The School of Odds
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ThSV Eisenach v TVB Stuttgart

Kickoff: 2026-10-01 17:00 UTC

Final: ThSV Eisenach 28–33 TVB Stuttgart

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

ThSV Eisenach (Local)

Prediction 41.26%2.42fair odd
EV -5.10%
Edge -2.22%
Kelly -3.92%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.35%42.06%41.04%47.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.902.102.052.3052.63%47.55%48.78%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

TVB Stuttgart (Visit)

Prediction 47.45%2.11fair odd
EV +2.02%
Edge +0.942%
Kelly +1.76%
Growth +0.036%

assuming max odds 2.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.94%46.67%47.46%48.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.842.011.962.1554.35%49.79%51.02%46.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 11.28%8.86fair odd
EV -0.694%
Edge -0.079%
Kelly -0.089%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 8.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.43%11.26%11.49%12.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.508.148.508.8013.33%12.29%11.76%11.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: ThSV Eisenach (Local): 41.26%; TVB Stuttgart (Visit): 47.45%; Draw: 11.28%. For TVB Stuttgart (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.11. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.15, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.02%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Betsson🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 47.46%EV -21.60%E -11.37%K -24.00%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.94%EV +2.02%E +0.942%K +1.76%G +0.036%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.61%EV -4.08%E -0.480%K -0.544%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-30 13:30
NordicBet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 47.46%EV -21.60%E -11.37%K -24.00%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.94%EV +2.02%E +0.942%K +1.76%G +0.036%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.61%EV -4.08%E -0.480%K -0.544%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-30 13:30
Unibet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.10%EV -15.41%E -7.52%K -14.68%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.02%EV -0.348%E -0.166%K -0.316%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.88%EV -4.08%E -0.480%K -0.544%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-01 08:30
Virgin Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.10%EV -15.41%E -7.52%K -14.68%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.02%EV -0.348%E -0.166%K -0.316%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.88%EV -4.08%E -0.480%K -0.544%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-01 08:30
Unibet (NL)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.10%EV -15.41%E -7.52%K -14.68%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.02%EV -0.348%E -0.166%K -0.316%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.88%EV -4.08%E -0.480%K -0.544%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-01 08:30
ATG (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.10%EV -15.41%E -7.52%K -14.68%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.02%EV -0.348%E -0.166%K -0.316%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.88%EV -4.08%E -0.480%K -0.544%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-01 08:30
LiveScore Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.10%EV -15.41%E -7.52%K -14.68%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.02%EV -0.348%E -0.166%K -0.316%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.88%EV -4.08%E -0.480%K -0.544%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-30 11:04
Grosvenor🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.10%EV -15.41%E -7.52%K -14.68%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.02%EV -0.348%E -0.166%K -0.316%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.88%EV -4.08%E -0.480%K -0.544%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-01 08:30
Casumo🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.10%EV -15.41%E -7.52%K -14.68%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.02%EV -0.348%E -0.166%K -0.316%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.88%EV -4.08%E -0.480%K -0.544%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-01 08:30
Svenska Spel🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.10%EV -15.41%E -7.52%K -14.68%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.02%EV -0.348%E -0.166%K -0.316%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.88%EV -4.08%E -0.480%K -0.544%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-01 08:30
PMU (FR)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 44.81%EV -19.13%E -9.76%K -19.92%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 43.48%EV -4.14%E -2.05%K -4.06%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.71%EV -15.36%E -2.05%K -2.36%G +0.000%13.9%2026-10-01 08:30
Winamax (FR)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 44.29%EV -18.30%E -9.24%K -18.68%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 44.74%EV -6.99%E -3.57%K -7.28%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 10.96%EV -9.72%E -1.22%K -1.39%G +0.000%14.0%2026-10-01 11:55
Winamax (DE)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 44.29%EV -18.30%E -9.24%K -18.68%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 44.74%EV -6.99%E -3.57%K -7.28%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 10.96%EV -9.72%E -1.22%K -1.39%G +0.000%14.0%2026-10-01 11:55
Coolbet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.38%EV -5.10%E -2.22%K -3.92%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.63%EV -7.47%E -3.83%K -7.86%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.98%EV -12.54%E -1.62%K -1.86%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-01 16:50
Unibet (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.07%EV -7.16%E -3.18%K -5.73%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.38%EV -7.47%E -3.83%K -7.86%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.55%EV -9.72%E -1.22%K -1.39%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-01 16:50
Marathon Bet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 42.28%EV -10.46%E -4.82%K -8.94%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 47.29%EV -7.94%E -4.09%K -8.45%G +0.000%8.80I 11.36%NM 10.43%EV -0.694%E -0.079%K -0.089%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-01 16:37
Codere (IT)🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 40.97%EV -7.57%E -3.38%K -6.11%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 47.55%EV -8.42%E -4.36%K -9.05%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.47%EV -9.72%E -1.22%K -1.39%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-01 16:55
Paddy Power🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.35%EV -7.16%E -3.18%K -5.73%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.54%EV -9.36%E -4.90%K -10.29%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.11%EV -15.36%E -2.05%K -2.36%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-01 16:50
888sport🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.90%EV -9.22%E -4.19%K -7.69%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.11%EV -9.36%E -4.90%K -10.29%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.00%EV -15.36%E -2.05%K -2.36%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-01 16:45
888sport (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.90%EV -9.22%E -4.19%K -7.69%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.11%EV -9.36%E -4.90%K -10.29%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.00%EV -15.36%E -2.05%K -2.36%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-01 16:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.90%EV -9.22%E -4.19%K -7.69%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.11%EV -9.36%E -4.90%K -10.29%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.00%EV -15.36%E -2.05%K -2.36%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-01 16:45
Tipico (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.83%EV -7.16%E -3.18%K -5.73%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.36%EV -9.84%E -5.18%K -10.93%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.81%EV -4.08%E -0.480%K -0.544%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-01 16:54
Betclic (FR)🎯2.19I 45.66%NM 40.38%EV -9.64%E -4.40%K -8.10%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 48.06%EV -12.69%E -6.89%K -15.10%G +0.000%7.65I 13.07%NM 11.56%EV -13.67%E -1.79%K -2.06%G +0.000%13.1%2026-10-01 16:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎2.12I 47.17%NM 40.87%1.84I 54.35%NM 47.09%7.20I 13.89%NM 12.03%15.4%2026-10-01 16:50

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Pinnacle🎯2.09I 47.85%NM 45.43%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.57%5.3%2026-10-01 16:45