The School of Odds
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Rhein-Neckar Löwen v VfL Gummersbach

Kickoff: 2026-09-02 18:00 UTC

Final: Rhein-Neckar Löwen 26–31 VfL Gummersbach

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Rhein-Neckar Löwen (Local)

Prediction 44.60%2.24fair odd
EV -2.77%
Edge -1.27%
Kelly -2.35%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.18

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.22%44.57%44.61%47.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.871.992.002.1853.48%50.26%50.00%45.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

VfL Gummersbach (Visit)

Prediction 43.14%2.32fair odd
EV -3.80%
Edge -1.71%
Kelly -3.09%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.23

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.38%43.44%43.13%46.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.142.122.2350.00%46.72%47.17%44.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 12.26%8.15fair odd
EV +9.14%
Edge +1.03%
Kelly +1.16%
Growth +0.106%

assuming max odds 8.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.54%11.98%12.26%12.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.007.817.608.9014.29%12.80%13.16%11.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Rhein-Neckar Löwen (Local): 44.60%; VfL Gummersbach (Visit): 43.14%; Draw: 12.26%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.15. 10 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.90, corresponding to a positive expected value of +9.14%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.22%EV -2.77%E -1.27%K -2.35%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.19%EV -12.00%E -5.88%K -11.54%G +0.000%8.90I 11.24%NM 10.59%EV +9.14%E +1.03%K +1.16%G +0.106%6.1%2026-09-02 15:09
Marathon Bet🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 44.95%EV -9.02%E -4.42%K -8.67%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 44.51%EV -11.14%E -5.41%K -10.51%G +0.000%8.70I 11.49%NM 10.54%EV +6.69%E +0.769%K +0.869%G +0.058%9.1%2026-09-02 16:45
Virgin Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.53%EV -13.03%E -6.68%K -13.72%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.56%EV -3.80%E -1.71%K -3.09%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.90%EV +4.24%E +0.498%K +0.565%G +0.024%7.9%2026-09-02 09:55
LiveScore Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.53%EV -13.03%E -6.68%K -13.72%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.56%EV -3.80%E -1.71%K -3.09%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.90%EV +4.24%E +0.498%K +0.565%G +0.024%7.9%2026-09-02 09:54
Unibet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.53%EV -13.03%E -6.68%K -13.72%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.56%EV -3.80%E -1.71%K -3.09%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.90%EV +4.24%E +0.498%K +0.565%G +0.024%7.9%2026-09-02 09:54
Grosvenor🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 47.66%EV -13.48%E -6.95%K -14.34%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.46%EV -3.80%E -1.71%K -3.09%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.88%EV +4.24%E +0.498%K +0.565%G +0.024%8.2%2026-09-02 09:55
Unibet (NL)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 47.66%EV -13.48%E -6.95%K -14.34%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.46%EV -3.80%E -1.71%K -3.09%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.88%EV +4.24%E +0.498%K +0.565%G +0.024%8.2%2026-09-02 09:50
Casumo🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 47.66%EV -13.48%E -6.95%K -14.34%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.46%EV -3.80%E -1.71%K -3.09%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.88%EV +4.24%E +0.498%K +0.565%G +0.024%8.2%2026-09-02 09:54
ATG (SE)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 47.66%EV -13.48%E -6.95%K -14.34%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.46%EV -3.80%E -1.71%K -3.09%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.88%EV +4.24%E +0.498%K +0.565%G +0.024%8.2%2026-09-02 09:50
Svenska Spel🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 47.66%EV -13.48%E -6.95%K -14.34%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.46%EV -3.80%E -1.71%K -3.09%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.88%EV +4.24%E +0.498%K +0.565%G +0.024%8.2%2026-09-02 09:50
Winamax (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.09%EV -8.57%E -4.18%K -8.16%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -7.25%E -3.37%K -6.31%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.93%EV -4.96%E -0.640%K -0.735%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-02 17:35
Codere (IT)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.71%EV -8.57%E -4.18%K -8.16%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.23%EV -8.55%E -4.03%K -7.63%G +0.000%7.60I 13.16%NM 12.06%EV -6.80%E -0.895%K -1.03%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-02 17:35
Unibet (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.91%EV -8.57%E -4.18%K -8.16%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.82%EV -7.25%E -3.37%K -6.31%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.27%EV -8.03%E -1.07%K -1.23%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-02 16:50
Tipico (DE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.96%EV -10.80%E -5.40%K -10.80%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.78%EV -5.10%E -2.32%K -4.25%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.26%EV -8.03%E -1.07%K -1.23%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-02 15:45
PMU (FR)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 46.92%EV -16.60%E -8.88%K -19.08%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 41.38%EV -8.55%E -4.03%K -7.63%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.70%EV -8.03%E -1.07%K -1.23%G +0.000%14.0%2026-09-02 09:50
Betclic (FR)🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 44.50%EV -11.25%E -5.65%K -11.36%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.20%EV -11.57%E -5.64%K -11.02%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 12.30%EV -11.71%E -1.63%K -1.89%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-02 17:46
Paddy Power🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.68%EV -10.80%E -5.40%K -10.80%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.55%EV -9.41%E -4.48%K -8.56%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.77%EV -14.16%E -2.02%K -2.36%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-02 16:25
888sport🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.68%EV -10.80%E -5.40%K -10.80%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.55%EV -9.41%E -4.48%K -8.56%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.77%EV -14.16%E -2.02%K -2.36%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-02 16:45
888sport (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.68%EV -10.80%E -5.40%K -10.80%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.55%EV -9.41%E -4.48%K -8.56%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.77%EV -14.16%E -2.02%K -2.36%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-02 16:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.68%EV -10.80%E -5.40%K -10.80%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.55%EV -9.41%E -4.48%K -8.56%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.77%EV -14.16%E -2.02%K -2.36%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-02 16:45
NordicBet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.22%EV -10.80%E -5.40%K -10.80%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.14%EV -11.57%E -5.64%K -11.02%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.63%EV -14.16%E -2.02%K -2.36%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-02 17:55
Winamax (FR)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 44.47%EV -11.69%E -5.91%K -11.93%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 42.95%EV -11.57%E -5.64%K -11.02%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.58%EV -14.16%E -2.02%K -2.36%G +0.000%13.6%2026-09-02 17:35
Betsson🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 43.75%EV -10.80%E -5.40%K -10.80%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 43.75%EV -13.72%E -6.86%K -13.72%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.50%EV -14.16%E -2.02%K -2.36%G +0.000%14.3%2026-09-02 17:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.95I 51.28%NM 44.56%2.02I 49.50%NM 43.02%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.41%15.1%2026-09-02 17:35

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Pinnacle🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.84%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.16%5.4%2026-09-02 16:20