The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

MT Melsungen v Bergischer HC

Kickoff: 2026-10-17 18:00 UTC

Final: MT Melsungen 33–26 Bergischer HC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

MT Melsungen (Local)

Prediction 84.32%1.19fair odd
EV -3.03%
Edge -2.64%
Kelly -20.23%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
79.10%83.90%84.61%87.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.051.111.131.1595.24%89.70%88.50%86.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Bergischer HC (Visit)

Prediction 8.98%11.13fair odd
EV +34.71%
Edge +2.31%
Kelly +2.48%
Growth +0.861%

assuming max odds 15.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
6.14%9.29%8.77%12.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.009.067.5015.0014.29%11.03%13.33%6.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 6.70%14.92fair odd
EV +7.21%
Edge +0.451%
Kelly +0.481%
Growth +0.035%

assuming max odds 16.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
5.82%6.81%6.61%8.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
11.0013.0813.0016.009.09%7.65%7.69%6.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: MT Melsungen (Local): 84.32%; Bergischer HC (Visit): 8.98%; Draw: 6.70%. For Bergischer HC (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 11.13. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 15.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +34.71%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 87.72%EV -11.47%E -10.92%K -229.32%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.14%EV +34.71%E +2.31%K +2.48%G +0.861%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.14%EV +0.512%E +0.034%K +0.037%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-17 09:00
Paddy Power🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 87.23%EV -10.62%E -10.02%K -177.04%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.60%EV +25.73%E +1.84%K +1.98%G +0.509%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.16%EV +0.512%E +0.034%K +0.037%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-17 08:53
Unibet (UK)🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 87.02%EV -9.78%E -9.14%K -139.71%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.16%EV +16.75%E +1.29%K +1.40%G +0.234%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.82%EV +7.21%E +0.451%K +0.481%G +0.035%7.4%2026-10-17 08:55
Winamax (DE)🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 86.68%EV -9.78%E -9.14%K -139.71%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.13%EV +16.75%E +1.29%K +1.40%G +0.234%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.18%EV +0.512%E +0.034%K +0.037%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-17 08:55
Codere (IT)🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 85.79%EV -9.78%E -9.14%K -139.71%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.65%EV +7.77%E +0.648%K +0.706%G +0.055%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.56%EV -6.19%E -0.442%K -0.476%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-17 08:59
Betclic (FR)🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 84.83%EV -11.47%E -10.92%K -229.32%G +0.000%10.25I 9.76%NM 8.69%EV -7.95%E -0.775%K -0.859%G +0.000%13.75I 7.27%NM 6.48%EV -7.86%E -0.572%K -0.617%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-17 17:49
Winamax (FR)🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 83.59%EV -11.47%E -10.92%K -229.32%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.78%EV -10.19%E -1.02%K -1.13%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.63%EV -22.94%E -1.99%K -2.18%G +0.000%13.9%2026-10-17 08:55
Betsson🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 82.63%EV -5.56%E -4.97%K -46.36%G +0.000%8.60I 11.63%NM 10.76%EV -22.76%E -2.65%K -3.00%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.61%EV -6.19%E -0.442%K -0.476%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-17 12:40
NordicBet🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 82.63%EV -5.56%E -4.97%K -46.36%G +0.000%8.60I 11.63%NM 10.76%EV -22.76%E -2.65%K -3.00%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.61%EV -6.19%E -0.442%K -0.476%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-17 12:39
Coral🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 81.08%EV -5.56%E -4.97%K -46.36%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.35%EV -28.15%E -3.52%K -4.02%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.57%EV -19.59%E -1.63%K -1.78%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-17 17:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 81.08%EV -5.56%E -4.97%K -46.36%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.35%EV -28.15%E -3.52%K -4.02%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.57%EV -19.59%E -1.63%K -1.78%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-17 17:45
Unibet🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 80.53%EV -3.03%E -2.64%K -20.23%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.35%EV -32.64%E -4.35%K -5.02%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.12%EV -12.89%E -0.992%K -1.07%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-16 09:00
Grosvenor🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 80.53%EV -3.03%E -2.64%K -20.23%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.35%EV -32.64%E -4.35%K -5.02%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.12%EV -12.89%E -0.992%K -1.07%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-16 08:59
Casumo🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 80.53%EV -3.03%E -2.64%K -20.23%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.35%EV -32.64%E -4.35%K -5.02%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.12%EV -12.89%E -0.992%K -1.07%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-16 09:00
ATG (SE)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 80.53%EV -3.03%E -2.64%K -20.23%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.35%EV -32.64%E -4.35%K -5.02%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.12%EV -12.89%E -0.992%K -1.07%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-16 09:00
Virgin Bet🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 80.53%EV -3.03%E -2.64%K -20.23%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.35%EV -32.64%E -4.35%K -5.02%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.12%EV -12.89%E -0.992%K -1.07%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-16 09:00
LiveScore Bet🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 80.53%EV -3.03%E -2.64%K -20.23%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.35%EV -32.64%E -4.35%K -5.02%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.12%EV -12.89%E -0.992%K -1.07%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-16 09:00
Svenska Spel🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 80.53%EV -3.03%E -2.64%K -20.23%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.35%EV -32.64%E -4.35%K -5.02%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.12%EV -12.89%E -0.992%K -1.07%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-16 08:59
Coolbet🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 80.53%EV -3.03%E -2.64%K -20.23%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.35%EV -32.64%E -4.35%K -5.02%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.12%EV -12.89%E -0.992%K -1.07%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-17 17:55
Unibet (NL)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 79.10%EV -3.03%E -2.64%K -20.23%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.99%EV -37.13%E -5.30%K -6.19%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.91%EV -22.94%E -1.99%K -2.18%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-17 08:39
888sport🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 79.10%EV -4.72%E -4.18%K -36.31%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.77%EV -37.13%E -5.30%K -6.19%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.13%EV -26.29%E -2.39%K -2.63%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-17 17:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 79.10%EV -4.72%E -4.18%K -36.31%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.77%EV -37.13%E -5.30%K -6.19%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.13%EV -26.29%E -2.39%K -2.63%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-17 17:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 79.10%EV -4.72%E -4.18%K -36.31%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.77%EV -37.13%E -5.30%K -6.19%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.13%EV -26.29%E -2.39%K -2.63%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-17 17:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.05I 95.24%NM 82.84%9.40I 10.64%NM 9.25%11.00I 9.09%NM 7.91%15.0%2026-10-17 08:55

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Pinnacle🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 86.04%6.72I 14.88%NM 13.96%6.6%2026-10-17 15:15