The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

TBV Lemgo v Frisch Auf Göppingen

Kickoff: 2026-10-18 14:30 UTC

Final: TBV Lemgo 28–26 Frisch Auf Göppingen

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

TBV Lemgo (Local)

Prediction 68.31%1.46fair odd
EV -1.63%
Edge -1.13%
Kelly -3.70%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.44

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.70%67.93%68.40%69.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.301.361.351.4476.92%73.53%74.07%69.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Frisch Auf Göppingen (Visit)

Prediction 22.84%4.38fair odd
EV -1.11%
Edge -0.256%
Kelly -0.333%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.78%23.14%22.72%25.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.913.754.3329.41%25.57%26.67%23.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 8.85%11.30fair odd
EV +1.76%
Edge +0.153%
Kelly +0.167%
Growth +0.003%

assuming max odds 11.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.10%8.93%8.88%10.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
9.0010.2010.5011.5011.11%9.80%9.52%8.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: TBV Lemgo (Local): 68.31%; Frisch Auf Göppingen (Visit): 22.84%; Draw: 8.85%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 11.30. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 11.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.76%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Winamax (DE)🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 67.04%EV -5.05%E -3.63%K -12.94%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.85%EV -14.35%E -3.83%K -5.22%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.10%EV +1.76%E +0.153%K +0.167%G +0.003%7.3%2026-10-18 14:19
Unibet (UK)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.24%EV -7.78%E -5.76%K -22.22%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.26%EV -4.08%E -0.971%K -1.27%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.50%EV -2.67%E -0.242%K -0.267%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-18 14:19
NordicBet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.87%EV -7.78%E -5.76%K -22.22%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.68%EV -6.36%E -1.55%K -2.05%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.45%EV -2.67%E -0.242%K -0.267%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-18 14:20
Betsson🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.87%EV -7.78%E -5.76%K -22.22%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.68%EV -6.36%E -1.55%K -2.05%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.45%EV -2.67%E -0.242%K -0.267%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-18 14:19
Tipico (DE)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 69.72%EV -9.83%E -7.44%K -30.71%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -4.08%E -0.971%K -1.27%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.37%EV -2.67%E -0.242%K -0.267%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-18 14:24
Coolbet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.74%EV -1.63%E -1.13%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.24%EV -14.35%E -3.83%K -5.22%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.02%EV -7.09%E -0.675%K -0.746%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-18 08:45
Unibet🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 65.76%EV -3.68%E -2.61%K -8.97%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.40%EV -16.64%E -4.56%K -6.28%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.83%EV -7.09%E -0.675%K -0.746%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-18 14:19
Virgin Bet🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 65.76%EV -3.68%E -2.61%K -8.97%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.40%EV -16.64%E -4.56%K -6.28%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.83%EV -7.09%E -0.675%K -0.746%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-18 14:19
Grosvenor🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 65.76%EV -3.68%E -2.61%K -8.97%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.40%EV -16.64%E -4.56%K -6.28%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.83%EV -7.09%E -0.675%K -0.746%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-18 14:20
LiveScore Bet🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 65.76%EV -3.68%E -2.61%K -8.97%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.40%EV -16.64%E -4.56%K -6.28%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.83%EV -7.09%E -0.675%K -0.746%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-18 14:19
Casumo🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 65.76%EV -3.68%E -2.61%K -8.97%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.40%EV -16.64%E -4.56%K -6.28%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.83%EV -7.09%E -0.675%K -0.746%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-18 14:20
ATG (SE)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 65.76%EV -3.68%E -2.61%K -8.97%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.40%EV -16.64%E -4.56%K -6.28%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.83%EV -7.09%E -0.675%K -0.746%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-18 14:19
Svenska Spel🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 65.76%EV -3.68%E -2.61%K -8.97%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.40%EV -16.64%E -4.56%K -6.28%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.83%EV -7.09%E -0.675%K -0.746%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-18 14:19
Codere (IT)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 68.07%EV -8.46%E -6.31%K -24.89%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.80%EV -8.65%E -2.16%K -2.88%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.12%EV -11.51%E -1.15%K -1.28%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-18 14:19
Paddy Power🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.47%EV -11.19%E -8.61%K -37.31%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.50%EV -4.08%E -0.971%K -1.27%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.03%EV -11.51%E -1.15%K -1.28%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-18 14:19
Winamax (FR)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 65.44%EV -8.46%E -6.31%K -24.89%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.79%EV -22.35%E -6.57%K -9.31%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.77%EV -11.51%E -1.15%K -1.28%G +0.000%14.0%2026-10-18 14:19
Betclic (FR)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 67.17%EV -9.83%E -7.44%K -30.71%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.64%EV -14.35%E -3.83%K -5.22%G +0.000%9.65I 10.36%NM 9.19%EV -14.61%E -1.51%K -1.69%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-18 14:19
Unibet (NL)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 64.70%EV -3.68%E -2.61%K -8.97%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.70%EV -18.92%E -5.33%K -7.42%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.60%EV -15.94%E -1.68%K -1.88%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-18 14:20
Coral🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.14%EV -11.19%E -8.61%K -37.31%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.40%EV -4.08%E -0.971%K -1.27%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.46%EV -15.94%E -1.68%K -1.88%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-18 14:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.14%EV -11.19%E -8.61%K -37.31%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.40%EV -4.08%E -0.971%K -1.27%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.46%EV -15.94%E -1.68%K -1.88%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-18 14:15
888sport🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.22%EV -11.19%E -8.61%K -37.31%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.78%EV -1.11%E -0.256%K -0.333%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.00%EV -20.36%E -2.26%K -2.55%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-18 14:24
888sport (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.22%EV -11.19%E -8.61%K -37.31%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.78%EV -1.11%E -0.256%K -0.333%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.00%EV -20.36%E -2.26%K -2.55%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-18 14:24
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.22%EV -11.19%E -8.61%K -37.31%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.78%EV -1.11%E -0.256%K -0.333%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.00%EV -20.36%E -2.26%K -2.55%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-18 14:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.30I 76.92%NM 66.78%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.78%9.20I 10.87%NM 9.44%15.2%2026-10-18 14:20

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Pinnacle🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 73.71%3.56I 28.09%NM 26.29%6.8%2026-10-18 13:40