The School of Odds
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VfL Gummersbach v Bergischer HC

Kickoff: 2026-09-27 14:31 UTC

Final: VfL Gummersbach 38–30 Bergischer HC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

VfL Gummersbach (Local)

Prediction 80.96%1.24fair odd
EV -6.09%
Edge -5.25%
Kelly -38.04%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.16

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
77.91%80.93%80.93%82.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.101.131.131.1690.91%88.22%88.50%86.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Bergischer HC (Visit)

Prediction 12.21%8.19fair odd
EV +9.90%
Edge +1.10%
Kelly +1.24%
Growth +0.122%

assuming max odds 9.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.20%12.18%12.25%14.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.107.087.009.0016.39%14.12%14.29%11.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 6.83%14.64fair odd
EV -0.983%
Edge -0.068%
Kelly -0.073%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 14.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
6.39%6.89%6.82%8.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
10.0012.6112.5014.5010.00%7.93%8.00%6.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: VfL Gummersbach (Local): 80.96%; Bergischer HC (Visit): 12.21%; Draw: 6.83%. For Bergischer HC (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.19. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 9.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +9.90%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 82.73%EV -10.13%E -9.13%K -92.13%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.20%EV +9.90%E +1.10%K +1.24%G +0.122%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.06%EV -11.23%E -0.864%K -0.936%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-26 22:04
Paddy Power🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 82.78%EV -10.94%E -9.95%K -109.44%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.71%EV +3.79%E +0.446%K +0.506%G +0.019%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.50%EV -4.40%E -0.314%K -0.338%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-26 22:04
Winamax (DE)🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 82.02%EV -8.51%E -7.54%K -65.50%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.59%EV -2.31%E -0.289%K -0.330%G +0.000%14.50I 6.90%NM 6.39%EV -0.983%E -0.068%K -0.073%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-26 22:05
Unibet (UK)🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 81.84%EV -8.51%E -7.54%K -65.50%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.56%EV -2.31%E -0.289%K -0.330%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.61%EV -4.40%E -0.314%K -0.338%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-26 22:04
Codere (IT)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 81.97%EV -9.32%E -8.33%K -77.70%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.48%EV -2.31%E -0.289%K -0.330%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.56%EV -4.40%E -0.314%K -0.338%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-27 14:20
Coolbet🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 81.40%EV -7.71%E -6.76%K -55.04%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.97%EV -5.37%E -0.692%K -0.795%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.63%EV -4.40%E -0.314%K -0.338%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-26 22:10
Betclic (FR)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 80.78%EV -10.13%E -9.13%K -92.13%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.81%EV -14.52%E -2.07%K -2.42%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.41%EV -4.40%E -0.314%K -0.338%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-27 14:24
888sport🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 79.79%EV -9.32%E -8.33%K -77.70%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.77%EV -14.52%E -2.07%K -2.42%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.45%EV -18.06%E -1.50%K -1.64%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-27 12:49
888sport (SE)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 79.79%EV -9.32%E -8.33%K -77.70%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.77%EV -14.52%E -2.07%K -2.42%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.45%EV -18.06%E -1.50%K -1.64%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-27 12:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 79.79%EV -9.32%E -8.33%K -77.70%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.77%EV -14.52%E -2.07%K -2.42%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.45%EV -18.06%E -1.50%K -1.64%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-27 12:50
Winamax (FR)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 80.08%EV -10.94%E -9.95%K -109.44%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.58%EV -14.52%E -2.07%K -2.42%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.34%EV -18.06%E -1.50%K -1.64%G +0.000%13.5%2026-09-27 14:20
Betsson🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 78.92%EV -10.94%E -9.95%K -109.44%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.40%EV -14.52%E -2.07%K -2.42%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.68%EV -31.71%E -3.17%K -3.52%G +0.000%15.2%2026-09-27 14:20
NordicBet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 78.92%EV -10.94%E -9.95%K -109.44%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.40%EV -14.52%E -2.07%K -2.42%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.68%EV -31.71%E -3.17%K -3.52%G +0.000%15.2%2026-09-27 14:25
Marathon Bet🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 78.88%EV -6.09%E -5.25%K -38.04%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.08%EV -20.63%E -3.17%K -3.75%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.04%EV -11.23%E -0.864%K -0.936%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-27 12:55
Virgin Bet🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 78.66%EV -6.09%E -5.25%K -38.04%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.04%EV -20.63%E -3.17%K -3.75%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.30%EV -14.64%E -1.17%K -1.27%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-27 08:00
Grosvenor🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 78.66%EV -6.09%E -5.25%K -38.04%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.04%EV -20.63%E -3.17%K -3.75%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.30%EV -14.64%E -1.17%K -1.27%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-27 08:05
Casumo🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 78.66%EV -6.09%E -5.25%K -38.04%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.04%EV -20.63%E -3.17%K -3.75%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.30%EV -14.64%E -1.17%K -1.27%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-27 08:00
LiveScore Bet🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 78.66%EV -6.09%E -5.25%K -38.04%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.04%EV -20.63%E -3.17%K -3.75%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.30%EV -14.64%E -1.17%K -1.27%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-27 08:05
Svenska Spel🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 78.66%EV -6.09%E -5.25%K -38.04%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.04%EV -20.63%E -3.17%K -3.75%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.30%EV -14.64%E -1.17%K -1.27%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-27 08:00
ATG (SE)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 78.66%EV -6.09%E -5.25%K -38.04%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.04%EV -20.63%E -3.17%K -3.75%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.30%EV -14.64%E -1.17%K -1.27%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-27 08:05
Unibet (NL)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 78.66%EV -6.09%E -5.25%K -38.04%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.04%EV -20.63%E -3.17%K -3.75%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.30%EV -14.64%E -1.17%K -1.27%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-27 08:00
Unibet🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 78.66%EV -6.09%E -5.25%K -38.04%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.04%EV -20.63%E -3.17%K -3.75%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.30%EV -14.64%E -1.17%K -1.27%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-27 08:00
PMU (FR)🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 77.91%EV -8.51%E -7.54%K -65.50%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.43%EV -25.51%E -4.18%K -5.00%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.66%EV -21.47%E -1.87%K -2.04%G +0.000%13.6%2026-09-27 08:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.10I 90.91%NM 78.95%6.60I 15.15%NM 13.16%11.00I 9.09%NM 7.89%15.2%2026-09-27 14:20

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Pinnacle🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 83.53%5.68I 17.61%NM 16.47%6.9%2026-09-27 12:25