The School of Odds
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MT Melsungen v SC Magdeburg

Kickoff: 2026-09-20 16:02 UTC

Final: MT Melsungen 37–34 SC Magdeburg

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

MT Melsungen (Local)

Prediction 26.41%3.79fair odd
EV +5.65%
Edge +1.41%
Kelly +1.88%
Growth +0.106%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.60%26.18%26.55%27.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.493.504.0031.25%28.64%28.57%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

SC Magdeburg (Visit)

Prediction 64.05%1.56fair odd
EV -7.13%
Edge -4.92%
Kelly -15.85%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.77%64.24%63.86%67.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.381.421.431.4572.46%70.51%69.93%68.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 9.54%10.48fair odd
EV +0.177%
Edge +0.017%
Kelly +0.019%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 10.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.99%9.58%9.59%10.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.509.419.5010.5011.76%10.62%10.53%9.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: MT Melsungen (Local): 26.41%; SC Magdeburg (Visit): 64.05%; Draw: 9.54%. For MT Melsungen (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.79. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.65%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%EV +5.65%E +1.41%K +1.88%G +0.106%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.42%EV -10.33%E -7.38%K -25.84%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.99%EV +0.177%E +0.017%K +0.019%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-20 12:19
Betsson🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.25%EV -4.91%E -1.36%K -1.89%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 64.92%EV -10.33%E -7.38%K -25.84%G +0.000%9.25I 10.81%NM 9.83%EV -11.75%E -1.27%K -1.42%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-19 22:24
NordicBet🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.25%EV -4.91%E -1.36%K -1.89%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 64.92%EV -10.33%E -7.38%K -25.84%G +0.000%9.25I 10.81%NM 9.83%EV -11.75%E -1.27%K -1.42%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-19 22:24
Unibet (UK)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.57%EV -7.56%E -2.16%K -3.02%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 64.13%EV -7.13%E -4.92%K -15.85%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.30%EV -4.59%E -0.459%K -0.510%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-20 15:49
Winamax (DE)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.57%EV -7.56%E -2.16%K -3.02%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 64.13%EV -7.13%E -4.92%K -15.85%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.30%EV -4.59%E -0.459%K -0.510%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-20 15:49
Tipico (DE)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.21%EV -7.56%E -2.16%K -3.02%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 64.61%EV -9.05%E -6.38%K -21.56%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.17%EV -4.59%E -0.459%K -0.510%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-20 15:39
Unibet (NL)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.21%EV -7.56%E -2.16%K -3.02%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 64.14%EV -8.41%E -5.88%K -19.57%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.65%EV -9.36%E -0.986%K -1.10%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-19 14:01
Unibet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.21%EV -7.56%E -2.16%K -3.02%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 64.14%EV -8.41%E -5.88%K -19.57%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.65%EV -9.36%E -0.986%K -1.10%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-19 14:01
Grosvenor🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.21%EV -7.56%E -2.16%K -3.02%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 64.14%EV -8.41%E -5.88%K -19.57%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.65%EV -9.36%E -0.986%K -1.10%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-19 14:01
Virgin Bet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.21%EV -7.56%E -2.16%K -3.02%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 64.14%EV -8.41%E -5.88%K -19.57%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.65%EV -9.36%E -0.986%K -1.10%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-19 14:01
LiveScore Bet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.21%EV -7.56%E -2.16%K -3.02%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 64.14%EV -8.41%E -5.88%K -19.57%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.65%EV -9.36%E -0.986%K -1.10%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-19 14:01
Casumo🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.21%EV -7.56%E -2.16%K -3.02%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 64.14%EV -8.41%E -5.88%K -19.57%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.65%EV -9.36%E -0.986%K -1.10%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-19 14:01
ATG (SE)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.21%EV -7.56%E -2.16%K -3.02%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 64.14%EV -8.41%E -5.88%K -19.57%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.65%EV -9.36%E -0.986%K -1.10%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-19 14:01
Svenska Spel🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.21%EV -7.56%E -2.16%K -3.02%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 64.14%EV -8.41%E -5.88%K -19.57%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.65%EV -9.36%E -0.986%K -1.10%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-19 14:01
Paddy Power🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.85%EV -7.56%E -2.16%K -3.02%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 64.63%EV -10.33%E -7.38%K -25.84%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.52%EV -9.36%E -0.986%K -1.10%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-18 14:45
888sport🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.56%EV -7.56%E -2.16%K -3.02%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 63.91%EV -10.33%E -7.38%K -25.84%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.53%EV -18.90%E -2.22%K -2.52%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-20 15:44
888sport (SE)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.56%EV -7.56%E -2.16%K -3.02%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 63.91%EV -10.33%E -7.38%K -25.84%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.53%EV -18.90%E -2.22%K -2.52%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-20 15:44
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.56%EV -7.56%E -2.16%K -3.02%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 63.91%EV -10.33%E -7.38%K -25.84%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.53%EV -18.90%E -2.22%K -2.52%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-20 15:44
Marathon Bet🎯3.44I 29.07%NM 26.66%EV -9.14%E -2.66%K -3.75%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 63.69%EV -7.77%E -5.40%K -17.67%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.65%EV -9.36%E -0.986%K -1.10%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-20 15:39
Codere (IT)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.97%EV -10.20%E -3.00%K -4.25%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 63.68%EV -7.77%E -5.40%K -17.67%G +0.000%9.80I 10.20%NM 9.36%EV -6.50%E -0.663%K -0.739%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-20 15:49
PMU (FR)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 26.32%EV -11.52%E -3.44%K -4.90%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 63.89%EV -11.62%E -8.42%K -30.57%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.80%EV -14.13%E -1.57%K -1.77%G +0.000%13.4%2026-09-19 14:01
Betclic (FR)🎯3.23I 30.96%NM 27.34%EV -14.69%E -4.55%K -6.59%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 63.07%EV -10.33%E -7.38%K -25.84%G +0.000%9.20I 10.87%NM 9.60%EV -12.23%E -1.33%K -1.49%G +0.000%13.3%2026-09-20 15:54
Winamax (FR)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 27.46%EV -15.48%E -4.84%K -7.04%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 62.77%EV -10.33%E -7.38%K -25.84%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.76%EV -14.13%E -1.57%K -1.77%G +0.000%13.8%2026-09-20 15:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎3.15I 31.75%NM 27.47%1.38I 72.46%NM 62.70%8.80I 11.36%NM 9.83%15.6%2026-09-20 15:49

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Pinnacle🎯3.32I 30.12%NM 28.29%1.31I 76.34%NM 71.71%6.5%2026-09-20 08:34