Language:English
VfL Gummersbach v GWD Minden
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
VfL Gummersbach (Local)
Prediction 87.02%1.15fair odd
EV -5.15%
Edge -4.73%
Kelly -57.25%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.09
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
83.94%87.10%87.06%90.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.031.061.051.0997.09%94.65%95.24%91.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
GWD Minden (Visit)
Prediction 7.93%12.61fair odd
EV +34.86%
Edge +2.05%
Kelly +2.18%
Growth +0.759%
assuming max odds 17.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
5.48%7.77%7.91%9.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
9.5011.8610.8817.0010.53%8.43%9.20%5.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 5.05%19.80fair odd
EV +23.75%
Edge +0.969%
Kelly +1.01%
Growth +0.240%
assuming max odds 24.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
3.70%5.12%5.03%6.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
13.0017.1915.0024.507.69%5.82%6.67%4.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: VfL Gummersbach (Local): 87.02%; GWD Minden (Visit): 7.93%; Draw: 5.05%. For GWD Minden (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 12.61. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 17.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +34.86%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 90.47%EV -10.37%E -10.07%K -345.78%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.48%EV +34.86%E +2.05%K +2.18%G +0.759% | 23.00I 4.35%NM 4.05%EV +16.17%E +0.703%K +0.735%G +0.119% | 7.3% | 2026-05-23 09:49 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 90.47%EV -10.37%E -10.07%K -345.78%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.48%EV +34.86%E +2.05%K +2.18%G +0.759% | 23.00I 4.35%NM 4.05%EV +16.17%E +0.703%K +0.735%G +0.119% | 7.3% | 2026-05-23 09:49 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 89.16%EV -10.37%E -10.07%K -345.78%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.74%EV +26.93%E +1.68%K +1.80%G +0.483% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.10%EV -9.08%E -0.505%K -0.534%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-05-23 09:49 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 89.72%EV -9.50%E -9.14%K -237.58%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.22%EV +18.99%E +1.27%K +1.36%G +0.258% | 23.00I 4.35%NM 4.06%EV +16.17%E +0.703%K +0.735%G +0.119% | 7.2% | 2026-05-23 17:39 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 88.89%EV -8.63%E -8.22%K -172.66%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.67%EV +11.06%E +0.790%K +0.851%G +0.094% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.44%EV +6.07%E +0.289%K +0.303%G +0.018% | 7.1% | 2026-05-23 17:39 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 88.67%EV -8.63%E -8.22%K -172.66%G +0.000% | 13.50I 7.41%NM 6.90%EV +7.09%E +0.525%K +0.568%G +0.040% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.43%EV +6.07%E +0.289%K +0.303%G +0.018% | 7.4% | 2026-05-23 09:49 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 87.31%EV -5.15%E -4.73%K -57.25%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.93%EV -4.81%E -0.400%K -0.437%G +0.000% | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.76%EV +1.02%E +0.051%K +0.054%G +0.001% | 5.1% | 2026-05-23 10:57 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 87.61%EV -9.50%E -9.14%K -237.58%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.59%EV -4.81%E -0.400%K -0.437%G +0.000% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 4.80%EV -4.03%E -0.212%K -0.224%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-05-23 17:39 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 87.38%EV -9.50%E -9.14%K -237.58%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.57%EV -4.81%E -0.400%K -0.437%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.05%EV -9.08%E -0.505%K -0.534%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-23 09:49 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 87.38%EV -9.50%E -9.14%K -237.58%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.57%EV -4.81%E -0.400%K -0.437%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.05%EV -9.08%E -0.505%K -0.534%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-23 09:49 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 85.14%EV -9.50%E -9.14%K -237.58%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.05%EV -12.74%E -1.16%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 6.81%EV -34.34%E -2.64%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-05-23 17:09 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 85.14%EV -9.50%E -9.14%K -237.58%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.05%EV -12.74%E -1.16%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 6.81%EV -34.34%E -2.64%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-05-23 17:10 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 85.14%EV -9.50%E -9.14%K -237.58%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.05%EV -12.74%E -1.16%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 6.81%EV -34.34%E -2.64%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-05-23 17:10 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 85.88%EV -6.89%E -6.44%K -98.47%G +0.000% | 10.75I 9.30%NM 8.55%EV -14.72%E -1.37%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 16.50I 6.06%NM 5.57%EV -16.66%E -1.01%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-23 10:29 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 85.12%EV -6.02%E -5.58%K -75.28%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.75%EV -16.70%E -1.59%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.13%EV -24.24%E -1.62%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-22 09:20 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 85.12%EV -6.02%E -5.58%K -75.28%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.75%EV -16.70%E -1.59%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.13%EV -24.24%E -1.62%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-22 09:19 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 85.12%EV -6.02%E -5.58%K -75.28%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.75%EV -16.70%E -1.59%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.13%EV -24.24%E -1.62%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-22 09:20 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 85.12%EV -6.02%E -5.58%K -75.28%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.75%EV -16.70%E -1.59%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.13%EV -24.24%E -1.62%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-22 09:20 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 85.12%EV -6.02%E -5.58%K -75.28%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.75%EV -16.70%E -1.59%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.13%EV -24.24%E -1.62%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-22 09:20 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 85.12%EV -6.02%E -5.58%K -75.28%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.75%EV -16.70%E -1.59%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.13%EV -24.24%E -1.62%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-22 09:20 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 85.12%EV -6.02%E -5.58%K -75.28%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.75%EV -16.70%E -1.59%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.13%EV -24.24%E -1.62%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-22 09:19 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 85.12%EV -6.02%E -5.58%K -75.28%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.75%EV -16.70%E -1.59%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.13%EV -24.24%E -1.62%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-22 09:20 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 85.12%EV -6.02%E -5.58%K -75.28%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.75%EV -16.70%E -1.59%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.13%EV -24.24%E -1.62%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-22 09:20 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 87.23%EV -9.50%E -9.14%K -237.58%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.07%EV -20.67%E -2.07%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 24.50I 4.08%NM 3.70%EV +23.75%E +0.969%K +1.01%G +0.240% | 10.2% | 2026-05-23 17:49 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 85.35%EV -10.37%E -10.07%K -345.78%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.79%EV -20.67%E -2.07%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 5.86%EV -24.24%E -1.62%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-05-23 17:39 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 83.94%EV -8.63%E -8.22%K -172.66%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.28%EV -24.64%E -2.59%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 6.78%EV -34.34%E -2.64%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 13.5% | 2026-05-22 09:20 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (1)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 1.03I 97.09%NM 84.35% | 9.20I 10.87%NM 9.44% | 14.01I 7.14%NM 6.20% | 15.1% | 2026-05-23 17:39 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.38% | 8.84I 11.31%NM 10.62% | 6.6% | 2026-05-23 17:39 |