The School of Odds
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TVB Stuttgart v Füchse Berlin

Kickoff: 2026-09-06 14:29 UTC

Final: TVB Stuttgart 33–34 Füchse Berlin

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

TVB Stuttgart (Local)

Prediction 23.31%4.29fair odd
EV +2.56%
Edge +0.581%
Kelly +0.752%
Growth +0.019%

assuming max odds 4.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.46%23.47%23.12%26.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.884.004.4030.30%25.80%25.00%22.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Füchse Berlin (Visit)

Prediction 67.74%1.48fair odd
EV -3.80%
Edge -2.68%
Kelly -9.05%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.80%67.35%67.93%69.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.321.361.351.4275.76%73.65%74.07%70.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 8.95%11.18fair odd
EV -1.58%
Edge -0.144%
Kelly -0.158%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 11.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.36%9.18%8.95%11.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.009.869.8711.0012.50%10.15%10.13%9.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: TVB Stuttgart (Local): 23.31%; Füchse Berlin (Visit): 67.74%; Draw: 8.95%. For TVB Stuttgart (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.29. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.40, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.56%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.46%EV +2.56%E +0.581%K +0.752%G +0.019%1.35I 74.07%NM 69.95%EV -8.54%E -6.33%K -24.41%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.59%EV -1.58%E -0.144%K -0.158%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-06 12:05
Tipico (DE)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -2.10%E -0.501%K -0.657%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 69.72%EV -10.58%E -8.01%K -33.05%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.37%EV -1.58%E -0.144%K -0.158%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-06 14:25
NordicBet🎯4.03I 24.81%NM 23.13%EV -6.07%E -1.51%K -2.00%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 67.54%EV -6.51%E -4.72%K -17.14%G +0.000%9.99I 10.01%NM 9.33%EV -10.62%E -1.06%K -1.18%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-06 14:22
Unibet (UK)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.11%EV -6.77%E -1.69%K -2.26%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 68.48%EV -8.54%E -6.33%K -24.41%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.40%EV -1.58%E -0.144%K -0.158%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-06 13:40
Codere (IT)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -6.77%E -1.69%K -2.26%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 68.64%EV -9.22%E -6.88%K -27.12%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.36%EV -1.58%E -0.144%K -0.158%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-06 14:25
888sport🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.46%EV -6.77%E -1.69%K -2.26%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 67.55%EV -9.90%E -7.44%K -30.00%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.98%EV -19.48%E -2.16%K -2.43%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-06 13:50
888sport (SE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.46%EV -6.77%E -1.69%K -2.26%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 67.55%EV -9.90%E -7.44%K -30.00%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.98%EV -19.48%E -2.16%K -2.43%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-06 13:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.46%EV -6.77%E -1.69%K -2.26%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 67.55%EV -9.90%E -7.44%K -30.00%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.98%EV -19.48%E -2.16%K -2.43%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-06 13:50
Marathon Bet🎯3.96I 25.25%NM 23.15%EV -7.70%E -1.94%K -2.60%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 67.91%EV -8.54%E -6.33%K -24.41%G +0.000%10.25I 9.76%NM 8.94%EV -8.29%E -0.809%K -0.897%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-06 14:14
Winamax (DE)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -16.09%E -4.47%K -6.19%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 65.37%EV -3.80%E -2.68%K -9.05%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.84%EV -6.06%E -0.577%K -0.638%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-06 14:25
Paddy Power🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.31%EV -16.09%E -4.47%K -6.19%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 65.09%EV -5.16%E -3.68%K -12.89%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.59%EV -15.00%E -1.58%K -1.77%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-06 14:25
Betsson🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.87%EV -16.09%E -4.47%K -6.19%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 63.94%EV -5.16%E -3.68%K -12.89%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.19%EV -28.42%E -3.55%K -4.06%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-06 14:24
Betclic (FR)🎯3.57I 28.01%NM 24.81%EV -16.79%E -4.70%K -6.53%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 66.10%EV -9.22%E -6.88%K -27.12%G +0.000%9.75I 10.26%NM 9.08%EV -12.77%E -1.31%K -1.46%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-06 14:25
Winamax (FR)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 26.49%EV -23.08%E -6.99%K -10.04%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 63.80%EV -7.19%E -5.25%K -19.43%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.71%EV -19.48%E -2.16%K -2.43%G +0.000%14.4%2026-09-06 14:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎3.45I 28.99%NM 25.12%1.32I 75.76%NM 65.66%9.40I 10.64%NM 9.22%15.4%2026-09-06 14:25

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Pinnacle🎯3.91I 25.58%NM 23.93%1.23I 81.30%NM 76.07%6.9%2026-09-06 13:20