The School of Odds
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TBV Lemgo v Füchse Berlin

Kickoff: 2026-04-09 17:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

1 sportsbook (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

TBV Lemgo (Local)

Prediction 24.95%4.01fair odd
EV -6.19%
Edge -1.65%
Kelly -2.24%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.76

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.95%24.95%24.95%24.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.763.763.763.7626.60%26.60%26.60%26.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Füchse Berlin (Visit)

Prediction 75.05%1.33fair odd
EV -6.19%
Edge -4.95%
Kelly -24.75%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
75.05%75.05%75.05%75.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.251.251.251.2580.00%80.00%80.00%80.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: TBV Lemgo (Local): 24.95%; Füchse Berlin (Visit): 75.05%. For Füchse Berlin (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.33. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.25, with an expected value of -6.19%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (1 sportsbook)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯3.76I 26.60%NM 24.95%EV -6.19%E -1.65%K -2.24%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.05%EV -6.19%E -4.95%K -24.75%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-09 14:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.