The School of Odds
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ThSV Eisenach v HBW Balingen-Weilstetten

Kickoff: 2026-09-03 18:00 UTC

Final: ThSV Eisenach 27–36 HBW Balingen-Weilstetten

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

ThSV Eisenach (Local)

Prediction 60.04%1.67fair odd
EV -2.13%
Edge -1.31%
Kelly -3.38%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.63

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.91%60.45%59.94%64.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.451.551.531.6368.97%64.64%65.36%61.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

HBW Balingen-Weilstetten (Visit)

Prediction 30.08%3.32fair odd
EV +8.29%
Edge +2.30%
Kelly +3.19%
Growth +0.264%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.25%29.44%30.19%33.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.953.003.6038.46%33.89%33.33%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 9.88%10.13fair odd
EV -1.24%
Edge -0.124%
Kelly -0.138%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 10.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
9.18%10.10%9.87%11.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.509.049.5010.0013.33%11.07%10.53%10.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: ThSV Eisenach (Local): 60.04%; HBW Balingen-Weilstetten (Visit): 30.08%; Draw: 9.88%. For HBW Balingen-Weilstetten (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.32. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.29%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.29%EV -11.73%E -7.98%K -24.97%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.25%EV +8.29%E +2.30%K +3.19%G +0.264%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.45%EV -1.24%E -0.124%K -0.138%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-03 15:50
Betsson🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 61.25%EV -12.94%E -8.92%K -28.75%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.91%EV -0.737%E -0.223%K -0.320%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.84%EV -25.93%E -3.46%K -3.99%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-03 17:55
NordicBet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 60.99%EV -12.94%E -8.92%K -28.75%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.21%EV -2.24%E -0.689%K -0.996%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.79%EV -25.93%E -3.46%K -3.99%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-03 17:55
Winamax (DE)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 60.59%EV -8.73%E -5.75%K -16.79%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.71%EV -6.75%E -2.18%K -3.22%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.70%EV -6.18%E -0.650%K -0.727%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-03 17:55
Tipico (DE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.20%EV -9.93%E -6.62%K -19.87%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.62%EV -6.75%E -2.18%K -3.22%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.18%EV -1.24%E -0.124%K -0.138%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-03 16:25
Paddy Power🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.59%EV -9.93%E -6.62%K -19.87%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -6.75%E -2.18%K -3.22%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.10%EV -11.12%E -1.24%K -1.39%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-03 17:55
Marathon Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.96%EV -8.13%E -5.32%K -15.34%G +0.000%3.04I 32.89%NM 30.18%EV -8.56%E -2.81%K -4.19%G +0.000%9.30I 10.75%NM 9.86%EV -8.15%E -0.877%K -0.982%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-03 14:55
Unibet (UK)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.53%EV -6.93%E -4.47%K -12.60%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.76%EV -9.76%E -3.25%K -4.88%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.71%EV -6.18%E -0.650%K -0.727%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-03 14:39
Codere (IT)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.90%EV -8.13%E -5.32%K -15.34%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.55%EV -9.76%E -3.25%K -4.88%G +0.000%9.60I 10.42%NM 9.55%EV -5.19%E -0.541%K -0.604%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-03 14:35
888sport🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.26%EV -9.93%E -6.62%K -19.87%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.63%EV -9.76%E -3.25%K -4.88%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.11%EV -20.99%E -2.62%K -3.00%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-03 15:45
888sport (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.26%EV -9.93%E -6.62%K -19.87%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.63%EV -9.76%E -3.25%K -4.88%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.11%EV -20.99%E -2.62%K -3.00%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-03 15:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.26%EV -9.93%E -6.62%K -19.87%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.63%EV -9.76%E -3.25%K -4.88%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.11%EV -20.99%E -2.62%K -3.00%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-03 15:45
Winamax (FR)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 59.37%EV -11.13%E -7.52%K -23.20%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.30%EV -12.77%E -4.40%K -6.72%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.34%EV -16.05%E -1.89%K -2.14%G +0.000%13.8%2026-09-03 17:55
Betclic (FR)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 59.32%EV -10.53%E -7.07%K -21.50%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 30.80%EV -13.67%E -4.76%K -7.31%G +0.000%8.95I 11.17%NM 9.88%EV -11.61%E -1.30%K -1.46%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-03 17:48
Grosvenor🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.68%EV -2.13%E -1.31%K -3.38%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.60%EV -17.28%E -6.28%K -9.87%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.73%EV -6.18%E -0.650%K -0.727%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-03 08:00
Virgin Bet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.68%EV -2.13%E -1.31%K -3.38%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.60%EV -17.28%E -6.28%K -9.87%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.73%EV -6.18%E -0.650%K -0.727%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-03 08:00
Casumo🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.68%EV -2.13%E -1.31%K -3.38%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.60%EV -17.28%E -6.28%K -9.87%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.73%EV -6.18%E -0.650%K -0.727%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-03 08:00
LiveScore Bet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.68%EV -2.13%E -1.31%K -3.38%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.60%EV -17.28%E -6.28%K -9.87%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.73%EV -6.18%E -0.650%K -0.727%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-03 08:00
Unibet (NL)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.68%EV -2.13%E -1.31%K -3.38%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.60%EV -17.28%E -6.28%K -9.87%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.73%EV -6.18%E -0.650%K -0.727%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-03 08:00
Unibet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.68%EV -2.13%E -1.31%K -3.38%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.60%EV -17.28%E -6.28%K -9.87%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.73%EV -6.18%E -0.650%K -0.727%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-03 08:00
Svenska Spel🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.68%EV -2.13%E -1.31%K -3.38%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.60%EV -17.28%E -6.28%K -9.87%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.73%EV -6.18%E -0.650%K -0.727%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-03 08:00
ATG (SE)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.68%EV -2.13%E -1.31%K -3.38%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.60%EV -17.28%E -6.28%K -9.87%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.73%EV -6.18%E -0.650%K -0.727%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-03 08:00
PMU (FR)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 55.91%EV -5.73%E -3.65%K -10.05%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.76%EV -21.79%E -8.38%K -13.62%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.33%EV -16.05%E -1.89%K -2.14%G +0.000%13.9%2026-09-03 08:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.46I 68.49%NM 59.39%2.84I 35.21%NM 30.53%8.60I 11.63%NM 10.08%15.3%2026-09-03 17:55

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Pinnacle🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.41%2.66I 37.59%NM 35.59%5.6%2026-09-03 17:00