The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

VfL Gummersbach v SG Flensburg-Handewitt

Kickoff: 2026-10-25 17:00 UTC

Final: VfL Gummersbach 31–30 SG Flensburg-Handewitt

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

VfL Gummersbach (Local)

Prediction 34.08%2.93fair odd
EV -2.19%
Edge -0.762%
Kelly -1.17%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.87

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.88%33.86%34.06%35.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.682.632.8739.22%37.34%38.02%34.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

SG Flensburg-Handewitt (Visit)

Prediction 54.57%1.83fair odd
EV -6.68%
Edge -3.91%
Kelly -9.41%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.71

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.43%54.97%54.58%57.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.571.671.691.7163.69%59.80%59.17%58.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 11.34%8.81fair odd
EV +13.45%
Edge +1.34%
Kelly +1.49%
Growth +0.201%

assuming max odds 10.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
9.24%11.16%11.35%12.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.007.938.0010.0014.29%12.62%12.50%10.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: VfL Gummersbach (Local): 34.08%; SG Flensburg-Handewitt (Visit): 54.57%; Draw: 11.34%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.81. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 10.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +13.45%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.00%EV -4.57%E -1.63%K -2.54%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.76%EV -12.68%E -7.93%K -21.13%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.24%EV +13.45%E +1.34%K +1.49%G +0.201%8.2%2026-10-25 16:45
Unibet (UK)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.00%EV -6.28%E -2.28%K -3.59%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.00%EV -7.22%E -4.25%K -10.32%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.00%EV -3.57%E -0.420%K -0.476%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-25 16:50
NordicBet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.17%EV -7.98%E -2.96%K -4.69%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 54.58%EV -7.77%E -4.60%K -11.26%G +0.000%8.20I 12.20%NM 11.25%EV -6.97%E -0.851%K -0.969%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-25 16:55
Betsson🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.17%EV -7.98%E -2.96%K -4.69%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 54.58%EV -7.77%E -4.60%K -11.26%G +0.000%8.20I 12.20%NM 11.25%EV -6.97%E -0.851%K -0.969%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-25 16:55
Codere (IT)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.06%EV -7.98%E -2.96%K -4.69%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 54.73%EV -8.31%E -4.95%K -12.23%G +0.000%8.20I 12.20%NM 11.21%EV -6.97%E -0.851%K -0.969%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-25 16:55
Winamax (DE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.18%EV -7.98%E -2.96%K -4.69%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.28%EV -7.22%E -4.25%K -10.32%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.54%EV -9.24%E -1.16%K -1.32%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-25 16:55
Tipico (DE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.82%EV -4.57%E -1.63%K -2.54%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 55.69%EV -9.95%E -6.03%K -15.31%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.49%EV -9.24%E -1.16%K -1.32%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-25 16:55
Virgin Bet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.88%EV -10.37%E -3.94%K -6.36%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 53.65%EV -6.68%E -3.91%K -9.41%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.47%EV -9.24%E -1.16%K -1.32%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-24 07:10
Unibet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.88%EV -10.37%E -3.94%K -6.36%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 53.65%EV -6.68%E -3.91%K -9.41%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.47%EV -9.24%E -1.16%K -1.32%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-24 07:10
Casumo🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.88%EV -10.37%E -3.94%K -6.36%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 53.65%EV -6.68%E -3.91%K -9.41%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.47%EV -9.24%E -1.16%K -1.32%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-24 07:10
Grosvenor🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.88%EV -10.37%E -3.94%K -6.36%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 53.65%EV -6.68%E -3.91%K -9.41%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.47%EV -9.24%E -1.16%K -1.32%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-24 07:10
Svenska Spel🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.88%EV -10.37%E -3.94%K -6.36%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 53.65%EV -6.68%E -3.91%K -9.41%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.47%EV -9.24%E -1.16%K -1.32%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-24 07:10
ATG (SE)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.88%EV -10.37%E -3.94%K -6.36%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 53.65%EV -6.68%E -3.91%K -9.41%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.47%EV -9.24%E -1.16%K -1.32%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-24 07:10
LiveScore Bet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.88%EV -10.37%E -3.94%K -6.36%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 53.65%EV -6.68%E -3.91%K -9.41%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.47%EV -9.24%E -1.16%K -1.32%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-24 07:10
Unibet (NL)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.14%EV -11.39%E -4.38%K -7.12%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 53.43%EV -6.68%E -3.91%K -9.41%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.42%EV -9.24%E -1.16%K -1.32%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-24 07:09
Betclic (FR)🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 34.27%EV -12.07%E -4.68%K -7.64%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 54.25%EV -11.04%E -6.78%K -17.53%G +0.000%7.70I 12.99%NM 11.48%EV -12.65%E -1.64%K -1.89%G +0.000%13.1%2026-10-25 16:53
Paddy Power🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.59%EV -7.98%E -2.96%K -4.69%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 54.31%EV -8.86%E -5.31%K -13.22%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.09%EV -14.92%E -1.99%K -2.29%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-25 16:50
888sport🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.27%EV -10.71%E -4.09%K -6.61%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 53.76%EV -8.86%E -5.31%K -13.22%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.97%EV -14.92%E -1.99%K -2.29%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-24 05:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.27%EV -10.71%E -4.09%K -6.61%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 53.76%EV -8.86%E -5.31%K -13.22%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.97%EV -14.92%E -1.99%K -2.29%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-24 05:39
888sport (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.27%EV -10.71%E -4.09%K -6.61%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 53.76%EV -8.86%E -5.31%K -13.22%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.97%EV -14.92%E -1.99%K -2.29%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-24 05:40
Winamax (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 34.32%EV -13.09%E -5.13%K -8.45%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 54.02%EV -11.59%E -7.15%K -18.69%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.67%EV -14.92%E -1.99%K -2.29%G +0.000%14.3%2026-10-25 16:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.87I 34.84%NM 30.88%EV -2.19%E -0.762%K -1.17%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 56.45%EV -14.32%E -9.12%K -25.12%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.66%EV -20.59%E -2.94%K -3.43%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-25 16:55
Coral🎯2.87I 34.84%NM 30.88%EV -2.19%E -0.762%K -1.17%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 56.45%EV -14.32%E -9.12%K -25.12%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.66%EV -20.59%E -2.94%K -3.43%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-25 16:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎2.52I 39.68%NM 34.41%1.61I 62.11%NM 53.87%7.40I 13.51%NM 11.72%15.3%2026-10-25 16:55

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Pinnacle🎯2.66I 37.59%NM 35.59%1.47I 68.03%NM 64.41%5.6%2026-10-25 16:55