The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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THW Kiel v Rhein-Neckar Löwen

Kickoff: 2026-10-15 17:00 UTC

Final: THW Kiel 37–36 Rhein-Neckar Löwen

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

THW Kiel (Local)

Prediction 75.65%1.32fair odd
EV -5.44%
Edge -4.35%
Kelly -21.74%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
72.99%75.34%75.73%76.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.171.221.221.2585.47%81.85%81.97%80.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Rhein-Neckar Löwen (Visit)

Prediction 16.49%6.06fair odd
EV -1.06%
Edge -0.177%
Kelly -0.212%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 6.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.41%16.59%16.41%18.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.905.405.506.0020.41%18.53%18.18%16.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 7.86%12.72fair odd
EV +2.16%
Edge +0.167%
Kelly +0.180%
Growth +0.004%

assuming max odds 13.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.23%8.07%7.86%9.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
9.8010.7510.0013.0010.20%9.30%10.00%7.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: THW Kiel (Local): 75.65%; Rhein-Neckar Löwen (Visit): 16.49%; Draw: 7.86%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 12.72. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 13.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.16%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Unibet (UK)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 76.42%EV -6.95%E -5.65%K -30.21%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.35%EV -5.18%E -0.901%K -1.09%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.23%EV +2.16%E +0.167%K +0.180%G +0.004%6.4%2026-10-15 16:54
Winamax (DE)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.24%EV -7.71%E -6.32%K -35.02%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.32%EV -6.01%E -1.05%K -1.28%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.44%EV -1.76%E -0.141%K -0.153%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-15 16:55
Coolbet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.11%EV -7.71%E -6.32%K -35.02%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.15%EV -5.18%E -0.901%K -1.09%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.74%EV -5.69%E -0.475%K -0.518%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-15 16:49
Tipico (DE)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.52%EV -9.22%E -7.68%K -46.09%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.83%EV -4.36%E -0.752%K -0.908%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.65%EV -5.69%E -0.475%K -0.518%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-15 16:50
Codere (IT)🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 75.48%EV -8.46%E -6.99%K -40.29%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.91%EV -10.95%E -2.03%K -2.49%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.61%EV -5.69%E -0.475%K -0.518%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-15 16:55
Paddy Power🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 76.32%EV -11.49%E -9.82%K -67.58%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.24%EV -9.31%E -1.69%K -2.07%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.44%EV -5.69%E -0.475%K -0.518%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-15 16:54
Betclic (FR)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 73.99%EV -9.22%E -7.68%K -46.09%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.12%EV -19.20%E -3.92%K -4.92%G +0.000%11.25I 8.89%NM 7.89%EV -11.59%E -1.03%K -1.13%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-15 16:49
Coral🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 75.34%EV -9.22%E -7.68%K -46.09%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.44%EV -9.31%E -1.69%K -2.07%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.22%EV -13.55%E -1.23%K -1.36%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-15 16:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 75.34%EV -9.22%E -7.68%K -46.09%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.44%EV -9.31%E -1.69%K -2.07%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.22%EV -13.55%E -1.23%K -1.36%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-15 16:44
Winamax (FR)🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 74.28%EV -9.97%E -8.38%K -52.50%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.68%EV -17.55%E -3.51%K -4.39%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.04%EV -13.55%E -1.23%K -1.36%G +0.000%13.1%2026-10-15 16:54
Unibet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 72.99%EV -5.44%E -4.35%K -21.74%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.89%EV -15.90%E -3.12%K -3.88%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.12%EV -21.41%E -2.14%K -2.38%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-15 15:10
Grosvenor🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 72.99%EV -5.44%E -4.35%K -21.74%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.89%EV -15.90%E -3.12%K -3.88%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.12%EV -21.41%E -2.14%K -2.38%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-15 15:10
Casumo🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 72.99%EV -5.44%E -4.35%K -21.74%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.89%EV -15.90%E -3.12%K -3.88%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.12%EV -21.41%E -2.14%K -2.38%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-15 15:10
ATG (SE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 72.99%EV -5.44%E -4.35%K -21.74%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.89%EV -15.90%E -3.12%K -3.88%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.12%EV -21.41%E -2.14%K -2.38%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-15 15:10
Unibet (NL)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 72.99%EV -5.44%E -4.35%K -21.74%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.89%EV -15.90%E -3.12%K -3.88%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.12%EV -21.41%E -2.14%K -2.38%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-15 15:10
Virgin Bet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 72.99%EV -5.44%E -4.35%K -21.74%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.89%EV -15.90%E -3.12%K -3.88%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.12%EV -21.41%E -2.14%K -2.38%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-15 15:10
LiveScore Bet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 72.99%EV -5.44%E -4.35%K -21.74%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.89%EV -15.90%E -3.12%K -3.88%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.12%EV -21.41%E -2.14%K -2.38%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-15 15:10
Svenska Spel🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 72.99%EV -5.44%E -4.35%K -21.74%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.89%EV -15.90%E -3.12%K -3.88%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.12%EV -21.41%E -2.14%K -2.38%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-15 15:10
888sport🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 74.73%EV -9.22%E -7.68%K -46.09%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.30%EV -9.31%E -1.69%K -2.07%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.97%EV -21.41%E -2.14%K -2.38%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-15 15:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 74.73%EV -9.22%E -7.68%K -46.09%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.30%EV -9.31%E -1.69%K -2.07%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.97%EV -21.41%E -2.14%K -2.38%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-15 15:00
888sport (SE)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 74.73%EV -9.22%E -7.68%K -46.09%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.30%EV -9.31%E -1.69%K -2.07%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.97%EV -21.41%E -2.14%K -2.38%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-15 15:00
Betsson🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 75.16%EV -6.95%E -5.65%K -30.21%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.41%EV -1.06%E -0.177%K -0.212%G +0.000%9.80I 10.20%NM 9.43%EV -22.98%E -2.35%K -2.61%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-15 16:54
NordicBet🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 75.16%EV -6.95%E -5.65%K -30.21%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.41%EV -1.06%E -0.177%K -0.212%G +0.000%9.80I 10.20%NM 9.43%EV -22.98%E -2.35%K -2.61%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-15 16:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.18I 84.75%NM 73.63%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.10%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.27%15.1%2026-10-15 16:55

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Pinnacle🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.83%4.63I 21.60%NM 20.17%7.1%2026-10-15 16:40