The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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SG Flensburg-Handewitt v Füchse Berlin

Kickoff: 2026-10-18 13:03 UTC

Final: SG Flensburg-Handewitt 34–33 Füchse Berlin

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

SG Flensburg-Handewitt (Local)

Prediction 56.51%1.77fair odd
EV -3.36%
Edge -1.97%
Kelly -4.73%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.71

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.15%56.65%56.42%58.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.571.611.611.7163.69%62.13%62.11%58.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Füchse Berlin (Visit)

Prediction 32.09%3.12fair odd
EV -3.73%
Edge -1.24%
Kelly -1.86%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.64%32.04%32.19%33.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.872.903.0037.04%34.83%34.48%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 11.40%8.78fair odd
EV +8.26%
Edge +0.869%
Kelly +0.971%
Growth +0.080%

assuming max odds 9.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
9.90%11.30%11.39%12.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.007.878.009.5014.29%12.71%12.50%10.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: SG Flensburg-Handewitt (Local): 56.51%; Füchse Berlin (Visit): 32.09%; Draw: 11.40%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.78. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 9.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.26%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.76%EV -9.58%E -5.99%K -15.96%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -3.73%E -1.24%K -1.86%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.90%EV +8.26%E +0.869%K +0.971%G +0.080%6.4%2026-10-18 08:35
Unibet (UK)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.72%EV -6.75%E -4.09%K -10.39%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.27%EV -6.94%E -2.39%K -3.65%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.01%EV -3.14%E -0.369%K -0.419%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-18 12:49
Tipico (DE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.55%EV -11.27%E -7.18%K -19.78%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.64%EV -3.73%E -1.24%K -1.86%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.81%EV -3.14%E -0.369%K -0.419%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-18 12:50
Codere (IT)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.47%EV -7.88%E -4.84%K -12.51%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.30%EV -8.54%E -3.00%K -4.62%G +0.000%8.20I 12.20%NM 11.23%EV -6.56%E -0.800%K -0.911%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-18 12:54
Winamax (DE)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.48%EV -7.32%E -4.46%K -11.43%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.94%EV -6.94%E -2.39%K -3.65%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.58%EV -8.84%E -1.10%K -1.26%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-18 12:49
Unibet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.93%EV -9.01%E -5.60%K -14.77%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.61%EV -6.94%E -2.39%K -3.65%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.46%EV -8.84%E -1.10%K -1.26%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-18 10:09
Virgin Bet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.93%EV -9.01%E -5.60%K -14.77%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.61%EV -6.94%E -2.39%K -3.65%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.46%EV -8.84%E -1.10%K -1.26%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-18 10:09
Grosvenor🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.93%EV -9.01%E -5.60%K -14.77%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.61%EV -6.94%E -2.39%K -3.65%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.46%EV -8.84%E -1.10%K -1.26%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-18 10:09
LiveScore Bet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.93%EV -9.01%E -5.60%K -14.77%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.61%EV -6.94%E -2.39%K -3.65%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.46%EV -8.84%E -1.10%K -1.26%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-18 10:09
Casumo🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.93%EV -9.01%E -5.60%K -14.77%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.61%EV -6.94%E -2.39%K -3.65%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.46%EV -8.84%E -1.10%K -1.26%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-18 10:09
ATG (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.93%EV -9.01%E -5.60%K -14.77%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.61%EV -6.94%E -2.39%K -3.65%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.46%EV -8.84%E -1.10%K -1.26%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-18 10:09
Svenska Spel🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.93%EV -9.01%E -5.60%K -14.77%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.61%EV -6.94%E -2.39%K -3.65%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.46%EV -8.84%E -1.10%K -1.26%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-18 10:09
Unibet (NL)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.62%EV -9.01%E -5.60%K -14.77%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.99%EV -8.54%E -3.00%K -4.62%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.39%EV -8.84%E -1.10%K -1.26%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-18 10:09
NordicBet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.15%EV -3.36%E -1.97%K -4.73%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.67%EV -11.75%E -4.27%K -6.71%G +0.000%7.60I 13.16%NM 12.18%EV -13.40%E -1.76%K -2.03%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-18 12:50
Betsson🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.15%EV -3.36%E -1.97%K -4.73%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.67%EV -11.75%E -4.27%K -6.71%G +0.000%7.60I 13.16%NM 12.18%EV -13.40%E -1.76%K -2.03%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-18 12:49
Betclic (FR)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 55.90%EV -10.71%E -6.78%K -18.46%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 32.47%EV -12.71%E -4.67%K -7.39%G +0.000%7.60I 13.16%NM 11.62%EV -13.40%E -1.76%K -2.03%G +0.000%13.2%2026-10-18 12:50
Paddy Power🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.23%EV -8.45%E -5.21%K -13.62%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.63%EV -7.58%E -2.63%K -4.03%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.15%EV -14.54%E -1.94%K -2.24%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-18 12:50
888sport🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.00%EV -11.27%E -7.18%K -19.78%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.07%EV -7.58%E -2.63%K -4.03%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.93%EV -14.54%E -1.94%K -2.24%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-18 12:39
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.00%EV -11.27%E -7.18%K -19.78%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.07%EV -7.58%E -2.63%K -4.03%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.93%EV -14.54%E -1.94%K -2.24%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-18 12:39
888sport (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.00%EV -11.27%E -7.18%K -19.78%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.07%EV -7.58%E -2.63%K -4.03%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.93%EV -14.54%E -1.94%K -2.24%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-18 12:39
Winamax (FR)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 55.68%EV -10.71%E -6.78%K -18.46%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.59%EV -13.36%E -4.95%K -7.86%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.73%EV -14.54%E -1.94%K -2.24%G +0.000%13.7%2026-10-18 12:49
Coral🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.64%EV -11.27%E -7.18%K -19.78%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.66%EV -6.94%E -2.39%K -3.65%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.70%EV -20.23%E -2.89%K -3.37%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-18 12:49
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.64%EV -11.27%E -7.18%K -19.78%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.66%EV -6.94%E -2.39%K -3.65%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.70%EV -20.23%E -2.89%K -3.37%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-18 12:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.56I 64.10%NM 55.64%2.66I 37.59%NM 32.63%7.40I 13.51%NM 11.73%15.2%2026-10-18 12:50

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Pinnacle🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.59%2.83I 35.34%NM 33.41%5.8%2026-10-18 12:55