The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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THW Kiel v VfL Gummersbach

Kickoff: 2026-10-03 16:00 UTC

Final: THW Kiel 29–26 VfL Gummersbach

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

THW Kiel (Local)

Prediction 67.86%1.47fair odd
EV -3.64%
Edge -2.57%
Kelly -8.68%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
66.49%67.95%67.80%69.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.251.341.351.4280.00%74.89%74.07%70.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

VfL Gummersbach (Visit)

Prediction 23.03%4.34fair odd
EV -0.266%
Edge -0.061%
Kelly -0.080%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.11%22.84%23.05%24.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.653.953.904.3327.40%25.29%25.64%23.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 9.11%10.98fair odd
EV +9.33%
Edge +0.777%
Kelly +0.848%
Growth +0.079%

assuming max odds 12.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.71%9.21%9.15%10.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.5010.5410.5012.0011.76%9.49%9.52%8.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: THW Kiel (Local): 67.86%; VfL Gummersbach (Visit): 23.03%; Draw: 9.11%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 10.98. 10 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 12.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +9.33%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Unibet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.56%EV -8.39%E -6.22%K -23.98%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.73%EV -10.17%E -2.61%K -3.51%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.71%EV +9.33%E +0.777%K +0.848%G +0.079%8.0%2026-10-03 07:50
Virgin Bet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.56%EV -8.39%E -6.22%K -23.98%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.73%EV -10.17%E -2.61%K -3.51%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.71%EV +9.33%E +0.777%K +0.848%G +0.079%8.0%2026-10-03 07:50
LiveScore Bet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.56%EV -8.39%E -6.22%K -23.98%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.73%EV -10.17%E -2.61%K -3.51%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.71%EV +9.33%E +0.777%K +0.848%G +0.079%8.0%2026-10-03 07:49
Grosvenor🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.56%EV -8.39%E -6.22%K -23.98%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.73%EV -10.17%E -2.61%K -3.51%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.71%EV +9.33%E +0.777%K +0.848%G +0.079%8.0%2026-10-03 07:50
Unibet (NL)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.56%EV -8.39%E -6.22%K -23.98%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.73%EV -10.17%E -2.61%K -3.51%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.71%EV +9.33%E +0.777%K +0.848%G +0.079%8.0%2026-10-03 07:50
Casumo🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.56%EV -8.39%E -6.22%K -23.98%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.73%EV -10.17%E -2.61%K -3.51%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.71%EV +9.33%E +0.777%K +0.848%G +0.079%8.0%2026-10-03 07:50
ATG (SE)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.56%EV -8.39%E -6.22%K -23.98%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.73%EV -10.17%E -2.61%K -3.51%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.71%EV +9.33%E +0.777%K +0.848%G +0.079%8.0%2026-10-03 07:50
Svenska Spel🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.56%EV -8.39%E -6.22%K -23.98%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.73%EV -10.17%E -2.61%K -3.51%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.71%EV +9.33%E +0.777%K +0.848%G +0.079%8.0%2026-10-03 07:50
Winamax (DE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.32%EV -7.72%E -5.67%K -21.43%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -7.87%E -1.97%K -2.62%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.45%EV +0.218%E +0.020%K +0.022%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-02 11:04
Tipico (DE)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 69.72%EV -10.43%E -7.90%K -32.59%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -3.26%E -0.776%K -1.02%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.37%EV +0.218%E +0.020%K +0.022%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-02 04:20
Coolbet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.49%EV -3.64%E -2.57%K -8.68%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.52%EV -11.32%E -2.94%K -3.97%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.99%EV -4.34%E -0.413%K -0.457%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-03 14:05
Unibet (UK)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.21%EV -8.39%E -6.22%K -23.98%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.02%EV -7.87%E -1.97%K -2.62%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.77%EV -4.34%E -0.413%K -0.457%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-02 09:00
Marathon Bet🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 68.42%EV -9.07%E -6.77%K -26.69%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.64%EV -6.71%E -1.66%K -2.20%G +0.000%10.25I 9.76%NM 8.94%EV -6.61%E -0.645%K -0.715%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-03 04:04
Codere (IT)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 67.72%EV -8.39%E -6.22%K -23.98%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.14%EV -9.02%E -2.28%K -3.06%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.14%EV -8.89%E -0.889%K -0.988%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-02 16:10
Paddy Power🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.24%EV -9.75%E -7.33%K -29.55%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.69%EV -7.87%E -1.97%K -2.62%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.08%EV -8.89%E -0.889%K -0.988%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-02 11:04
PMU (FR)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 66.95%EV -10.43%E -7.90%K -32.59%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.21%EV -15.93%E -4.36%K -6.01%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.84%EV -8.89%E -0.889%K -0.988%G +0.000%13.2%2026-10-03 07:50
Betclic (FR)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 67.01%EV -10.43%E -7.90%K -32.59%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 23.78%EV -14.32%E -3.85%K -5.26%G +0.000%9.60I 10.42%NM 9.21%EV -12.54%E -1.31%K -1.46%G +0.000%13.1%2026-10-03 15:49
Winamax (FR)🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 66.81%EV -11.11%E -8.48%K -35.83%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.98%EV -15.93%E -4.36%K -6.01%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.21%EV -13.45%E -1.42%K -1.58%G +0.000%14.3%2026-10-03 04:10
888sport🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 67.55%EV -9.75%E -7.33%K -29.55%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.46%EV -7.87%E -1.97%K -2.62%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.98%EV -18.00%E -2.00%K -2.25%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-03 07:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 67.55%EV -9.75%E -7.33%K -29.55%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.46%EV -7.87%E -1.97%K -2.62%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.98%EV -18.00%E -2.00%K -2.25%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-03 07:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 67.55%EV -9.75%E -7.33%K -29.55%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.46%EV -7.87%E -1.97%K -2.62%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.98%EV -18.00%E -2.00%K -2.25%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-03 07:54
NordicBet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 69.65%EV -15.18%E -12.14%K -60.72%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.11%EV -0.266%E -0.061%K -0.080%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.24%EV -22.56%E -2.65%K -3.01%G +0.000%14.9%2026-10-03 15:55
Betsson🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 69.65%EV -15.18%E -12.14%K -60.72%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.11%EV -0.266%E -0.061%K -0.080%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.24%EV -22.56%E -2.65%K -3.01%G +0.000%14.9%2026-10-03 15:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.31I 76.34%NM 66.39%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.16%9.20I 10.87%NM 9.45%15.0%2026-10-02 11:05

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Pinnacle🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.58%3.99I 25.06%NM 23.42%7.0%2026-10-02 18:45