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TBV Lemgo v HSV Hamburg

Kickoff: 2026-02-26 18:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

20 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

TBV Lemgo (Local)

Prediction 66.71%1.50fair odd
EV -6.61%
Edge -4.72%
Kelly -16.52%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.53%66.75%66.99%68.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.331.371.381.4075.19%72.99%72.46%71.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

HSV Hamburg (Visit)

Prediction 24.00%4.17fair odd
EV +0.805%
Edge +0.192%
Kelly +0.252%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.07%23.93%23.75%26.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.333.803.854.2030.03%26.32%25.97%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 9.29%10.76fair odd
EV -2.45%
Edge -0.233%
Kelly -0.258%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 10.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.85%9.31%9.26%9.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
9.009.8810.0010.5011.11%10.12%10.00%9.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: TBV Lemgo (Local): 66.71%; HSV Hamburg (Visit): 24.00%; Draw: 9.29%. For HSV Hamburg (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.17. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.805%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (20 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.66%EV -9.94%E -7.37%K -28.41%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.07%EV +0.805%E +0.192%K +0.252%G +0.002%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.27%EV -7.09%E -0.709%K -0.788%G +0.000%7.9%2026-02-26 15:04
Virgin Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.43%EV -7.94%E -5.76%K -20.90%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -3.99%E -0.999%K -1.33%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.31%EV -7.09%E -0.709%K -0.788%G +0.000%7.5%2026-02-24 09:24
LeoVegas🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.43%EV -7.94%E -5.76%K -20.90%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -3.99%E -0.999%K -1.33%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.31%EV -7.09%E -0.709%K -0.788%G +0.000%7.5%2026-02-24 09:25
Unibet (NL)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.43%EV -7.94%E -5.76%K -20.90%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -3.99%E -0.999%K -1.33%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.31%EV -7.09%E -0.709%K -0.788%G +0.000%7.5%2026-02-24 09:24
Grosvenor🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.43%EV -7.94%E -5.76%K -20.90%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -3.99%E -0.999%K -1.33%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.31%EV -7.09%E -0.709%K -0.788%G +0.000%7.5%2026-02-24 09:24
Casumo🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.43%EV -7.94%E -5.76%K -20.90%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -3.99%E -0.999%K -1.33%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.31%EV -7.09%E -0.709%K -0.788%G +0.000%7.5%2026-02-24 09:25
Unibet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.43%EV -7.94%E -5.76%K -20.90%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -3.99%E -0.999%K -1.33%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.31%EV -7.09%E -0.709%K -0.788%G +0.000%7.5%2026-02-24 09:30
LiveScore Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.43%EV -7.94%E -5.76%K -20.90%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -3.99%E -0.999%K -1.33%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.31%EV -7.09%E -0.709%K -0.788%G +0.000%7.5%2026-02-24 09:30
Marathon Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.43%EV -9.28%E -6.82%K -25.77%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 23.40%EV -5.91%E -1.51%K -2.03%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.17%EV -7.09%E -0.709%K -0.788%G +0.000%9.0%2026-02-26 15:35
Tipico (DE)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 67.19%EV -8.61%E -6.28%K -23.27%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.60%EV -6.39%E -1.64%K -2.21%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -7.09%E -0.709%K -0.788%G +0.000%8.6%2026-02-26 15:04
Winamax (DE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.59%EV -6.61%E -4.72%K -16.52%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -8.80%E -2.31%K -3.14%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.88%EV -2.45%E -0.233%K -0.258%G +0.000%7.3%2026-02-26 15:05
Unibet (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.59%EV -6.61%E -4.72%K -16.52%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -8.80%E -2.31%K -3.14%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.88%EV -2.45%E -0.233%K -0.258%G +0.000%7.3%2026-02-26 15:05
Paddy Power🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.41%EV -9.28%E -6.82%K -25.77%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.08%EV -10.00%E -2.67%K -3.63%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.51%EV -11.74%E -1.24%K -1.38%G +0.000%10.7%2026-02-26 15:04
888sport🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 66.56%EV -11.28%E -8.48%K -34.18%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.61%EV -10.00%E -2.67%K -3.63%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.84%EV -16.38%E -1.82%K -2.05%G +0.000%13.0%2026-02-26 15:35
NordicBet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 65.96%EV -7.94%E -5.76%K -20.90%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.94%EV -12.40%E -3.40%K -4.68%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.10%EV -7.09%E -0.709%K -0.788%G +0.000%9.9%2026-02-26 15:05
Betsson🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 65.96%EV -7.94%E -5.76%K -20.90%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.94%EV -12.40%E -3.40%K -4.68%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.10%EV -7.09%E -0.709%K -0.788%G +0.000%9.9%2026-02-26 15:05
Winamax (FR)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 64.88%EV -9.94%E -7.37%K -28.41%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.39%EV -17.20%E -4.98%K -7.02%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.73%EV -16.38%E -1.82%K -2.05%G +0.000%14.2%2026-02-26 15:05
Coral🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.10%EV -9.28%E -6.82%K -25.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.04%EV -18.40%E -5.41%K -7.66%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.85%EV -7.09%E -0.709%K -0.788%G +0.000%12.9%2026-02-25 11:14
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.10%EV -9.28%E -6.82%K -25.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.04%EV -18.40%E -5.41%K -7.66%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.85%EV -7.09%E -0.709%K -0.788%G +0.000%12.9%2026-02-25 11:20
Betclic (FR)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 64.53%EV -10.61%E -7.92%K -31.21%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 25.97%EV -20.08%E -6.03%K -8.62%G +0.000%9.10I 10.99%NM 9.50%EV -15.46%E -1.70%K -1.91%G +0.000%15.6%2026-02-26 17:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.34I 74.63%NM 64.56%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.82%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.61%15.6%2026-02-26 15:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.31I 76.34%NM 39.01%4.00I 25.00%NM 12.78%1.06I 94.34%NM 48.21%95.7%2026-02-26 17:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.31I 76.34%NM 28.80%1.06I 94.34%NM 35.60%1.06I 94.34%NM 35.60%165.0%2026-02-26 17:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.31I 76.34%NM 28.80%1.06I 94.34%NM 35.60%1.06I 94.34%NM 35.60%165.0%2026-02-26 17:35

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Pinnacle🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 73.87%3.59I 27.86%NM 26.13%6.6%2026-02-26 15:35