The School of Odds
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TSV Hannover-Burgdorf v TBV Lemgo

Kickoff: 2026-10-23 18:00 UTC

Final: TSV Hannover-Burgdorf 26–29 TBV Lemgo

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

TSV Hannover-Burgdorf (Local)

Prediction 49.25%2.03fair odd
EV -4.95%
Edge -2.57%
Kelly -5.32%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.93

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.13%49.27%49.24%51.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.721.841.831.9358.14%54.31%54.64%51.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

TBV Lemgo (Visit)

Prediction 39.12%2.56fair odd
EV -2.60%
Edge -1.04%
Kelly -1.74%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.49

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.96%39.26%39.11%40.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.362.372.4944.44%42.40%42.19%40.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 11.63%8.60fair odd
EV +5.87%
Edge +0.645%
Kelly +0.724%
Growth +0.042%

assuming max odds 9.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.26%11.47%11.65%12.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.008.018.009.1014.29%12.49%12.50%10.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: TSV Hannover-Burgdorf (Local): 49.25%; TBV Lemgo (Visit): 39.12%; Draw: 11.63%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.60. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 9.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.87%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.65%EV -9.88%E -5.40%K -11.90%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 37.96%EV -2.60%E -1.04%K -1.74%G +0.000%9.10I 10.99%NM 10.39%EV +5.87%E +0.645%K +0.724%G +0.042%5.8%2026-10-23 09:39
Winamax (DE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.28%EV -11.35%E -6.31%K -14.19%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -6.12%E -2.55%K -4.37%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.26%EV +4.70%E +0.523%K +0.588%G +0.028%8.3%2026-10-23 12:54
Virgin Bet🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 51.08%EV -10.86%E -6.00%K -13.41%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.05%EV -4.94%E -2.03%K -3.46%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.88%EV -1.11%E -0.131%K -0.148%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-23 09:54
Casumo🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 51.08%EV -10.86%E -6.00%K -13.41%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.05%EV -4.94%E -2.03%K -3.46%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.88%EV -1.11%E -0.131%K -0.148%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-23 09:54
ATG (SE)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 51.08%EV -10.86%E -6.00%K -13.41%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.05%EV -4.94%E -2.03%K -3.46%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.88%EV -1.11%E -0.131%K -0.148%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-23 09:55
Svenska Spel🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 51.08%EV -10.86%E -6.00%K -13.41%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.05%EV -4.94%E -2.03%K -3.46%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.88%EV -1.11%E -0.131%K -0.148%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-23 09:54
Unibet🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 51.08%EV -10.86%E -6.00%K -13.41%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.05%EV -4.94%E -2.03%K -3.46%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.88%EV -1.11%E -0.131%K -0.148%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-23 09:55
Grosvenor🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 51.08%EV -10.86%E -6.00%K -13.41%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.05%EV -4.94%E -2.03%K -3.46%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.88%EV -1.11%E -0.131%K -0.148%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-23 09:54
LiveScore Bet🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 51.08%EV -10.86%E -6.00%K -13.41%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.05%EV -4.94%E -2.03%K -3.46%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.88%EV -1.11%E -0.131%K -0.148%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-23 09:55
Winamax (FR)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 50.84%EV -15.29%E -8.89%K -21.24%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 38.87%EV -11.98%E -5.33%K -9.59%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.29%EV -1.11%E -0.131%K -0.148%G +0.000%14.3%2026-10-23 12:55
Unibet (UK)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.28%EV -6.43%E -3.38%K -7.14%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.01%EV -6.12%E -2.55%K -4.37%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -6.93%E -0.866%K -0.990%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-23 12:54
NordicBet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.30%EV -7.41%E -3.94%K -8.42%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 39.11%EV -7.29%E -3.08%K -5.32%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.59%EV -6.93%E -0.866%K -0.990%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-23 12:55
Betsson🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.30%EV -7.41%E -3.94%K -8.42%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 39.11%EV -7.29%E -3.08%K -5.32%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.59%EV -6.93%E -0.866%K -0.990%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-23 12:55
Tipico (DE)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.64%EV -4.95%E -2.57%K -5.32%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.87%EV -11.98%E -5.33%K -9.59%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.49%EV -6.93%E -0.866%K -0.990%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-23 13:00
Unibet (NL)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 50.49%EV -10.86%E -6.00%K -13.41%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.08%EV -6.12%E -2.55%K -4.37%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.42%EV -6.93%E -0.866%K -0.990%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-23 09:54
Codere (IT)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 49.18%EV -8.40%E -4.52%K -9.77%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 39.09%EV -8.46%E -3.62%K -6.32%G +0.000%7.80I 12.82%NM 11.73%EV -9.26%E -1.19%K -1.36%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-23 13:00
Betclic (FR)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.11%EV -8.89%E -4.81%K -10.46%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 39.16%EV -9.25%E -3.99%K -7.00%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.72%EV -9.84%E -1.27%K -1.46%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-23 12:53
Paddy Power🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.03%EV -9.88%E -5.40%K -11.90%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.01%EV -10.03%E -4.36%K -7.71%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.96%EV -12.75%E -1.70%K -1.96%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-23 12:54
888sport🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.13%EV -5.94%E -3.11%K -6.52%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.01%EV -11.98%E -5.33%K -9.59%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.86%EV -18.56%E -2.65%K -3.09%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-23 13:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.13%EV -5.94%E -3.11%K -6.52%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.01%EV -11.98%E -5.33%K -9.59%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.86%EV -18.56%E -2.65%K -3.09%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-23 13:25
888sport (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.13%EV -5.94%E -3.11%K -6.52%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.01%EV -11.98%E -5.33%K -9.59%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.86%EV -18.56%E -2.65%K -3.09%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-23 13:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.61%EV -9.88%E -5.40%K -11.90%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.68%EV -10.03%E -4.36%K -7.71%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.71%EV -18.56%E -2.65%K -3.09%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-23 12:20
Coral🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.61%EV -9.88%E -5.40%K -11.90%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.68%EV -10.03%E -4.36%K -7.71%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.71%EV -18.56%E -2.65%K -3.09%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-23 12:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.78I 56.18%NM 48.80%2.22I 45.05%NM 39.13%7.20I 13.89%NM 12.07%15.1%2026-10-23 12:55

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Pinnacle🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%5.3%2026-10-23 15:18