The School of Odds
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TSV Hannover-Burgdorf v MT Melsungen

Kickoff: 2026-06-07 13:00 UTC

Final: TSV Hannover-Burgdorf 32–32 MT Melsungen

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

26 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

TSV Hannover-Burgdorf (Local)

Prediction 55.86%1.79fair odd
EV +3.35%
Edge +1.81%
Kelly +3.94%
Growth +0.132%

assuming max odds 1.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.46%55.32%55.83%57.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.551.631.621.8564.52%61.36%61.73%54.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

MT Melsungen (Visit)

Prediction 33.34%3.00fair odd
EV -3.98%
Edge -1.38%
Kelly -2.12%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.07%33.85%33.29%38.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.772.752.8840.00%36.15%36.30%34.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 10.80%9.26fair odd
EV -1.77%
Edge -0.194%
Kelly -0.218%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 9.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.19%10.82%10.88%11.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.508.308.509.1013.33%12.05%11.76%10.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: TSV Hannover-Burgdorf (Local): 55.86%; MT Melsungen (Visit): 33.34%; Draw: 10.80%. For TSV Hannover-Burgdorf (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.79. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.85, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.35%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.46%EV +3.35%E +1.81%K +3.94%G +0.132%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.08%EV -16.65%E -6.66%K -11.10%G +0.000%9.10I 10.99%NM 10.46%EV -1.77%E -0.194%K -0.218%G +0.000%5.0%2026-06-07 10:49
Winamax (DE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 55.92%EV -7.27%E -4.38%K -11.01%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.15%EV -6.65%E -2.37%K -3.69%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.92%EV -8.24%E -0.970%K -1.10%G +0.000%7.7%2026-06-05 13:49
Unibet (UK)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.07%EV -7.82%E -4.74%K -12.04%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.04%EV -6.65%E -2.37%K -3.69%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.88%EV -8.24%E -0.970%K -1.10%G +0.000%8.1%2026-06-07 01:09
Tipico (DE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.73%EV -7.82%E -4.74%K -12.04%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.06%EV -9.98%E -3.70%K -5.87%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.22%EV -2.84%E -0.316%K -0.356%G +0.000%8.8%2026-06-07 12:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.32%EV -7.82%E -4.74%K -12.04%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.47%EV -13.31%E -5.12%K -8.32%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.20%EV -13.64%E -1.70%K -1.95%G +0.000%11.6%2026-06-05 13:49
Coral🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.32%EV -7.82%E -4.74%K -12.04%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.47%EV -13.31%E -5.12%K -8.32%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.20%EV -13.64%E -1.70%K -1.95%G +0.000%11.6%2026-06-05 13:49
Codere (IT)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 55.82%EV -8.38%E -5.11%K -13.10%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.29%EV -8.31%E -3.02%K -4.75%G +0.000%8.40I 11.90%NM 10.90%EV -9.32%E -1.11%K -1.26%G +0.000%9.2%2026-06-06 13:09
NordicBet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 55.97%EV -8.94%E -5.49%K -14.19%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.17%EV -8.31%E -3.02%K -4.75%G +0.000%8.40I 11.90%NM 10.86%EV -9.32%E -1.11%K -1.26%G +0.000%9.6%2026-06-05 17:10
Betsson🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 55.97%EV -8.94%E -5.49%K -14.19%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.17%EV -8.31%E -3.02%K -4.75%G +0.000%8.40I 11.90%NM 10.86%EV -9.32%E -1.11%K -1.26%G +0.000%9.6%2026-06-05 17:10
LiveScore Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.04%EV -9.50%E -5.86%K -15.32%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.09%EV -3.98%E -1.38%K -2.12%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.87%EV -8.24%E -0.970%K -1.10%G +0.000%8.2%2026-06-05 15:59
Grosvenor🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.04%EV -9.50%E -5.86%K -15.32%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.09%EV -3.98%E -1.38%K -2.12%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.87%EV -8.24%E -0.970%K -1.10%G +0.000%8.2%2026-06-05 16:00
