The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

MT Melsungen v TVB Stuttgart

Kickoff: 2026-09-13 16:01 UTC

Final: MT Melsungen 32–27 TVB Stuttgart

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

20 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

MT Melsungen (Local)

Prediction 68.46%1.46fair odd
EV -3.48%
Edge -2.46%
Kelly -8.48%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.41

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.71%68.44%68.44%70.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.301.371.381.4176.92%73.21%72.46%70.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

TVB Stuttgart (Visit)

Prediction 22.67%4.41fair odd
EV +3.14%
Edge +0.690%
Kelly +0.885%
Growth +0.028%

assuming max odds 4.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.45%22.53%22.71%25.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.453.873.754.5528.99%25.87%26.67%21.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 8.87%11.27fair odd
EV -2.38%
Edge -0.217%
Kelly -0.238%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 11.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.37%9.03%8.85%10.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.509.799.5011.0011.76%10.22%10.53%9.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: MT Melsungen (Local): 68.46%; TVB Stuttgart (Visit): 22.67%; Draw: 8.87%. For TVB Stuttgart (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.41. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.55, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.14%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (20 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.76%EV -8.95%E -6.73%K -27.13%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.68%EV +3.14%E +0.690%K +0.885%G +0.028%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV -2.38%E -0.217%K -0.238%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-13 11:55
Tipico (DE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.79%EV -11.01%E -8.47%K -36.69%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.45%EV +2.01%E +0.446%K +0.574%G +0.012%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.76%EV -6.82%E -0.649%K -0.718%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-13 15:50
Winamax (DE)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 69.40%EV -8.27%E -6.17%K -24.32%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.14%EV -4.79%E -1.14%K -1.50%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.45%EV -2.38%E -0.217%K -0.238%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-13 15:50
Unibet (UK)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 69.40%EV -8.27%E -6.17%K -24.32%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.14%EV -4.79%E -1.14%K -1.50%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.45%EV -2.38%E -0.217%K -0.238%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-13 15:55
Paddy Power🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.47%EV -11.01%E -8.47%K -36.69%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.50%EV -4.79%E -1.14%K -1.50%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.03%EV -11.26%E -1.13%K -1.25%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-13 15:55
Codere (IT)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.19%EV -8.95%E -6.73%K -27.13%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.44%EV -7.06%E -1.72%K -2.28%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.37%EV -2.38%E -0.217%K -0.238%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-13 15:55
Betclic (FR)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 67.96%EV -11.01%E -8.47%K -36.69%G +0.000%3.83I 26.11%NM 23.07%EV -13.18%E -3.44%K -4.66%G +0.000%9.85I 10.15%NM 8.97%EV -12.59%E -1.28%K -1.42%G +0.000%13.2%2026-09-13 15:53
Winamax (FR)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 67.62%EV -11.01%E -8.47%K -36.69%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.13%EV -13.86%E -3.65%K -4.95%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.25%EV -15.69%E -1.65%K -1.85%G +0.000%13.8%2026-09-13 15:50
Marathon Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.47%EV -5.53%E -4.01%K -14.55%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 24.27%EV -14.31%E -3.79%K -5.15%G +0.000%9.90I 10.10%NM 9.27%EV -12.14%E -1.23%K -1.36%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-13 15:55
NordicBet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 65.34%EV -5.53%E -4.01%K -14.55%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.05%EV -14.99%E -4.00%K -5.45%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.61%EV -24.57%E -2.89%K -3.28%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-13 15:55
Betsson🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 65.34%EV -5.53%E -4.01%K -14.55%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.05%EV -14.99%E -4.00%K -5.45%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.61%EV -24.57%E -2.89%K -3.28%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-13 15:55
Unibet (NL)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 65.16%EV -3.48%E -2.46%K -8.48%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.17%EV -17.26%E -4.73%K -6.51%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.67%EV -15.69%E -1.65%K -1.85%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-13 15:50
LiveScore Bet🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 65.16%EV -3.48%E -2.46%K -8.48%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.17%EV -17.26%E -4.73%K -6.51%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.67%EV -15.69%E -1.65%K -1.85%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-13 15:50
Grosvenor🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 65.16%EV -3.48%E -2.46%K -8.48%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.17%EV -17.26%E -4.73%K -6.51%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.67%EV -15.69%E -1.65%K -1.85%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-13 15:50
Virgin Bet🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 65.16%EV -3.48%E -2.46%K -8.48%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.17%EV -17.26%E -4.73%K -6.51%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.67%EV -15.69%E -1.65%K -1.85%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-13 15:50
Casumo🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 65.16%EV -3.48%E -2.46%K -8.48%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.17%EV -17.26%E -4.73%K -6.51%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.67%EV -15.69%E -1.65%K -1.85%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-13 15:50
Unibet🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 65.16%EV -3.48%E -2.46%K -8.48%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.17%EV -17.26%E -4.73%K -6.51%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.67%EV -15.69%E -1.65%K -1.85%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-13 15:50
Svenska Spel🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 65.16%EV -3.48%E -2.46%K -8.48%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.17%EV -17.26%E -4.73%K -6.51%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.67%EV -15.69%E -1.65%K -1.85%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-13 15:50
ATG (SE)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 65.16%EV -3.48%E -2.46%K -8.48%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.17%EV -17.26%E -4.73%K -6.51%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.67%EV -15.69%E -1.65%K -1.85%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-13 15:50
PMU (FR)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 64.71%EV -6.90%E -5.07%K -19.16%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.51%EV -21.79%E -6.32%K -8.90%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.78%EV -20.13%E -2.24%K -2.52%G +0.000%13.6%2026-09-13 15:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.28I 78.13%NM 67.47%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.34%9.40I 10.64%NM 9.19%15.8%2026-09-13 15:55

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Pinnacle🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.45%3.81I 26.25%NM 24.55%6.9%2026-09-13 15:45