The School of Odds
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THW Kiel v HSV Hamburg

Kickoff: 2026-10-11 13:00 UTC

Final: THW Kiel 26–19 HSV Hamburg

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

THW Kiel (Local)

Prediction 75.32%1.33fair odd
EV -5.85%
Edge -4.68%
Kelly -23.40%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
74.02%75.32%75.40%76.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.171.211.221.2585.47%82.53%81.97%80.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

HSV Hamburg (Visit)

Prediction 17.10%5.85fair odd
EV -0.814%
Edge -0.140%
Kelly -0.169%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.83%17.10%17.02%17.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.905.385.505.8020.41%18.57%18.18%17.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 7.58%13.20fair odd
EV -1.48%
Edge -0.114%
Kelly -0.123%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 13.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.04%7.58%7.58%8.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
11.0012.2713.0013.009.09%8.15%7.69%7.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: THW Kiel (Local): 75.32%; HSV Hamburg (Visit): 17.10%; Draw: 7.58%. For HSV Hamburg (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.85. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 5.80, with an expected value of -0.814%; they did not produce positive expected value.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.34%EV -5.85%E -4.68%K -23.40%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.12%EV -5.94%E -1.08%K -1.32%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.53%EV -5.27%E -0.421%K -0.458%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-11 05:25
Betsson🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.24%EV -8.11%E -6.65%K -36.86%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.61%EV -4.23%E -0.756%K -0.920%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.15%EV -1.48%E -0.114%K -0.123%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-11 12:52
Winamax (DE)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.24%EV -8.11%E -6.65%K -36.86%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.61%EV -4.23%E -0.756%K -0.920%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.15%EV -1.48%E -0.114%K -0.123%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-11 12:55
NordicBet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.24%EV -8.11%E -6.65%K -36.86%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.61%EV -4.23%E -0.756%K -0.920%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.15%EV -1.48%E -0.114%K -0.123%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-11 12:55
Unibet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.01%EV -8.11%E -6.65%K -36.86%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.86%EV -5.94%E -1.08%K -1.32%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.13%EV -1.48%E -0.114%K -0.123%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-11 08:30
LiveScore Bet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.01%EV -8.11%E -6.65%K -36.86%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.86%EV -5.94%E -1.08%K -1.32%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.13%EV -1.48%E -0.114%K -0.123%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-11 08:30
Virgin Bet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.01%EV -8.11%E -6.65%K -36.86%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.86%EV -5.94%E -1.08%K -1.32%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.13%EV -1.48%E -0.114%K -0.123%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-11 08:30
Casumo🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.01%EV -8.11%E -6.65%K -36.86%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.86%EV -5.94%E -1.08%K -1.32%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.13%EV -1.48%E -0.114%K -0.123%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-11 08:30
Grosvenor🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.01%EV -8.11%E -6.65%K -36.86%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.86%EV -5.94%E -1.08%K -1.32%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.13%EV -1.48%E -0.114%K -0.123%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-11 08:30
Unibet (NL)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.01%EV -8.11%E -6.65%K -36.86%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.86%EV -5.94%E -1.08%K -1.32%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.13%EV -1.48%E -0.114%K -0.123%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-11 08:30
Svenska Spel🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.01%EV -8.11%E -6.65%K -36.86%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.86%EV -5.94%E -1.08%K -1.32%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.13%EV -1.48%E -0.114%K -0.123%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-11 08:30
ATG (SE)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.01%EV -8.11%E -6.65%K -36.86%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.86%EV -5.94%E -1.08%K -1.32%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.13%EV -1.48%E -0.114%K -0.123%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-11 08:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 74.44%EV -8.11%E -6.65%K -36.86%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.30%EV -10.22%E -1.95%K -2.40%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.26%EV -16.64%E -1.51%K -1.66%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-11 12:49
Coral🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 74.44%EV -8.11%E -6.65%K -36.86%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.30%EV -10.22%E -1.95%K -2.40%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.26%EV -16.64%E -1.51%K -1.66%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-11 12:49
Codere (IT)🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 75.48%EV -8.86%E -7.32%K -42.20%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.91%EV -7.65%E -1.42%K -1.74%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.61%EV -9.06%E -0.755%K -0.823%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-11 06:45
Tipico (DE)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.52%EV -9.62%E -8.01%K -48.08%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.83%EV -0.814%E -0.140%K -0.169%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.65%EV -9.06%E -0.755%K -0.823%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-11 07:34
Unibet (UK)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.31%EV -9.62%E -8.01%K -48.08%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.65%EV -5.94%E -1.08%K -1.32%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.04%EV -1.48%E -0.114%K -0.123%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-11 11:04
888sport🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 74.12%EV -9.62%E -8.01%K -48.08%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.79%EV -14.49%E -2.90%K -3.62%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.09%EV -16.64%E -1.51%K -1.66%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-11 12:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 74.12%EV -9.62%E -8.01%K -48.08%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.79%EV -14.49%E -2.90%K -3.62%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.09%EV -16.64%E -1.51%K -1.66%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-11 12:49
888sport (SE)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 74.12%EV -9.62%E -8.01%K -48.08%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.79%EV -14.49%E -2.90%K -3.62%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.09%EV -16.64%E -1.51%K -1.66%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-11 12:50
Betclic (FR)🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 74.53%EV -10.37%E -8.71%K -54.57%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 17.92%EV -15.35%E -3.10%K -3.89%G +0.000%11.75I 8.51%NM 7.55%EV -10.95%E -0.932%K -1.02%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-11 12:55
Winamax (FR)🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 74.02%EV -10.37%E -8.71%K -54.57%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 17.98%EV -16.20%E -3.31%K -4.16%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.01%EV -16.64%E -1.51%K -1.66%G +0.000%13.5%2026-10-11 12:55
Paddy Power🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 76.32%EV -11.88%E -10.15%K -69.85%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.24%EV -5.94%E -1.08%K -1.32%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.44%EV -9.06%E -0.755%K -0.823%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-11 06:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.18I 84.75%NM 73.34%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.41%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.24%15.5%2026-10-11 12:55

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Pinnacle🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 82.62%5.37I 18.62%NM 17.38%7.1%2026-10-11 10:15