The School of Odds
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SG BBM Bietigheim v HSV Hamburg

Kickoff: 2026-10-17 17:00 UTC

Final: SG BBM Bietigheim 30–35 HSV Hamburg

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

SG BBM Bietigheim (Local)

Prediction 41.13%2.43fair odd
EV -2.53%
Edge -1.07%
Kelly -1.85%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.37

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.83%41.13%41.19%42.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.222.232.3748.78%45.13%44.84%42.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

HSV Hamburg (Visit)

Prediction 46.70%2.14fair odd
EV -6.60%
Edge -3.30%
Kelly -6.60%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.17%46.93%46.64%49.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.901.941.942.0052.63%51.43%51.55%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 12.18%8.21fair odd
EV +9.58%
Edge +1.06%
Kelly +1.20%
Growth +0.115%

assuming max odds 9.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.49%11.95%12.17%13.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.507.797.609.0015.38%12.84%13.16%11.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: SG BBM Bietigheim (Local): 41.13%; HSV Hamburg (Visit): 46.70%; Draw: 12.18%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.21. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 9.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +9.58%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 39.83%EV -2.53%E -1.07%K -1.85%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.68%EV -11.27%E -5.93%K -12.53%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.49%EV +9.58%E +1.06%K +1.20%G +0.115%5.9%2026-10-17 12:15
Unibet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.56%EV -8.29%E -3.72%K -6.74%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.53%EV -8.94%E -4.58%K -9.41%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.90%EV +3.49%E +0.411%K +0.465%G +0.016%7.9%2026-10-17 08:39
Virgin Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.56%EV -8.29%E -3.72%K -6.74%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.53%EV -8.94%E -4.58%K -9.41%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.90%EV +3.49%E +0.411%K +0.465%G +0.016%7.9%2026-10-17 08:40
LiveScore Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.56%EV -8.29%E -3.72%K -6.74%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.53%EV -8.94%E -4.58%K -9.41%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.90%EV +3.49%E +0.411%K +0.465%G +0.016%7.9%2026-10-17 08:40
Grosvenor🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.46%EV -8.29%E -3.72%K -6.74%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 47.66%EV -9.41%E -4.85%K -10.01%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.88%EV +3.49%E +0.411%K +0.465%G +0.016%8.2%2026-10-17 08:40
Casumo🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.46%EV -8.29%E -3.72%K -6.74%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 47.66%EV -9.41%E -4.85%K -10.01%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.88%EV +3.49%E +0.411%K +0.465%G +0.016%8.2%2026-10-17 08:40
ATG (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.46%EV -8.29%E -3.72%K -6.74%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 47.66%EV -9.41%E -4.85%K -10.01%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.88%EV +3.49%E +0.411%K +0.465%G +0.016%8.2%2026-10-17 08:39
Svenska Spel🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.46%EV -8.29%E -3.72%K -6.74%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 47.66%EV -9.41%E -4.85%K -10.01%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.88%EV +3.49%E +0.411%K +0.465%G +0.016%8.2%2026-10-17 08:40
Tipico (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.87%EV -7.47%E -3.32%K -5.97%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 47.64%EV -9.87%E -5.12%K -10.62%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.49%EV -2.60%E -0.325%K -0.371%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-17 15:35
Unibet (NL)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.51%EV -9.52%E -4.33%K -7.94%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 47.07%EV -9.41%E -4.85%K -10.01%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.42%EV -2.60%E -0.325%K -0.371%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-17 08:39
Winamax (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.51%EV -11.58%E -5.39%K -10.07%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.70%EV -6.60%E -3.30%K -6.60%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.79%EV -5.64%E -0.728%K -0.836%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-16 15:20
NordicBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.21%EV -7.47%E -3.32%K -5.97%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 46.59%EV -7.07%E -3.55%K -7.14%G +0.000%7.60I 13.16%NM 12.20%EV -7.47%E -0.982%K -1.13%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-16 15:24
Betsson🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.21%EV -7.47%E -3.32%K -5.97%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 46.59%EV -7.07%E -3.55%K -7.14%G +0.000%7.60I 13.16%NM 12.20%EV -7.47%E -0.982%K -1.13%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-16 15:25
Unibet (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.24%EV -7.47%E -3.32%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.39%EV -6.60%E -3.30%K -6.60%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.37%EV -8.68%E -1.16%K -1.34%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-16 14:20
888sport🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.90%EV -9.52%E -4.33%K -7.94%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.11%EV -10.81%E -5.66%K -11.87%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.00%EV -8.68%E -1.16%K -1.34%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-17 16:30
888sport (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.90%EV -9.52%E -4.33%K -7.94%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.11%EV -10.81%E -5.66%K -11.87%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.00%EV -8.68%E -1.16%K -1.34%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-17 16:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.90%EV -9.52%E -4.33%K -7.94%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.11%EV -10.81%E -5.66%K -11.87%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.00%EV -8.68%E -1.16%K -1.34%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-17 16:30
Codere (IT)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.10%EV -8.29%E -3.72%K -6.74%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 46.52%EV -8.00%E -4.06%K -8.25%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.38%EV -9.90%E -1.34%K -1.55%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-16 17:05
Winamax (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.74%EV -15.69%E -7.65%K -14.94%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 45.17%EV -9.41%E -4.85%K -10.01%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.09%EV -11.73%E -1.62%K -1.88%G +0.000%14.1%2026-10-17 05:15
Betclic (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.14%EV -11.58%E -5.39%K -10.07%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 46.31%EV -10.81%E -5.66%K -11.87%G +0.000%7.05I 14.18%NM 12.55%EV -14.16%E -2.01%K -2.34%G +0.000%13.1%2026-10-17 16:47
Paddy Power🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.55%EV -9.52%E -4.33%K -7.94%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 46.71%EV -10.81%E -5.66%K -11.87%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.74%EV -14.77%E -2.11%K -2.46%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-16 15:25
Coral🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -9.52%E -4.33%K -7.94%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.74%EV -8.94%E -4.58%K -9.41%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.72%EV -20.86%E -3.21%K -3.79%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-16 15:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -9.52%E -4.33%K -7.94%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.74%EV -8.94%E -4.58%K -9.41%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.72%EV -20.86%E -3.21%K -3.79%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-16 15:24
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎2.10I 47.62%NM 41.22%1.88I 53.19%NM 46.05%6.80I 14.71%NM 12.73%15.5%2026-10-16 15:25

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Pinnacle🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 45.95%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.05%5.1%2026-10-17 12:30