The School of Odds
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TSV Hannover-Burgdorf v Frisch Auf Göppingen

Kickoff: 2026-09-27 13:00 UTC

Final: TSV Hannover-Burgdorf 36–28 Frisch Auf Göppingen

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

TSV Hannover-Burgdorf (Local)

Prediction 60.65%1.65fair odd
EV -5.99%
Edge -3.86%
Kelly -10.89%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.37%61.09%60.72%64.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.381.501.511.5572.46%66.67%66.23%64.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Frisch Auf Göppingen (Visit)

Prediction 29.46%3.39fair odd
EV +10.49%
Edge +2.80%
Kelly +3.81%
Growth +0.400%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.89%28.89%29.48%30.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.133.053.7534.48%31.97%32.79%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 9.88%10.12fair odd
EV -1.16%
Edge -0.116%
Kelly -0.129%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 10.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
9.18%10.02%9.80%11.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.009.319.5010.0012.50%10.74%10.53%10.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: TSV Hannover-Burgdorf (Local): 60.65%; Frisch Auf Göppingen (Visit): 29.46%; Draw: 9.88%. For Frisch Auf Göppingen (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.39. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +10.49%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
NordicBet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.59%EV -15.09%E -10.78%K -37.71%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.11%EV +10.49%E +2.80%K +3.81%G +0.400%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.30%EV -20.93%E -2.62%K -2.99%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-27 12:55
Betsson🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 64.91%EV -16.30%E -11.81%K -42.89%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.89%EV +10.49%E +2.80%K +3.81%G +0.400%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.20%EV -20.93%E -2.62%K -2.99%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-27 12:55
Paddy Power🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.64%EV -12.66%E -8.79%K -28.77%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.33%EV -2.77%E -0.840%K -1.21%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.02%EV -11.05%E -1.23%K -1.38%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-27 12:55
Coolbet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.82%EV -5.99%E -3.86%K -10.89%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.46%EV -5.72%E -1.79%K -2.60%G +0.000%9.70I 10.31%NM 9.72%EV -4.13%E -0.426%K -0.475%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-27 08:10
Marathon Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.13%EV -9.02%E -6.01%K -18.04%G +0.000%3.16I 31.65%NM 29.02%EV -6.90%E -2.18%K -3.19%G +0.000%9.30I 10.75%NM 9.86%EV -8.08%E -0.869%K -0.974%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-27 11:50
Winamax (DE)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 60.88%EV -7.81%E -5.14%K -15.01%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.38%EV -7.19%E -2.28%K -3.35%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.74%EV -6.10%E -0.643%K -0.718%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-27 12:49
Codere (IT)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 60.53%EV -7.81%E -5.14%K -15.01%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.68%EV -8.67%E -2.80%K -4.13%G +0.000%9.40I 10.64%NM 9.79%EV -7.09%E -0.755%K -0.844%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-27 12:50
Tipico (DE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.20%EV -9.02%E -6.01%K -18.04%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.62%EV -8.67%E -2.80%K -4.13%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.18%EV -1.16%E -0.116%K -0.129%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-27 10:44
Unibet (UK)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.91%EV -9.02%E -6.01%K -18.04%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.47%EV -8.67%E -2.80%K -4.13%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.62%EV -6.10%E -0.643%K -0.718%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-27 12:49
Virgin Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.44%EV -7.20%E -4.71%K -13.59%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.32%EV -10.14%E -3.32%K -4.95%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.25%EV -1.16%E -0.116%K -0.129%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-27 12:14
Grosvenor🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.44%EV -7.20%E -4.71%K -13.59%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.32%EV -10.14%E -3.32%K -4.95%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.25%EV -1.16%E -0.116%K -0.129%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-27 12:14
Casumo🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.44%EV -7.20%E -4.71%K -13.59%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.32%EV -10.14%E -3.32%K -4.95%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.25%EV -1.16%E -0.116%K -0.129%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-27 12:15
LiveScore Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.44%EV -7.20%E -4.71%K -13.59%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.32%EV -10.14%E -3.32%K -4.95%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.25%EV -1.16%E -0.116%K -0.129%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-27 12:14
Svenska Spel🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.44%EV -7.20%E -4.71%K -13.59%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.32%EV -10.14%E -3.32%K -4.95%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.25%EV -1.16%E -0.116%K -0.129%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-27 12:15
ATG (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.44%EV -7.20%E -4.71%K -13.59%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.32%EV -10.14%E -3.32%K -4.95%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.25%EV -1.16%E -0.116%K -0.129%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-27 12:15
Unibet (NL)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.44%EV -7.20%E -4.71%K -13.59%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.32%EV -10.14%E -3.32%K -4.95%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.25%EV -1.16%E -0.116%K -0.129%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-27 12:15
Unibet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.44%EV -7.20%E -4.71%K -13.59%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.32%EV -10.14%E -3.32%K -4.95%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.25%EV -1.16%E -0.116%K -0.129%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-27 12:15
888sport🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.65%EV -9.02%E -6.01%K -18.04%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.82%EV -11.61%E -3.87%K -5.81%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.53%EV -15.99%E -1.88%K -2.13%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-27 10:40
888sport (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.65%EV -9.02%E -6.01%K -18.04%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.82%EV -11.61%E -3.87%K -5.81%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.53%EV -15.99%E -1.88%K -2.13%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-27 10:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.65%EV -9.02%E -6.01%K -18.04%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.82%EV -11.61%E -3.87%K -5.81%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.53%EV -15.99%E -1.88%K -2.13%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-27 10:40
PMU (FR)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 59.37%EV -10.23%E -6.91%K -21.32%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.30%EV -14.56%E -5.02%K -7.66%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.34%EV -15.99%E -1.88%K -2.13%G +0.000%13.8%2026-09-27 12:15
Winamax (FR)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 59.53%EV -10.84%E -7.37%K -23.06%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.18%EV -14.56%E -5.02%K -7.66%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.30%EV -15.99%E -1.88%K -2.13%G +0.000%14.3%2026-09-27 12:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.46I 68.49%NM 59.51%2.86I 34.97%NM 30.38%8.60I 11.63%NM 10.10%15.1%2026-09-27 12:50

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Pinnacle🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.59%3.09I 32.36%NM 30.41%6.4%2026-09-27 08:25