The School of Odds
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ThSV Eisenach v VfL Gummersbach

Kickoff: 2026-10-16 18:00 UTC

Final: ThSV Eisenach 28–28 VfL Gummersbach

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

ThSV Eisenach (Local)

Prediction 24.52%4.08fair odd
EV -1.91%
Edge -0.478%
Kelly -0.637%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.19%24.51%24.57%25.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.453.783.804.0028.99%26.48%26.32%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

VfL Gummersbach (Visit)

Prediction 66.36%1.51fair odd
EV -7.09%
Edge -5.07%
Kelly -17.74%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.21%66.32%66.27%67.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.331.371.381.4075.19%72.92%72.46%71.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 9.12%10.97fair odd
EV +0.283%
Edge +0.026%
Kelly +0.028%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 11.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.44%9.18%9.16%11.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.009.9010.5011.0012.50%10.11%9.52%9.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: ThSV Eisenach (Local): 24.52%; VfL Gummersbach (Visit): 66.36%; Draw: 9.12%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 10.97. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 11.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.283%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Betsson🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.76%EV -8.04%E -2.14%K -2.92%G +0.000%1.39I 71.94%NM 66.80%EV -7.76%E -5.58%K -19.89%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.44%EV +0.283%E +0.026%K +0.028%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-16 17:50
NordicBet🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.76%EV -8.04%E -2.14%K -2.92%G +0.000%1.39I 71.94%NM 66.80%EV -7.76%E -5.58%K -19.89%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.44%EV +0.283%E +0.026%K +0.028%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-16 17:50
Unibet (UK)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -6.82%E -1.79%K -2.43%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.59%EV -7.09%E -5.07%K -17.74%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.88%EV -4.27%E -0.407%K -0.450%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-16 17:50
Winamax (DE)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.42%EV -6.82%E -1.79%K -2.43%G +0.000%1.39I 71.94%NM 66.75%EV -7.76%E -5.58%K -19.89%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.84%EV -4.27%E -0.407%K -0.450%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-16 17:50
Unibet🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.30%EV -6.82%E -1.79%K -2.43%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 66.91%EV -8.42%E -6.10%K -22.16%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.79%EV -4.27%E -0.407%K -0.450%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-16 09:00
Grosvenor🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.30%EV -6.82%E -1.79%K -2.43%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 66.91%EV -8.42%E -6.10%K -22.16%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.79%EV -4.27%E -0.407%K -0.450%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-16 08:55
Casumo🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.30%EV -6.82%E -1.79%K -2.43%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 66.91%EV -8.42%E -6.10%K -22.16%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.79%EV -4.27%E -0.407%K -0.450%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-16 09:00
ATG (SE)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.30%EV -6.82%E -1.79%K -2.43%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 66.91%EV -8.42%E -6.10%K -22.16%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.79%EV -4.27%E -0.407%K -0.450%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-16 09:00
Virgin Bet🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.30%EV -6.82%E -1.79%K -2.43%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 66.91%EV -8.42%E -6.10%K -22.16%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.79%EV -4.27%E -0.407%K -0.450%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-16 09:00
LiveScore Bet🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.30%EV -6.82%E -1.79%K -2.43%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 66.91%EV -8.42%E -6.10%K -22.16%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.79%EV -4.27%E -0.407%K -0.450%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-16 09:00
Svenska Spel🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.30%EV -6.82%E -1.79%K -2.43%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 66.91%EV -8.42%E -6.10%K -22.16%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.79%EV -4.27%E -0.407%K -0.450%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-16 08:55
Tipico (DE)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV -6.82%E -1.79%K -2.43%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 67.07%EV -9.09%E -6.63%K -24.55%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.75%EV -4.27%E -0.407%K -0.450%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-16 13:40
Codere (IT)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.68%EV -9.27%E -2.50%K -3.43%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 66.18%EV -8.42%E -6.10%K -22.16%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.13%EV -8.83%E -0.883%K -0.981%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-16 17:55
Paddy Power🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.20%EV -8.04%E -2.14%K -2.92%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 66.73%EV -9.75%E -7.17%K -27.08%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.07%EV -8.83%E -0.883%K -0.981%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-16 17:50
Betclic (FR)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.27%EV -14.17%E -4.05%K -5.67%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 65.52%EV -10.41%E -7.71%K -29.75%G +0.000%9.60I 10.42%NM 9.21%EV -12.48%E -1.30%K -1.45%G +0.000%13.1%2026-10-16 17:53
Coolbet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.15%EV -1.91%E -0.478%K -0.637%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 67.10%EV -8.42%E -6.10%K -22.16%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.75%EV -13.39%E -1.41%K -1.58%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-16 17:49
Winamax (FR)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 25.52%EV -15.40%E -4.46%K -6.29%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 65.21%EV -10.41%E -7.71%K -29.75%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.27%EV -13.39%E -1.41%K -1.58%G +0.000%13.6%2026-10-16 17:50
Unibet (NL)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.44%EV -9.27%E -2.50%K -3.43%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 65.52%EV -8.42%E -6.10%K -22.16%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.05%EV -17.95%E -1.99%K -2.24%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-16 10:45
888sport🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 23.96%EV -8.04%E -2.14%K -2.92%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 66.06%EV -9.75%E -7.17%K -27.08%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.98%EV -17.95%E -1.99%K -2.24%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-16 17:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 23.96%EV -8.04%E -2.14%K -2.92%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 66.06%EV -9.75%E -7.17%K -27.08%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.98%EV -17.95%E -1.99%K -2.24%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-16 17:55
888sport (SE)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 23.96%EV -8.04%E -2.14%K -2.92%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 66.06%EV -9.75%E -7.17%K -27.08%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.98%EV -17.95%E -1.99%K -2.24%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-16 17:55
Coral🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.19%EV -1.91%E -0.478%K -0.637%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 66.72%EV -11.74%E -8.83%K -35.57%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.09%EV -27.07%E -3.38%K -3.87%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-16 17:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.19%EV -1.91%E -0.478%K -0.637%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 66.72%EV -11.74%E -8.83%K -35.57%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.09%EV -27.07%E -3.38%K -3.87%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-16 17:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎3.40I 29.41%NM 25.47%1.33I 75.19%NM 65.12%9.20I 10.87%NM 9.41%15.5%2026-10-16 17:50

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Pinnacle🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.50%1.28I 78.13%NM 73.50%6.3%2026-10-16 12:50