The School of Odds
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TVB Stuttgart v TBV Lemgo

Kickoff: 2026-10-04 14:30 UTC

Final: TVB Stuttgart 27–30 TBV Lemgo

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

25 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

TVB Stuttgart (Local)

Prediction 42.28%2.37fair odd
EV -6.99%
Edge -3.18%
Kelly -5.83%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.10%42.56%42.29%44.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.152.152.2048.78%46.62%46.51%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

TBV Lemgo (Visit)

Prediction 45.56%2.19fair odd
EV -4.32%
Edge -2.06%
Kelly -3.93%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.18%45.50%45.41%46.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.891.981.982.1052.91%50.47%50.51%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 12.16%8.22fair odd
EV +8.26%
Edge +0.928%
Kelly +1.05%
Growth +0.086%

assuming max odds 8.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.60%11.94%12.30%14.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.007.677.508.9016.67%13.04%13.33%11.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: TVB Stuttgart (Local): 42.28%; TBV Lemgo (Visit): 45.56%; Draw: 12.16%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.22. 10 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.90, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.26%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.49%EV -10.38%E -4.89%K -9.26%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.91%EV -4.32%E -2.06%K -3.93%G +0.000%8.90I 11.24%NM 10.60%EV +8.26%E +0.928%K +1.05%G +0.086%6.0%2026-10-04 12:45
Marathon Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.69%EV -11.22%E -5.34%K -10.20%G +0.000%2.01I 49.75%NM 45.64%EV -8.42%E -4.19%K -8.34%G +0.000%8.60I 11.63%NM 10.67%EV +4.61%E +0.536%K +0.607%G +0.028%9.0%2026-10-04 14:23
LiveScore Bet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.42%EV -7.84%E -3.60%K -6.64%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 46.70%EV -9.79%E -4.94%K -9.99%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.88%EV +3.40%E +0.400%K +0.453%G +0.015%8.1%2026-10-04 11:40
Unibet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.42%EV -7.84%E -3.60%K -6.64%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 46.70%EV -9.79%E -4.94%K -9.99%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.88%EV +3.40%E +0.400%K +0.453%G +0.015%8.1%2026-10-04 11:40
Virgin Bet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.42%EV -7.84%E -3.60%K -6.64%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 46.70%EV -9.79%E -4.94%K -9.99%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.88%EV +3.40%E +0.400%K +0.453%G +0.015%8.1%2026-10-04 11:40
Unibet (NL)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.32%EV -7.84%E -3.60%K -6.64%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 46.83%EV -10.25%E -5.20%K -10.56%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.85%EV +3.40%E +0.400%K +0.453%G +0.015%8.4%2026-10-04 11:40
Casumo🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.32%EV -7.84%E -3.60%K -6.64%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 46.83%EV -10.25%E -5.20%K -10.56%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.85%EV +3.40%E +0.400%K +0.453%G +0.015%8.4%2026-10-04 11:40
Grosvenor🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.32%EV -7.84%E -3.60%K -6.64%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 46.83%EV -10.25%E -5.20%K -10.56%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.85%EV +3.40%E +0.400%K +0.453%G +0.015%8.4%2026-10-04 11:40
Svenska Spel🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.32%EV -7.84%E -3.60%K -6.64%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 46.83%EV -10.25%E -5.20%K -10.56%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.85%EV +3.40%E +0.400%K +0.453%G +0.015%8.4%2026-10-04 11:40
ATG (SE)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.32%EV -7.84%E -3.60%K -6.64%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 46.83%EV -10.25%E -5.20%K -10.56%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.85%EV +3.40%E +0.400%K +0.453%G +0.015%8.4%2026-10-04 11:40
Tipico (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.79%EV -9.11%E -4.24%K -7.92%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.00%EV -8.88%E -4.44%K -8.88%G +0.000%8.20I 12.20%NM 11.22%EV -0.253%E -0.031%K -0.035%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-04 14:25
Unibet (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.78%EV -6.99%E -3.18%K -5.83%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.96%EV -8.88%E -4.44%K -8.88%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.26%EV -8.77%E -1.17%K -1.35%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-04 12:50
Winamax (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.78%EV -6.99%E -3.18%K -5.83%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.96%EV -8.88%E -4.44%K -8.88%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.26%EV -8.77%E -1.17%K -1.35%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-04 12:50
PMU (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.82%EV -11.22%E -5.34%K -10.20%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 46.47%EV -13.89%E -7.35%K -15.61%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.71%EV -8.77%E -1.17%K -1.35%G +0.000%13.9%2026-10-04 11:40
Codere (IT)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.62%EV -6.99%E -3.18%K -5.83%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 46.01%EV -9.34%E -4.69%K -9.43%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.37%EV -9.98%E -1.35%K -1.56%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-04 12:55
Betclic (FR)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 41.68%EV -10.38%E -4.89%K -9.26%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 45.78%EV -12.07%E -6.25%K -12.98%G +0.000%7.05I 14.18%NM 12.53%EV -14.24%E -2.02%K -2.35%G +0.000%13.2%2026-10-04 14:20
Paddy Power🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.42%EV -6.99%E -3.18%K -5.83%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.56%EV -8.88%E -4.44%K -8.88%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.02%EV -14.85%E -2.12%K -2.47%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-04 12:50
888sport🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.55%EV -11.22%E -5.34%K -10.20%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.68%EV -8.88%E -4.44%K -8.88%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.77%EV -14.85%E -2.12%K -2.47%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-04 14:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.55%EV -11.22%E -5.34%K -10.20%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.68%EV -8.88%E -4.44%K -8.88%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.77%EV -14.85%E -2.12%K -2.47%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-04 14:20
888sport (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.55%EV -11.22%E -5.34%K -10.20%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.68%EV -8.88%E -4.44%K -8.88%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.77%EV -14.85%E -2.12%K -2.47%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-04 14:20
Winamax (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.78%EV -11.22%E -5.34%K -10.20%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 45.69%EV -12.52%E -6.52%K -13.61%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.53%EV -14.85%E -2.12%K -2.47%G +0.000%14.0%2026-10-04 12:50
Betsson🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.66%EV -13.34%E -6.50%K -12.70%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 44.85%EV -11.16%E -5.72%K -11.74%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.49%EV -14.85%E -2.12%K -2.47%G +0.000%14.3%2026-10-04 14:20
NordicBet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.66%EV -13.34%E -6.50%K -12.70%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 44.85%EV -11.16%E -5.72%K -11.74%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.49%EV -14.85%E -2.12%K -2.47%G +0.000%14.3%2026-10-04 14:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.10%EV -9.11%E -4.24%K -7.92%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.18%EV -8.88%E -4.44%K -8.88%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.73%EV -27.01%E -4.50%K -5.40%G +0.000%13.2%2026-10-04 14:20
Coral🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.10%EV -9.11%E -4.24%K -7.92%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.18%EV -8.88%E -4.44%K -8.88%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.73%EV -27.01%E -4.50%K -5.40%G +0.000%13.2%2026-10-04 14:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Pinnacle🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%5.2%2026-10-04 13:05