The School of Odds
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VfL Gummersbach v TBV Lemgo

Kickoff: 2026-03-05 18:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

VfL Gummersbach (Local)

Prediction 61.22%1.63fair odd
EV -5.72%
Edge -3.71%
Kelly -10.59%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.54

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.53%61.67%60.97%65.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.441.491.501.5469.44%67.17%66.67%64.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

TBV Lemgo (Visit)

Prediction 28.72%3.48fair odd
EV +14.90%
Edge +3.72%
Kelly +4.97%
Growth +0.740%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.81%28.25%29.17%30.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.233.204.0034.48%31.00%31.25%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 10.05%9.95fair odd
EV +0.535%
Edge +0.053%
Kelly +0.059%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 10.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
9.18%10.08%9.85%11.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.009.179.5010.0012.50%10.91%10.53%10.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: VfL Gummersbach (Local): 61.22%; TBV Lemgo (Visit): 28.72%; Draw: 10.05%. For TBV Lemgo (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.48. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +14.90%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.67%EV -11.23%E -7.74%K -24.95%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV +14.90%E +3.72%K +4.97%G +0.740%9.05I 11.05%NM 10.52%EV -9.02%E -0.996%K -1.12%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-05 13:55
Marathon Bet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 62.80%EV -10.62%E -7.27%K -23.08%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 27.45%EV -4.06%E -1.22%K -1.73%G +0.000%9.40I 10.64%NM 9.75%EV -5.50%E -0.585%K -0.654%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-05 14:19
Casumo🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.02%EV -8.17%E -5.45%K -16.34%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.19%EV -5.21%E -1.58%K -2.26%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.79%EV -4.49%E -0.473%K -0.528%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-05 14:20
Grosvenor🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.02%EV -8.17%E -5.45%K -16.34%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.19%EV -5.21%E -1.58%K -2.26%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.79%EV -4.49%E -0.473%K -0.528%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-05 14:20
LiveScore Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.02%EV -8.17%E -5.45%K -16.34%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.19%EV -5.21%E -1.58%K -2.26%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.79%EV -4.49%E -0.473%K -0.528%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-05 14:20
Virgin Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.02%EV -8.17%E -5.45%K -16.34%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.19%EV -5.21%E -1.58%K -2.26%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.79%EV -4.49%E -0.473%K -0.528%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-05 14:20
LeoVegas🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.02%EV -8.17%E -5.45%K -16.34%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.19%EV -5.21%E -1.58%K -2.26%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.79%EV -4.49%E -0.473%K -0.528%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-05 14:20
Unibet (NL)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.02%EV -8.17%E -5.45%K -16.34%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.19%EV -5.21%E -1.58%K -2.26%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.79%EV -4.49%E -0.473%K -0.528%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-05 14:20
Svenska Spel🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.02%EV -8.17%E -5.45%K -16.34%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.19%EV -5.21%E -1.58%K -2.26%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.79%EV -4.49%E -0.473%K -0.528%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-05 14:19
ATG (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.02%EV -8.17%E -5.45%K -16.34%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.19%EV -5.21%E -1.58%K -2.26%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.79%EV -4.49%E -0.473%K -0.528%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-05 14:20
Unibet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.02%EV -8.17%E -5.45%K -16.34%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.19%EV -5.21%E -1.58%K -2.26%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.79%EV -4.49%E -0.473%K -0.528%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-05 14:20
Unibet (UK)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.85%EV -5.72%E -3.71%K -10.59%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.28%EV -8.08%E -2.53%K -3.67%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.86%EV -4.49%E -0.473%K -0.528%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-05 15:29
888sport🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.35%EV -11.84%E -8.22%K -26.91%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.61%EV -8.08%E -2.53%K -3.67%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.04%EV -19.57%E -2.45%K -2.80%G +0.000%13.2%2026-03-05 17:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.35%EV -11.84%E -8.22%K -26.91%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.61%EV -8.08%E -2.53%K -3.67%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.04%EV -19.57%E -2.45%K -2.80%G +0.000%13.2%2026-03-05 16:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.35%EV -11.84%E -8.22%K -26.91%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.61%EV -8.08%E -2.53%K -3.67%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.04%EV -19.57%E -2.45%K -2.80%G +0.000%13.2%2026-03-05 17:55
Winamax (DE)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 60.88%EV -6.94%E -4.57%K -13.35%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.38%EV -9.52%E -3.02%K -4.43%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.74%EV -4.49%E -0.473%K -0.528%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-05 15:30
Tipico (DE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.20%EV -8.17%E -5.45%K -16.34%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.62%EV -10.95%E -3.53%K -5.22%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.18%EV +0.535%E +0.053%K +0.059%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-05 15:35
Paddy Power🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.59%EV -8.17%E -5.45%K -16.34%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -10.95%E -3.53%K -5.22%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.10%EV -9.52%E -1.06%K -1.19%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-05 15:30
Betsson🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 60.27%EV -7.56%E -5.00%K -14.81%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.84%EV -12.39%E -4.06%K -6.04%G +0.000%9.20I 10.87%NM 9.89%EV -7.51%E -0.816%K -0.916%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-05 15:30
NordicBet🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 60.27%EV -7.56%E -5.00%K -14.81%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.84%EV -12.39%E -4.06%K -6.04%G +0.000%9.20I 10.87%NM 9.89%EV -7.51%E -0.816%K -0.916%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-05 15:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 60.32%EV -9.39%E -6.35%K -19.57%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.76%EV -13.83%E -4.61%K -6.91%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.92%EV -9.52%E -1.06%K -1.19%G +0.000%12.0%2026-03-05 09:50
Coral🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 60.32%EV -9.39%E -6.35%K -19.57%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.76%EV -13.83%E -4.61%K -6.91%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.92%EV -9.52%E -1.06%K -1.19%G +0.000%12.0%2026-03-05 09:50
Winamax (FR)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 59.53%EV -10.00%E -6.81%K -21.29%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.18%EV -16.70%E -5.76%K -8.79%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.30%EV -14.55%E -1.71%K -1.94%G +0.000%14.3%2026-03-05 15:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.46I 68.49%NM 59.37%2.86I 34.97%NM 30.31%8.40I 11.90%NM 10.32%15.4%2026-03-05 15:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.45I 68.97%NM 36.36%3.45I 28.99%NM 15.28%1.09I 91.74%NM 48.36%89.7%2026-03-05 17:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.45I 68.97%NM 36.36%3.45I 28.99%NM 15.28%1.09I 91.74%NM 48.36%89.7%2026-03-05 17:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.45I 68.97%NM 36.36%3.45I 28.99%NM 15.28%1.09I 91.74%NM 48.36%89.7%2026-03-05 17:55

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Pinnacle🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 71.12%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%6.5%2026-03-05 17:00