The School of Odds
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TBV Lemgo v HSV Hamburg

Kickoff: 2026-10-01 17:04 UTC

Final: TBV Lemgo 34–30 HSV Hamburg

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

TBV Lemgo (Local)

Prediction 67.34%1.48fair odd
EV +4.38%
Edge +2.83%
Kelly +7.97%
Growth +0.349%

assuming max odds 1.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.82%67.01%67.40%70.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.251.361.361.5580.00%73.72%73.53%64.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

HSV Hamburg (Visit)

Prediction 23.35%4.28fair odd
EV +1.12%
Edge +0.258%
Kelly +0.335%
Growth +0.004%

assuming max odds 4.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.22%23.66%23.41%29.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.873.804.3331.25%25.83%26.32%23.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 9.30%10.75fair odd
EV +2.34%
Edge +0.213%
Kelly +0.234%
Growth +0.005%

assuming max odds 11.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.37%9.33%9.18%10.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.509.8810.0011.0011.76%10.12%10.00%9.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: TBV Lemgo (Local): 67.34%; HSV Hamburg (Visit): 23.35%; Draw: 9.30%. For TBV Lemgo (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.48. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.55, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.38%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.82%EV +4.38%E +2.83%K +7.97%G +0.349%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.46%EV -25.27%E -7.90%K -11.49%G +0.000%9.70I 10.31%NM 9.72%EV -9.76%E -1.01%K -1.12%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-01 14:59
Unibet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.91%EV -7.07%E -5.12%K -18.59%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.30%EV -11.26%E -2.96%K -4.02%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.79%EV -2.31%E -0.220%K -0.244%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-01 08:25
Unibet (NL)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.91%EV -7.07%E -5.12%K -18.59%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.30%EV -11.26%E -2.96%K -4.02%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.79%EV -2.31%E -0.220%K -0.244%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-01 08:25
Virgin Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.91%EV -7.07%E -5.12%K -18.59%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.30%EV -11.26%E -2.96%K -4.02%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.79%EV -2.31%E -0.220%K -0.244%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-01 08:25
ATG (SE)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.91%EV -7.07%E -5.12%K -18.59%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.30%EV -11.26%E -2.96%K -4.02%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.79%EV -2.31%E -0.220%K -0.244%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-01 08:25
LiveScore Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.91%EV -7.07%E -5.12%K -18.59%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.30%EV -11.26%E -2.96%K -4.02%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.79%EV -2.31%E -0.220%K -0.244%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-01 08:24
Grosvenor🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.91%EV -7.07%E -5.12%K -18.59%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.30%EV -11.26%E -2.96%K -4.02%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.79%EV -2.31%E -0.220%K -0.244%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-01 08:25
Casumo🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.91%EV -7.07%E -5.12%K -18.59%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.30%EV -11.26%E -2.96%K -4.02%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.79%EV -2.31%E -0.220%K -0.244%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-01 08:25
Svenska Spel🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.91%EV -7.07%E -5.12%K -18.59%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.30%EV -11.26%E -2.96%K -4.02%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.79%EV -2.31%E -0.220%K -0.244%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-01 08:25
Unibet (UK)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 67.89%EV -7.74%E -5.65%K -20.92%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.25%EV -6.59%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.86%EV -2.31%E -0.220%K -0.244%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-01 16:50
Winamax (DE)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 67.89%EV -7.74%E -5.65%K -20.92%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.25%EV -6.59%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.86%EV -2.31%E -0.220%K -0.244%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-01 16:50
Marathon Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.43%EV -8.41%E -6.19%K -23.37%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 23.40%EV -8.46%E -2.16%K -2.90%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.17%EV -6.97%E -0.697%K -0.774%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-01 16:44
Codere (IT)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.35%EV -8.41%E -6.19%K -23.37%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.49%EV -8.92%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.16%EV -6.97%E -0.697%K -0.774%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-01 16:50
PMU (FR)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 65.35%EV -9.09%E -6.73%K -25.96%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.85%EV -17.10%E -4.82%K -6.71%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.80%EV -16.27%E -1.81%K -2.03%G +0.000%13.4%2026-10-01 08:25
Tipico (DE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.19%EV -10.43%E -7.84%K -31.61%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.44%EV -4.25%E -1.04%K -1.37%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.37%EV +2.34%E +0.213%K +0.234%G +0.005%8.7%2026-10-01 16:54
Paddy Power🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.24%EV -10.43%E -7.84%K -31.61%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.69%EV -6.59%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.08%EV -6.97%E -0.697%K -0.774%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-30 21:14
888sport🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 67.16%EV -10.43%E -7.84%K -31.61%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.33%EV -6.59%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.51%EV -20.92%E -2.46%K -2.79%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-01 16:45
888sport (SE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 67.16%EV -10.43%E -7.84%K -31.61%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.33%EV -6.59%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.51%EV -20.92%E -2.46%K -2.79%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-01 16:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 67.16%EV -10.43%E -7.84%K -31.61%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.33%EV -6.59%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.51%EV -20.92%E -2.46%K -2.79%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-01 16:45
Betclic (FR)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 66.57%EV -10.43%E -7.84%K -31.61%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.26%EV -14.76%E -4.04%K -5.57%G +0.000%9.65I 10.36%NM 9.17%EV -10.22%E -1.06%K -1.18%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-01 16:49
Winamax (FR)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 66.64%EV -11.11%E -8.41%K -34.71%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.10%EV -14.76%E -4.04%K -5.57%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.26%EV -11.62%E -1.22%K -1.37%G +0.000%13.7%2026-10-01 16:50
Betsson🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 70.05%EV -15.82%E -12.66%K -63.28%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.22%EV +1.12%E +0.258%K +0.335%G +0.004%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.73%EV -16.27%E -1.81%K -2.03%G +0.000%14.2%2026-10-01 16:55
NordicBet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 70.05%EV -15.82%E -12.66%K -63.28%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.22%EV +1.12%E +0.258%K +0.335%G +0.004%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.73%EV -16.27%E -1.81%K -2.03%G +0.000%14.2%2026-10-01 16:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.31I 76.34%NM 66.16%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.42%9.20I 10.87%NM 9.42%15.4%2026-10-01 16:50

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Pinnacle🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.28%3.39I 29.50%NM 27.72%6.4%2026-10-01 15:30