Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

VfL Gummersbach v HSG Wetzlar

Kickoff: 2026-04-09 17:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

1 sportsbook (1 in analysis )

89%

11%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

VfL Gummersbach (Local)

Prediction 89.14%1.12fair odd

EV -6.40%

Edge -6.10%

Kelly -128.02%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

89.14%89.14%89.14%89.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.051.051.051.0595.24%95.24%95.24%95.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

HSG Wetzlar (Visit)

Prediction 10.86%9.21fair odd

EV -6.40%

Edge -0.743%

Kelly -0.840%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 8.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

10.86%10.86%10.86%10.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

8.628.628.628.6211.60%11.60%11.60%11.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: VfL Gummersbach (Local): 89.14%; HSG Wetzlar (Visit): 10.86%. For HSG Wetzlar (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 9.21. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 8.62, with an expected value of -6.40%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (1 sportsbook)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Pinnacle🎯	1.05I 95.24%NM 89.14%EV -6.40%E -6.10%K -128.02%G +0.000%	8.62I 11.60%NM 10.86%EV -6.40%E -0.743%K -0.840%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-04-09 14:20

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.