The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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SG Flensburg-Handewitt v Frisch Auf Göppingen

Kickoff: 2026-10-03 17:00 UTC

Final: SG Flensburg-Handewitt 32–27 Frisch Auf Göppingen

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

SG Flensburg-Handewitt (Local)

Prediction 84.85%1.18fair odd
EV -4.97%
Edge -4.44%
Kelly -41.40%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.12

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
79.94%84.85%84.97%87.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.051.091.081.1295.24%91.52%92.59%89.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Frisch Auf Göppingen (Visit)

Prediction 9.54%10.48fair odd
EV +14.49%
Edge +1.21%
Kelly +1.32%
Growth +0.191%

assuming max odds 12.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.66%9.46%9.45%13.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.758.888.4012.0014.81%11.26%11.90%8.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 5.61%17.83fair odd
EV +6.57%
Edge +0.346%
Kelly +0.365%
Growth +0.024%

assuming max odds 19.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
4.84%5.69%5.59%7.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
12.0015.3416.0019.008.33%6.52%6.25%5.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: SG Flensburg-Handewitt (Local): 84.85%; Frisch Auf Göppingen (Visit): 9.54%; Draw: 5.61%. For Frisch Auf Göppingen (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 10.48. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 12.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +14.49%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 87.51%EV -10.91%E -10.39%K -218.15%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.66%EV +14.49%E +1.21%K +1.32%G +0.191%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.84%EV +6.57%E +0.346%K +0.365%G +0.024%8.8%2026-10-01 07:04
Betsson🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 86.17%EV -10.06%E -9.49%K -167.65%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.94%EV +9.72%E +0.845%K +0.926%G +0.090%15.50I 6.45%NM 5.89%EV -13.06%E -0.842%K -0.901%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-01 13:00
Paddy Power🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 85.69%EV -10.06%E -9.49%K -167.65%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.26%EV +4.95%E +0.450%K +0.495%G +0.024%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.06%EV -15.86%E -1.06%K -1.13%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-02 08:40
Winamax (DE)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 85.73%EV -8.36%E -7.74%K -104.52%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.82%EV +0.177%E +0.017%K +0.019%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.45%EV -4.64%E -0.273%K -0.290%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-02 08:35
Unibet (UK)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 85.73%EV -8.36%E -7.74%K -104.52%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.82%EV +0.177%E +0.017%K +0.019%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.45%EV -4.64%E -0.273%K -0.290%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-02 08:35
Coolbet🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.07%EV -5.82%E -5.24%K -52.88%G +0.000%9.90I 10.10%NM 9.54%EV -5.55%E -0.560%K -0.623%G +0.000%17.50I 5.71%NM 5.40%EV -1.84%E -0.105%K -0.111%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-03 14:14
Codere (IT)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 84.91%EV -8.36%E -7.74%K -104.52%G +0.000%9.80I 10.20%NM 9.36%EV -6.50%E -0.663%K -0.739%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.73%EV -10.25%E -0.641%K -0.684%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-02 17:10
888sport🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 82.64%EV -8.36%E -7.74%K -104.52%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.50%EV -18.90%E -2.22%K -2.52%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.87%EV -27.08%E -2.08%K -2.26%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-03 15:40
888sport (SE)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 82.64%EV -8.36%E -7.74%K -104.52%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.50%EV -18.90%E -2.22%K -2.52%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.87%EV -27.08%E -2.08%K -2.26%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-03 15:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 82.64%EV -8.36%E -7.74%K -104.52%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.50%EV -18.90%E -2.22%K -2.52%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.87%EV -27.08%E -2.08%K -2.26%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-03 15:40
NordicBet🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 82.30%EV -9.21%E -8.61%K -131.58%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.36%EV -18.90%E -2.22%K -2.52%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.34%EV -32.69%E -2.72%K -2.97%G +0.000%13.6%2026-10-03 16:55
Betclic (FR)🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 84.14%EV -9.21%E -8.61%K -131.58%G +0.000%8.40I 11.90%NM 10.72%EV -19.86%E -2.36%K -2.68%G +0.000%17.50I 5.71%NM 5.14%EV -1.84%E -0.105%K -0.111%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-03 16:46
Marathon Bet🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 82.60%EV -5.82%E -5.24%K -52.88%G +0.000%8.20I 12.20%NM 11.18%EV -21.77%E -2.65%K -3.02%G +0.000%14.75I 6.78%NM 6.22%EV -17.26%E -1.17%K -1.26%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-03 16:40
Unibet🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 82.64%EV -4.97%E -4.44%K -41.40%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.57%EV -23.67%E -2.96%K -3.38%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.79%EV -10.25%E -0.641%K -0.684%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-03 07:50
Virgin Bet🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 82.64%EV -4.97%E -4.44%K -41.40%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.57%EV -23.67%E -2.96%K -3.38%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.79%EV -10.25%E -0.641%K -0.684%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-03 07:50
ATG (SE)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 82.64%EV -4.97%E -4.44%K -41.40%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.57%EV -23.67%E -2.96%K -3.38%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.79%EV -10.25%E -0.641%K -0.684%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-03 07:50
LiveScore Bet🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 82.64%EV -4.97%E -4.44%K -41.40%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.57%EV -23.67%E -2.96%K -3.38%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.79%EV -10.25%E -0.641%K -0.684%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-03 07:49
Grosvenor🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 82.64%EV -4.97%E -4.44%K -41.40%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.57%EV -23.67%E -2.96%K -3.38%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.79%EV -10.25%E -0.641%K -0.684%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-03 07:50
Unibet (NL)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 82.64%EV -4.97%E -4.44%K -41.40%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.57%EV -23.67%E -2.96%K -3.38%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.79%EV -10.25%E -0.641%K -0.684%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-03 07:50
Casumo🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 82.64%EV -4.97%E -4.44%K -41.40%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.57%EV -23.67%E -2.96%K -3.38%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.79%EV -10.25%E -0.641%K -0.684%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-03 07:50
Svenska Spel🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 82.64%EV -4.97%E -4.44%K -41.40%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.57%EV -23.67%E -2.96%K -3.38%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.79%EV -10.25%E -0.641%K -0.684%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-03 07:50
Winamax (FR)🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 81.63%EV -10.06%E -9.49%K -167.65%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.16%EV -26.06%E -3.36%K -3.86%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.21%EV -32.69%E -2.72%K -2.97%G +0.000%15.6%2026-10-02 08:35
PMU (FR)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 79.94%EV -6.66%E -6.06%K -66.65%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.03%EV -35.60%E -5.27%K -6.19%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.03%EV -29.89%E -2.39%K -2.60%G +0.000%13.7%2026-10-03 07:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.06I 94.34%NM 81.92%7.80I 12.82%NM 11.13%12.50I 8.00%NM 6.95%15.2%2026-10-02 08:35

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Pinnacle🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 86.43%6.88I 14.53%NM 13.57%7.1%2026-10-03 15:25