The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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THW Kiel v SG Flensburg-Handewitt

Kickoff: 2026-09-26 16:02 UTC

Final: THW Kiel 31–31 SG Flensburg-Handewitt

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

THW Kiel (Local)

Prediction 53.27%1.88fair odd
EV -1.46%
Edge -0.789%
Kelly -1.72%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.92%53.25%53.24%55.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.621.711.721.8561.73%58.61%58.14%54.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

SG Flensburg-Handewitt (Visit)

Prediction 35.52%2.82fair odd
EV -2.33%
Edge -0.848%
Kelly -1.33%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.17%35.57%35.35%38.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.572.602.7542.55%38.90%38.46%36.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 11.22%8.91fair odd
EV +12.19%
Edge +1.22%
Kelly +1.35%
Growth +0.165%

assuming max odds 10.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
9.25%11.18%11.40%12.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.008.198.5010.0014.29%12.20%11.76%10.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: THW Kiel (Local): 53.27%; SG Flensburg-Handewitt (Visit): 35.52%; Draw: 11.22%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.91. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 10.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +12.19%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Winamax (DE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.76%EV -8.38%E -4.87%K -11.64%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.99%EV -11.21%E -4.48%K -7.47%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.25%EV +12.19%E +1.22%K +1.35%G +0.165%8.1%2026-09-26 15:55
Coolbet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.92%EV -1.46%E -0.789%K -1.72%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 38.61%EV -13.34%E -5.47%K -9.27%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.47%EV +0.971%E +0.108%K +0.121%G +0.001%6.1%2026-09-26 11:35
Winamax (FR)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 53.19%EV -12.64%E -7.71%K -19.76%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.12%EV -16.54%E -7.04%K -12.25%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.69%EV +0.971%E +0.108%K +0.121%G +0.001%14.6%2026-09-26 15:55
Marathon Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.41%EV -6.79%E -3.88%K -9.05%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 37.28%EV -12.63%E -5.13%K -8.65%G +0.000%8.90I 11.24%NM 10.31%EV -0.151%E -0.017%K -0.019%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-26 15:20
Virgin Bet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.65%EV -8.38%E -4.87%K -11.64%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.49%EV -7.66%E -2.95%K -4.79%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.86%EV -4.64%E -0.546%K -0.618%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-26 15:29
Grosvenor🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.65%EV -8.38%E -4.87%K -11.64%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.49%EV -7.66%E -2.95%K -4.79%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.86%EV -4.64%E -0.546%K -0.618%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-26 15:30
Casumo🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.65%EV -8.38%E -4.87%K -11.64%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.49%EV -7.66%E -2.95%K -4.79%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.86%EV -4.64%E -0.546%K -0.618%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-26 15:29
LiveScore Bet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.65%EV -8.38%E -4.87%K -11.64%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.49%EV -7.66%E -2.95%K -4.79%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.86%EV -4.64%E -0.546%K -0.618%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-26 15:30
Svenska Spel🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.65%EV -8.38%E -4.87%K -11.64%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.49%EV -7.66%E -2.95%K -4.79%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.86%EV -4.64%E -0.546%K -0.618%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-26 15:29
ATG (SE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.65%EV -8.38%E -4.87%K -11.64%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.49%EV -7.66%E -2.95%K -4.79%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.86%EV -4.64%E -0.546%K -0.618%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-26 15:29
Unibet (NL)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.65%EV -8.38%E -4.87%K -11.64%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.49%EV -7.66%E -2.95%K -4.79%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.86%EV -4.64%E -0.546%K -0.618%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-26 15:29
Unibet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.65%EV -8.38%E -4.87%K -11.64%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.49%EV -7.66%E -2.95%K -4.79%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.86%EV -4.64%E -0.546%K -0.618%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-26 15:30
Tipico (DE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.74%EV -12.11%E -7.34%K -18.63%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.44%EV -2.33%E -0.848%K -1.33%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.82%EV -4.64%E -0.546%K -0.618%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-26 15:14
Unibet (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.85%EV -7.85%E -4.54%K -10.75%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.50%EV -4.11%E -1.52%K -2.42%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.65%EV -10.25%E -1.28%K -1.46%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-26 15:55
Codere (IT)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.63%EV -8.92%E -5.21%K -12.56%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.61%EV -5.88%E -2.22%K -3.57%G +0.000%7.80I 12.82%NM 11.76%EV -12.49%E -1.60%K -1.84%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-26 15:55
Betclic (FR)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 53.24%EV -11.58%E -6.98%K -17.54%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.35%EV -11.21%E -4.48%K -7.47%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.40%EV -13.05%E -1.68%K -1.93%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-26 15:49
Paddy Power🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.31%EV -11.05%E -6.61%K -16.49%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.59%EV -4.11%E -1.52%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.09%EV -15.86%E -2.11%K -2.44%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-26 15:55
888sport🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.01%EV -7.85%E -4.54%K -10.75%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.99%EV -11.21%E -4.48%K -7.47%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.00%EV -15.86%E -2.11%K -2.44%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-26 15:35
888sport (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.01%EV -7.85%E -4.54%K -10.75%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.99%EV -11.21%E -4.48%K -7.47%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.00%EV -15.86%E -2.11%K -2.44%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-26 15:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.01%EV -7.85%E -4.54%K -10.75%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.99%EV -11.21%E -4.48%K -7.47%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.00%EV -15.86%E -2.11%K -2.44%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-26 15:35
PMU (FR)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 52.89%EV -11.58%E -6.98%K -17.54%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 35.40%EV -11.92%E -4.81%K -8.06%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.71%EV -15.86%E -2.11%K -2.44%G +0.000%13.9%2026-09-26 15:30
NordicBet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 54.11%EV -13.18%E -8.08%K -20.92%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.29%EV -5.88%E -2.22%K -3.57%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.60%EV -21.47%E -3.07%K -3.58%G +0.000%13.4%2026-09-26 15:55
Betsson🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 54.27%EV -13.71%E -8.46%K -22.11%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.17%EV -5.88%E -2.22%K -3.57%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.56%EV -21.47%E -3.07%K -3.58%G +0.000%13.7%2026-09-26 15:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.64I 60.98%NM 52.75%2.48I 40.32%NM 34.89%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.36%15.6%2026-09-26 15:55

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Pinnacle🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.10%2.26I 44.25%NM 41.90%5.6%2026-09-26 15:30