The School of Odds
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THW Kiel v TBV Lemgo

Kickoff: 2026-08-27 17:00 UTC

Final: THW Kiel 35–27 TBV Lemgo

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

THW Kiel (Local)

Prediction 70.92%1.41fair odd
EV -7.09%
Edge -5.41%
Kelly -22.87%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.31

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
69.06%71.30%71.08%76.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.221.261.251.3181.97%79.20%80.00%76.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

TBV Lemgo (Visit)

Prediction 20.62%4.85fair odd
EV +19.59%
Edge +3.38%
Kelly +4.08%
Growth +0.800%

assuming max odds 5.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.38%20.31%20.52%22.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.754.705.8025.00%21.04%21.28%17.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 8.46%11.82fair odd
EV +9.95%
Edge +0.765%
Kelly +0.829%
Growth +0.082%

assuming max odds 13.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.14%8.39%8.40%9.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
9.5011.0111.0013.0010.53%9.08%9.09%7.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: THW Kiel (Local): 70.92%; TBV Lemgo (Visit): 20.62%; Draw: 8.46%. For TBV Lemgo (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.85. 10 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +19.59%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.02%EV -11.35%E -9.08%K -45.38%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.38%EV +19.59%E +3.38%K +4.08%G +0.800%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.60%EV +5.72%E +0.457%K +0.497%G +0.028%5.2%2026-08-27 10:35
Unibet (NL)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.12%EV -11.35%E -9.08%K -45.38%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.82%EV +7.22%E +1.39%K +1.72%G +0.124%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.06%EV -2.74%E -0.238%K -0.261%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-27 10:05
ATG (SE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.12%EV -11.35%E -9.08%K -45.38%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.82%EV +7.22%E +1.39%K +1.72%G +0.124%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.06%EV -2.74%E -0.238%K -0.261%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-27 10:01
Svenska Spel🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.12%EV -11.35%E -9.08%K -45.38%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.82%EV +7.22%E +1.39%K +1.72%G +0.124%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.06%EV -2.74%E -0.238%K -0.261%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-27 10:05
Unibet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.12%EV -11.35%E -9.08%K -45.38%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.82%EV +7.22%E +1.39%K +1.72%G +0.124%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.06%EV -2.74%E -0.238%K -0.261%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-27 10:01
Casumo🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.12%EV -11.35%E -9.08%K -45.38%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.82%EV +7.22%E +1.39%K +1.72%G +0.124%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.06%EV -2.74%E -0.238%K -0.261%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-27 10:01
LiveScore Bet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.12%EV -11.35%E -9.08%K -45.38%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.82%EV +7.22%E +1.39%K +1.72%G +0.124%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.06%EV -2.74%E -0.238%K -0.261%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-27 10:01
Virgin Bet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.12%EV -11.35%E -9.08%K -45.38%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.82%EV +7.22%E +1.39%K +1.72%G +0.124%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.06%EV -2.74%E -0.238%K -0.261%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-27 10:05
Grosvenor🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.12%EV -11.35%E -9.08%K -45.38%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.82%EV +7.22%E +1.39%K +1.72%G +0.124%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.06%EV -2.74%E -0.238%K -0.261%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-27 10:05
Winamax (DE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.29%EV -11.35%E -9.08%K -45.38%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV +3.10%E +0.619%K +0.774%G +0.024%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.14%EV +9.95%E +0.765%K +0.829%G +0.082%7.7%2026-08-27 16:55
Tipico (DE)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 71.72%EV -9.22%E -7.20%K -32.92%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.53%EV -3.09%E -0.657%K -0.835%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.74%EV -11.20%E -1.07%K -1.18%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-27 16:50
PMU (FR)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 72.05%EV -13.47%E -11.04%K -61.24%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.70%EV -3.09%E -0.657%K -0.835%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.25%EV -19.65%E -2.07%K -2.31%G +0.000%13.8%2026-08-27 10:05
Marathon Bet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 71.09%EV -8.51%E -6.60%K -29.34%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -7.21%E -1.60%K -2.06%G +0.000%10.75I 9.30%NM 8.53%EV -9.08%E -0.845%K -0.932%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-27 15:25
Paddy Power🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 70.64%EV -8.51%E -6.60%K -29.34%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.25%EV -7.21%E -1.60%K -2.06%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.11%EV -15.43%E -1.54%K -1.71%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-27 16:55
Unibet (UK)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.74%EV -7.80%E -6.00%K -26.00%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.90%EV -9.27%E -2.11%K -2.73%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.36%EV -6.97%E -0.633%K -0.697%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-27 16:55
Winamax (FR)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 72.04%EV -13.47%E -11.04%K -61.24%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 19.97%EV -9.27%E -2.11%K -2.73%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 7.99%EV -6.97%E -0.633%K -0.697%G +0.000%13.8%2026-08-27 16:50
888sport🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 70.74%EV -11.35%E -9.08%K -45.38%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.42%EV -10.72%E -2.48%K -3.22%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.84%EV -15.43%E -1.54%K -1.71%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-27 16:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 70.74%EV -11.35%E -9.08%K -45.38%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.42%EV -10.72%E -2.48%K -3.22%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.84%EV -15.43%E -1.54%K -1.71%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-27 16:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 70.74%EV -11.35%E -9.08%K -45.38%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.42%EV -10.72%E -2.48%K -3.22%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.84%EV -15.43%E -1.54%K -1.71%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-27 16:55
Codere (IT)🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 70.24%EV -7.09%E -5.41%K -22.87%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.40%EV -11.34%E -2.64%K -3.44%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.36%EV -6.97%E -0.633%K -0.697%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-27 16:55
NordicBet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.04%EV -7.80%E -6.00%K -26.00%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.68%EV -13.40%E -3.19%K -4.19%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.28%EV -6.97%E -0.633%K -0.697%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-27 16:55
Betsson🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.04%EV -7.80%E -6.00%K -26.00%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.68%EV -13.40%E -3.19%K -4.19%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.28%EV -6.97%E -0.633%K -0.697%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-27 16:55
Betclic (FR)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 69.06%EV -9.22%E -7.20%K -32.92%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.10%EV -17.52%E -4.38%K -5.84%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.84%EV -15.43%E -1.54%K -1.71%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-27 16:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.27I 78.74%NM 68.39%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.56%9.60I 10.42%NM 9.05%15.1%2026-08-27 16:55

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Pinnacle🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 80.44%4.77I 20.96%NM 19.56%7.2%2026-08-27 16:35