Virgin Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.04%EV -9.50%E -5.86%K -15.32%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.09%EV -3.98%E -1.38%K -2.12%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.87%EV -8.24%E -0.970%K -1.10%G +0.000%8.2%2026-06-05 16:00
Casumo🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.04%EV -9.50%E -5.86%K -15.32%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.09%EV -3.98%E -1.38%K -2.12%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.87%EV -8.24%E -0.970%K -1.10%G +0.000%8.2%2026-06-05 16:00
LeoVegas🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.04%EV -9.50%E -5.86%K -15.32%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.09%EV -3.98%E -1.38%K -2.12%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.87%EV -8.24%E -0.970%K -1.10%G +0.000%8.2%2026-06-05 15:59
Unibet (NL)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.04%EV -9.50%E -5.86%K -15.32%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.09%EV -3.98%E -1.38%K -2.12%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.87%EV -8.24%E -0.970%K -1.10%G +0.000%8.2%2026-06-05 15:59
ATG (SE)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.04%EV -9.50%E -5.86%K -15.32%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.09%EV -3.98%E -1.38%K -2.12%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.87%EV -8.24%E -0.970%K -1.10%G +0.000%8.2%2026-06-05 16:00
Svenska Spel🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.04%EV -9.50%E -5.86%K -15.32%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.09%EV -3.98%E -1.38%K -2.12%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.87%EV -8.24%E -0.970%K -1.10%G +0.000%8.2%2026-06-05 15:59
Unibet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.04%EV -9.50%E -5.86%K -15.32%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.09%EV -3.98%E -1.38%K -2.12%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.87%EV -8.24%E -0.970%K -1.10%G +0.000%8.2%2026-06-05 16:09
Marathon Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.59%EV -9.50%E -5.86%K -15.32%G +0.000%2.76I 36.23%NM 33.22%EV -7.98%E -2.89%K -4.53%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.19%EV -2.84%E -0.316%K -0.356%G +0.000%9.1%2026-06-07 11:48
Paddy Power🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.15%EV -9.50%E -5.86%K -15.32%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.48%EV -6.65%E -2.37%K -3.69%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.37%EV -13.64%E -1.70%K -1.95%G +0.000%9.9%2026-06-05 13:50
888sport🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 55.55%EV -10.06%E -6.25%K -16.49%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.52%EV -8.31%E -3.02%K -4.75%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.93%EV -19.04%E -2.54%K -2.93%G +0.000%11.8%2026-06-07 01:19
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 55.55%EV -10.06%E -6.25%K -16.49%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.52%EV -8.31%E -3.02%K -4.75%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.93%EV -19.04%E -2.54%K -2.93%G +0.000%11.8%2026-06-07 01:19
888sport (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 55.55%EV -10.06%E -6.25%K -16.49%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.52%EV -8.31%E -3.02%K -4.75%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.93%EV -19.04%E -2.54%K -2.93%G +0.000%11.8%2026-06-07 01:19
Betclic (FR)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 55.40%EV -10.62%E -6.64%K -17.70%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.45%EV -11.65%E -4.40%K -7.06%G +0.000%7.95I 12.58%NM 11.15%EV -14.18%E -1.78%K -2.04%G +0.000%12.8%2026-06-07 12:49
Winamax (FR)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 54.95%EV -12.85%E -8.24%K -22.95%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 33.62%EV -14.98%E -5.87%K -9.67%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.43%EV -19.04%E -2.54%K -2.93%G +0.000%16.7%2026-06-05 17:09
PMU (FR)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 56.90%EV -13.41%E -8.65%K -24.38%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.07%EV -8.31%E -3.02%K -4.75%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.02%EV -13.64%E -1.70%K -1.95%G +0.000%13.4%2026-06-05 15:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.57I 63.69%NM 55.09%2.58I 38.76%NM 33.53%7.60I 13.16%NM 11.38%15.6%2026-06-05 17:09

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Pinnacle🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.66%2.61I 38.31%NM 36.34%5.4%2026-06-07 11:00