The School of Odds
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SC Magdeburg v SG BBM Bietigheim

Kickoff: 2026-09-26 18:00 UTC

Final: SC Magdeburg 33–24 SG BBM Bietigheim

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

20 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

SC Magdeburg (Local)

Prediction 90.72%1.10fair odd
EV -8.37%
Edge -8.29%
Kelly -837.06%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.01

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
87.44%90.63%90.61%94.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.001.011.011.01100.00%99.30%99.01%99.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

SG BBM Bietigheim (Visit)

Prediction 5.00%20.02fair odd
EV +69.86%
Edge +2.05%
Kelly +2.12%
Growth +1.48%

assuming max odds 34.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
2.80%5.05%5.23%6.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
13.0020.4321.0034.007.69%4.90%4.76%2.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 4.28%23.35fair odd
EV +45.58%
Edge +1.34%
Kelly +1.38%
Growth +0.630%

assuming max odds 34.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
2.80%4.33%4.16%5.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
15.0023.8225.0034.006.67%4.20%4.00%2.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: SC Magdeburg (Local): 90.72%; SG BBM Bietigheim (Visit): 5.00%; Draw: 4.28%. For SG BBM Bietigheim (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 20.02. 14 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 34.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +69.86%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (20 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Paddy Power🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 94.39%EV -8.37%E -8.29%K -837.06%G +0.000%34.00I 2.94%NM 2.80%EV +69.86%E +2.05%K +2.12%G +1.48%34.00I 2.94%NM 2.80%EV +45.58%E +1.34%K +1.38%G +0.630%4.9%2026-09-26 17:50
Unibet (UK)🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 93.33%EV -8.37%E -8.29%K -837.06%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.63%EV +29.89%E +1.15%K +1.20%G +0.357%31.00I 3.23%NM 3.04%EV +32.74%E +1.06%K +1.09%G +0.357%6.1%2026-09-26 17:50
Coolbet🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 91.76%EV -8.37%E -8.29%K -837.06%G +0.000%22.50I 4.44%NM 4.12%EV +12.41%E +0.552%K +0.577%G +0.072%22.50I 4.44%NM 4.12%EV -3.66%E -0.163%K -0.170%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-26 17:49
Winamax (DE)🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 92.19%EV -8.37%E -8.29%K -837.06%G +0.000%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.23%EV +9.91%E +0.450%K +0.472%G +0.047%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.58%EV +11.33%E +0.436%K +0.453%G +0.051%7.4%2026-09-26 17:50
NordicBet🎯1.00I 100.00%NM 92.44%EV -9.28%E -9.28%K +0.000%G +0.000%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.20%EV +9.91%E +0.450%K +0.472%G +0.047%27.50I 3.64%NM 3.36%EV +17.75%E +0.645%K +0.670%G +0.119%8.2%2026-09-26 03:10
Betsson🎯1.00I 100.00%NM 92.44%EV -9.28%E -9.28%K +0.000%G +0.000%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.20%EV +9.91%E +0.450%K +0.472%G +0.047%27.50I 3.64%NM 3.36%EV +17.75%E +0.645%K +0.670%G +0.119%8.2%2026-09-25 19:14
Virgin Bet🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 91.87%EV -8.37%E -8.29%K -837.06%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.42%EV +4.91%E +0.234%K +0.246%G +0.012%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.71%EV +7.05%E +0.282%K +0.294%G +0.021%7.8%2026-09-26 15:45
Grosvenor🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 91.87%EV -8.37%E -8.29%K -837.06%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.42%EV +4.91%E +0.234%K +0.246%G +0.012%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.71%EV +7.05%E +0.282%K +0.294%G +0.021%7.8%2026-09-26 15:45
Casumo🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 91.87%EV -8.37%E -8.29%K -837.06%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.42%EV +4.91%E +0.234%K +0.246%G +0.012%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.71%EV +7.05%E +0.282%K +0.294%G +0.021%7.8%2026-09-26 15:45
LiveScore Bet🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 91.87%EV -8.37%E -8.29%K -837.06%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.42%EV +4.91%E +0.234%K +0.246%G +0.012%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.71%EV +7.05%E +0.282%K +0.294%G +0.021%7.8%2026-09-26 15:45
Unibet (NL)🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 91.87%EV -8.37%E -8.29%K -837.06%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.42%EV +4.91%E +0.234%K +0.246%G +0.012%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.71%EV +7.05%E +0.282%K +0.294%G +0.021%7.8%2026-09-26 15:45
Unibet🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 91.87%EV -8.37%E -8.29%K -837.06%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.42%EV +4.91%E +0.234%K +0.246%G +0.012%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.71%EV +7.05%E +0.282%K +0.294%G +0.021%7.8%2026-09-26 15:45
Svenska Spel🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 91.87%EV -8.37%E -8.29%K -837.06%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.42%EV +4.91%E +0.234%K +0.246%G +0.012%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.71%EV +7.05%E +0.282%K +0.294%G +0.021%7.8%2026-09-26 15:45
ATG (SE)🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 91.87%EV -8.37%E -8.29%K -837.06%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.42%EV +4.91%E +0.234%K +0.246%G +0.012%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.71%EV +7.05%E +0.282%K +0.294%G +0.021%7.8%2026-09-26 15:45
Marathon Bet🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 90.61%EV -8.37%E -8.29%K -837.06%G +0.000%17.50I 5.71%NM 5.23%EV -12.57%E -0.718%K -0.762%G +0.000%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.16%EV -5.80%E -0.264%K -0.276%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-25 19:15
Betclic (FR)🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 89.95%EV -8.37%E -8.29%K -837.06%G +0.000%16.50I 6.06%NM 5.51%EV -17.57%E -1.06%K -1.13%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.54%EV -14.36%E -0.718%K -0.756%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-26 17:33
888sport🎯1.00I 100.00%NM 88.85%EV -9.28%E -9.28%K +0.000%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 5.92%EV -25.06%E -1.67%K -1.79%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.23%EV -27.21%E -1.60%K -1.70%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-26 15:49
888sport (SE)🎯1.00I 100.00%NM 88.85%EV -9.28%E -9.28%K +0.000%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 5.92%EV -25.06%E -1.67%K -1.79%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.23%EV -27.21%E -1.60%K -1.70%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-26 15:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.00I 100.00%NM 88.85%EV -9.28%E -9.28%K +0.000%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 5.92%EV -25.06%E -1.67%K -1.79%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.23%EV -27.21%E -1.60%K -1.70%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-26 15:50
Winamax (FR)🎯1.00I 100.00%NM 87.44%EV -9.28%E -9.28%K +0.000%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.73%EV -35.05%E -2.70%K -2.92%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 5.83%EV -35.77%E -2.38%K -2.56%G +0.000%14.4%2026-09-26 14:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.00I 100.00%NM 86.33%11.49I 8.70%NM 7.51%14.01I 7.14%NM 6.16%15.8%2026-09-25 11:40

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Pinnacle🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 93.05%13.65I 7.33%NM 6.95%5.4%2026-09-26 16:30