The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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SC Magdeburg v HC Erlangen

Kickoff: 2026-10-04 13:00 UTC

Final: SC Magdeburg 35–28 HC Erlangen

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

SC Magdeburg (Local)

Prediction 87.58%1.14fair odd
EV -7.16%
Edge -6.75%
Kelly -119.34%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.06

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
84.87%87.67%87.56%90.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.011.041.041.0699.01%95.71%96.15%94.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

HC Erlangen (Visit)

Prediction 7.50%13.34fair odd
EV +27.44%
Edge +1.61%
Kelly +1.71%
Growth +0.470%

assuming max odds 17.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
5.40%7.39%7.65%8.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
10.0011.8811.0017.0010.00%8.42%9.09%5.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 4.92%20.33fair odd
EV +30.35%
Edge +1.15%
Kelly +1.19%
Growth +0.361%

assuming max odds 26.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
3.49%4.94%4.79%6.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
13.0017.1715.0026.507.69%5.82%6.67%3.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: SC Magdeburg (Local): 87.58%; HC Erlangen (Visit): 7.50%; Draw: 4.92%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 20.33. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 26.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +30.35%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 90.92%EV -11.54%E -11.43%K -1153.94%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.40%EV +27.44%E +1.61%K +1.71%G +0.470%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.67%EV +22.97%E +0.919%K +0.957%G +0.220%8.9%2026-10-02 06:10
Paddy Power🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 89.72%EV -8.91%E -8.57%K -222.80%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.22%EV +12.44%E +0.830%K +0.889%G +0.111%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.06%EV +13.14%E +0.571%K +0.597%G +0.078%7.2%2026-10-03 01:25
Coolbet🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 88.98%EV -7.16%E -6.75%K -119.34%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.74%EV +4.95%E +0.353%K +0.381%G +0.019%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.29%EV +8.22%E +0.373%K +0.391%G +0.032%6.0%2026-10-04 12:35
Unibet (UK)🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 88.98%EV -8.91%E -8.57%K -222.80%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.61%EV +4.95%E +0.353%K +0.381%G +0.019%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.41%EV +3.30%E +0.157%K +0.165%G +0.005%8.1%2026-10-03 01:25
Winamax (DE)🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 88.98%EV -8.91%E -8.57%K -222.80%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.61%EV +4.95%E +0.353%K +0.381%G +0.019%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.41%EV +3.30%E +0.157%K +0.165%G +0.005%8.1%2026-10-04 12:54
Codere (IT)🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 88.13%EV -8.91%E -8.57%K -222.80%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.05%EV -2.55%E -0.196%K -0.212%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.82%EV -6.54%E -0.344%K -0.363%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-03 13:26
Betclic (FR)🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 88.82%EV -8.91%E -8.57%K -222.80%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.70%EV -10.04%E -0.837%K -0.913%G +0.000%26.50I 3.77%NM 3.49%EV +30.35%E +1.15%K +1.19%G +0.361%8.3%2026-10-04 12:55
Marathon Bet🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 86.60%EV -7.16%E -6.75%K -119.34%G +0.000%11.25I 8.89%NM 8.16%EV -15.67%E -1.39%K -1.53%G +0.000%17.50I 5.71%NM 5.25%EV -13.92%E -0.795%K -0.844%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-04 07:20
Unibet🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 85.69%EV -7.16%E -6.75%K -119.34%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.26%EV -17.54%E -1.59%K -1.75%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.06%EV -26.22%E -1.75%K -1.87%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-03 08:00
Virgin Bet🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 85.69%EV -7.16%E -6.75%K -119.34%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.26%EV -17.54%E -1.59%K -1.75%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.06%EV -26.22%E -1.75%K -1.87%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-03 08:00
LiveScore Bet🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 85.69%EV -7.16%E -6.75%K -119.34%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.26%EV -17.54%E -1.59%K -1.75%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.06%EV -26.22%E -1.75%K -1.87%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-03 08:00
Grosvenor🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 85.69%EV -7.16%E -6.75%K -119.34%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.26%EV -17.54%E -1.59%K -1.75%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.06%EV -26.22%E -1.75%K -1.87%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-03 08:00
Unibet (NL)🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 85.69%EV -7.16%E -6.75%K -119.34%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.26%EV -17.54%E -1.59%K -1.75%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.06%EV -26.22%E -1.75%K -1.87%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-03 08:01
Casumo🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 85.69%EV -7.16%E -6.75%K -119.34%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.26%EV -17.54%E -1.59%K -1.75%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.06%EV -26.22%E -1.75%K -1.87%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-03 08:00
ATG (SE)🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 85.69%EV -7.16%E -6.75%K -119.34%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.26%EV -17.54%E -1.59%K -1.75%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.06%EV -26.22%E -1.75%K -1.87%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-03 08:01
Svenska Spel🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 85.69%EV -7.16%E -6.75%K -119.34%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.26%EV -17.54%E -1.59%K -1.75%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.06%EV -26.22%E -1.75%K -1.87%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-03 08:00
888sport🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 85.92%EV -8.91%E -8.57%K -222.80%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.12%EV -17.54%E -1.59%K -1.75%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 5.96%EV -26.22%E -1.75%K -1.87%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-04 01:10
888sport (SE)🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 85.92%EV -8.91%E -8.57%K -222.80%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.12%EV -17.54%E -1.59%K -1.75%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 5.96%EV -26.22%E -1.75%K -1.87%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-04 01:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 85.92%EV -8.91%E -8.57%K -222.80%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.12%EV -17.54%E -1.59%K -1.75%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 5.96%EV -26.22%E -1.75%K -1.87%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-04 01:09
Betsson🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 85.38%EV -10.66%E -10.45%K -533.18%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 7.92%EV -17.54%E -1.59%K -1.75%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.70%EV -36.05%E -2.77%K -3.00%G +0.000%14.8%2026-10-04 12:55
NordicBet🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 85.51%EV -11.54%E -11.43%K -1153.94%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 7.85%EV -17.54%E -1.59%K -1.75%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.64%EV -36.05%E -2.77%K -3.00%G +0.000%15.8%2026-10-04 12:55
PMU (FR)🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 84.87%EV -8.91%E -8.57%K -222.80%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.83%EV -25.04%E -2.50%K -2.78%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.30%EV -31.13%E -2.22%K -2.39%G +0.000%13.3%2026-10-03 08:01
Winamax (FR)🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 85.35%EV -9.79%E -9.50%K -326.26%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.79%EV -25.04%E -2.50%K -2.78%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 5.86%EV -26.22%E -1.75%K -1.87%G +0.000%13.8%2026-10-04 12:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.03I 97.09%NM 84.35%9.20I 10.87%NM 9.44%14.01I 7.14%NM 6.20%15.1%2026-10-04 12:55

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Pinnacle🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 89.25%8.72I 11.47%NM 10.75%6.7%2026-10-04 04:15