The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

SC Magdeburg v THW Kiel

Kickoff: 2026-09-30 17:00 UTC

Final: SC Magdeburg 32–26 THW Kiel

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

SC Magdeburg (Local)

Prediction 64.13%1.56fair odd
EV +0.682%
Edge +0.435%
Kelly +1.20%
Growth +0.008%

assuming max odds 1.57

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.88%63.81%64.09%66.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.351.401.401.5774.07%71.38%71.43%63.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

THW Kiel (Visit)

Prediction 26.42%3.78fair odd
EV +0.414%
Edge +0.109%
Kelly +0.148%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.30%26.65%26.56%30.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.583.553.8032.26%27.94%28.17%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 9.45%10.59fair odd
EV +13.36%
Edge +1.11%
Kelly +1.21%
Growth +0.162%

assuming max odds 12.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.73%9.54%9.35%11.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.009.8210.0012.0012.50%10.18%10.00%8.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: SC Magdeburg (Local): 64.13%; THW Kiel (Visit): 26.42%; Draw: 9.45%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 10.59. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 12.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +13.36%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Winamax (DE)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 65.77%EV -9.58%E -6.79%K -23.36%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.50%EV -7.51%E -2.15%K -3.01%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.73%EV +13.36%E +1.11%K +1.21%G +0.162%7.8%2026-09-30 16:50
Winamax (FR)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 64.57%EV -12.78%E -9.40%K -35.51%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.44%EV -15.44%E -4.83%K -7.02%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 7.98%EV +3.91%E +0.355%K +0.391%G +0.015%13.9%2026-09-30 16:50
Unibet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.91%EV -11.50%E -8.33%K -30.27%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.30%EV +0.414%E +0.109%K +0.148%G +0.001%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.79%EV -0.813%E -0.077%K -0.086%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-30 16:50
Unibet (NL)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.91%EV -11.50%E -8.33%K -30.27%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.30%EV +0.414%E +0.109%K +0.148%G +0.001%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.79%EV -0.813%E -0.077%K -0.086%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-30 16:50
Virgin Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.91%EV -11.50%E -8.33%K -30.27%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.30%EV +0.414%E +0.109%K +0.148%G +0.001%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.79%EV -0.813%E -0.077%K -0.086%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-30 16:50
ATG (SE)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.91%EV -11.50%E -8.33%K -30.27%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.30%EV +0.414%E +0.109%K +0.148%G +0.001%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.79%EV -0.813%E -0.077%K -0.086%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-30 16:50
LiveScore Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.91%EV -11.50%E -8.33%K -30.27%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.30%EV +0.414%E +0.109%K +0.148%G +0.001%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.79%EV -0.813%E -0.077%K -0.086%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-30 16:50
Grosvenor🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.91%EV -11.50%E -8.33%K -30.27%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.30%EV +0.414%E +0.109%K +0.148%G +0.001%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.79%EV -0.813%E -0.077%K -0.086%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-30 16:50
Casumo🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.91%EV -11.50%E -8.33%K -30.27%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.30%EV +0.414%E +0.109%K +0.148%G +0.001%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.79%EV -0.813%E -0.077%K -0.086%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-30 16:50
Svenska Spel🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.91%EV -11.50%E -8.33%K -30.27%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.30%EV +0.414%E +0.109%K +0.148%G +0.001%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.79%EV -0.813%E -0.077%K -0.086%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-30 16:50
Marathon Bet🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 65.99%EV -10.86%E -7.81%K -27.85%G +0.000%3.66I 27.32%NM 25.06%EV -3.29%E -0.898%K -1.24%G +0.000%10.25I 9.76%NM 8.95%EV -3.17%E -0.310%K -0.343%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-30 16:45
Unibet (UK)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.13%EV -7.01%E -4.84%K -15.58%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.57%EV -7.51%E -2.15%K -3.01%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.30%EV -5.54%E -0.554%K -0.615%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-30 15:30
Tipico (DE)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 64.61%EV -8.94%E -6.29%K -21.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.21%EV -7.51%E -2.15%K -3.01%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.17%EV -5.54%E -0.554%K -0.615%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-30 15:30
Codere (IT)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.09%EV -8.30%E -5.80%K -19.29%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.56%EV -8.83%E -2.56%K -3.61%G +0.000%9.80I 10.20%NM 9.35%EV -7.43%E -0.758%K -0.844%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-30 16:55
Coolbet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.88%EV +0.682%E +0.435%K +1.20%G +0.008%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.33%EV -18.08%E -5.83%K -8.61%G +0.000%9.60I 10.42%NM 9.79%EV -9.32%E -0.970%K -1.08%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-30 13:30
Paddy Power🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.63%EV -10.22%E -7.30%K -25.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.85%EV -7.51%E -2.15%K -3.01%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.52%EV -10.26%E -1.08%K -1.21%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-30 16:50
Betclic (FR)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.17%EV -10.22%E -7.30%K -25.55%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.21%EV -14.12%E -4.34%K -6.28%G +0.000%9.20I 10.87%NM 9.61%EV -13.09%E -1.42%K -1.60%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-30 16:54
PMU (FR)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 65.35%EV -13.43%E -9.95%K -38.36%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.85%EV -6.19%E -1.74%K -2.43%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.80%EV -14.98%E -1.66%K -1.87%G +0.000%13.4%2026-09-30 16:50
888sport🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.91%EV -10.22%E -7.30%K -25.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.56%EV -7.51%E -2.15%K -3.01%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.53%EV -19.71%E -2.32%K -2.63%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-30 16:05
888sport (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.91%EV -10.22%E -7.30%K -25.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.56%EV -7.51%E -2.15%K -3.01%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.53%EV -19.71%E -2.32%K -2.63%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-30 16:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.91%EV -10.22%E -7.30%K -25.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.56%EV -7.51%E -2.15%K -3.01%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.53%EV -19.71%E -2.32%K -2.63%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-30 16:05
Betsson🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.94%EV -10.22%E -7.30%K -25.55%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.87%EV -4.87%E -1.35%K -1.87%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.19%EV -24.43%E -3.05%K -3.49%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-30 16:55
NordicBet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.94%EV -10.22%E -7.30%K -25.55%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.87%EV -4.87%E -1.35%K -1.87%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.19%EV -24.43%E -3.05%K -3.49%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-30 16:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.51I 66.23%NM 60.18%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.54%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.28%10.0%2026-09-30 16:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.51I 66.23%NM 60.18%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.54%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.28%10.0%2026-09-30 16:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.51I 66.23%NM 60.18%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.54%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.28%10.0%2026-09-30 16:35
Smarkets◎1.38I 72.46%NM 62.70%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.47%8.80I 11.36%NM 9.83%15.6%2026-09-30 16:50

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Pinnacle🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 78.75%4.41I 22.68%NM 21.25%6.7%2026-09-30 16:50