.94%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-24 00:29
Svenska Spel🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.87%EV -9.47%E -4.15%K -7.40%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.84%EV -2.50%E -0.960%K -1.56%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.29%EV -8.82%E -2.21%K -2.94%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-24 00:29
1xBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.53%EV -10.66%E -4.74%K -8.53%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.22%EV -8.12%E -3.32%K -5.60%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.24%EV -6.54%E -1.60%K -2.11%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-24 02:05
Winamax (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.98%EV -12.65%E -5.75%K -10.54%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.56%EV -10.00%E -4.17%K -7.14%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.46%EV -4.27%E -1.02%K -1.33%G +0.000%10.9%2026-04-24 02:10
LeoVegas🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.79%EV -12.65%E -5.75%K -10.54%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.90%EV -6.25%E -2.50%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.31%EV -12.24%E -3.18%K -4.30%G +0.000%11.4%2026-04-24 00:29
Betclic (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 39.95%EV -12.65%E -5.75%K -10.54%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 36.93%EV -10.75%E -4.52%K -7.79%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.13%EV -13.38%E -3.52%K -4.78%G +0.000%13.8%2026-04-24 01:43
Unibet (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.19%EV -14.63%E -6.81%K -12.73%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 36.77%EV -11.87%E -5.05%K -8.79%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.04%EV -14.52%E -3.87%K -5.28%G +0.000%15.7%2026-04-24 01:55
Winamax (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.11%EV -14.63%E -6.81%K -12.73%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.49%EV -13.75%E -5.98%K -10.57%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.40%EV -12.24%E -3.18%K -4.30%G +0.000%16.0%2026-04-23 02:44
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (10)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.85I 54.05%NM 52.44%2.04I 49.02%NM 47.56%3.1%2026-04-24 02:10
theScore Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%4.8%2026-04-24 02:00
Bet Right🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 51.58%1.96I 51.02%NM 48.42%5.4%2026-04-22 23:50
betPARX🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.96%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.04%7.9%2026-04-24 00:29
Bally Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.96%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.04%7.9%2026-04-24 00:30
William Hill🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%7.9%2026-04-23 02:29
Betr (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%8.2%2026-04-23 02:20
Smarkets◎1.79I 55.87%NM 51.62%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.38%8.2%2026-04-23 14:14
BetRivers🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 52.97%1.96I 51.02%NM 47.03%8.5%2026-04-24 00:29
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.77%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.23%9.1%2026-04-23 02:19