The School of Odds
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HSG Wetzlar v Rhein-Neckar Löwen

Kickoff: 2026-10-02 17:00 UTC

Final: HSG Wetzlar 30–30 Rhein-Neckar Löwen

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

HSG Wetzlar (Local)

Prediction 22.28%4.49fair odd
EV +15.85%
Edge +3.05%
Kelly +3.77%
Growth +0.598%

assuming max odds 5.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.82%22.19%22.29%23.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.824.374.305.2026.18%22.86%23.26%19.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Rhein-Neckar Löwen (Visit)

Prediction 68.79%1.45fair odd
EV -6.45%
Edge -4.74%
Kelly -17.92%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.36

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
67.43%68.72%68.68%74.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.221.301.321.3681.97%76.95%75.76%73.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 8.93%11.19fair odd
EV +7.22%
Edge +0.601%
Kelly +0.656%
Growth +0.047%

assuming max odds 12.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.75%9.08%9.03%10.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.5010.1010.0012.0011.76%9.90%10.00%8.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: HSG Wetzlar (Local): 22.28%; Rhein-Neckar Löwen (Visit): 68.79%; Draw: 8.93%. For HSG Wetzlar (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.49. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +15.85%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 17.82%EV +15.85%E +3.05%K +3.77%G +0.598%1.25I 80.00%NM 74.12%EV -14.02%E -11.21%K -56.07%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.06%EV +2.75%E +0.239%K +0.262%G +0.007%7.9%2026-10-02 16:55
Unibet (NL)🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 17.82%EV +15.85%E +3.05%K +3.77%G +0.598%1.25I 80.00%NM 74.12%EV -14.02%E -11.21%K -56.07%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.06%EV +2.75%E +0.239%K +0.262%G +0.007%7.9%2026-10-02 16:55
ATG (SE)🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 17.82%EV +15.85%E +3.05%K +3.77%G +0.598%1.25I 80.00%NM 74.12%EV -14.02%E -11.21%K -56.07%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.06%EV +2.75%E +0.239%K +0.262%G +0.007%7.9%2026-10-02 16:54
Svenska Spel🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 17.82%EV +15.85%E +3.05%K +3.77%G +0.598%1.25I 80.00%NM 74.12%EV -14.02%E -11.21%K -56.07%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.06%EV +2.75%E +0.239%K +0.262%G +0.007%7.9%2026-10-02 16:55
PMU (FR)🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 18.70%EV +4.71%E +1.00%K +1.27%G +0.060%1.22I 81.97%NM 72.05%EV -16.08%E -13.18%K -73.09%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.25%EV -15.12%E -1.59%K -1.78%G +0.000%13.8%2026-10-02 16:55
Winamax (DE)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.21%EV +2.48%E +0.540%K +0.690%G +0.017%1.29I 77.52%NM 72.05%EV -11.27%E -8.73%K -38.85%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.75%EV +7.22%E +0.601%K +0.656%G +0.047%7.6%2026-10-01 07:59
NordicBet🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 20.44%EV -3.53%E -0.816%K -1.06%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 69.15%EV -11.95%E -9.34%K -42.69%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.41%EV -24.05%E -2.83%K -3.21%G +0.000%13.0%2026-10-02 16:55
Betsson🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 20.44%EV -3.53%E -0.816%K -1.06%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 69.15%EV -11.95%E -9.34%K -42.69%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.41%EV -24.05%E -2.83%K -3.21%G +0.000%13.0%2026-10-02 16:55
Coolbet🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.56%EV -4.20%E -0.977%K -1.27%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 69.17%EV -7.83%E -5.84%K -23.02%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.27%EV -10.65%E -1.07%K -1.18%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-02 14:55
Virgin Bet🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.23%EV -4.20%E -0.977%K -1.27%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 69.16%EV -9.20%E -6.97%K -28.76%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.61%EV -15.12%E -1.59%K -1.78%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-02 16:59
LiveScore Bet🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.23%EV -4.20%E -0.977%K -1.27%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 69.16%EV -9.20%E -6.97%K -28.76%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.61%EV -15.12%E -1.59%K -1.78%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-02 16:59
Grosvenor🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.23%EV -4.20%E -0.977%K -1.27%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 69.16%EV -9.20%E -6.97%K -28.76%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.61%EV -15.12%E -1.59%K -1.78%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-02 16:59
Casumo🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.23%EV -4.20%E -0.977%K -1.27%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 69.16%EV -9.20%E -6.97%K -28.76%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.61%EV -15.12%E -1.59%K -1.78%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-02 16:59
Tipico (DE)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -6.43%E -1.53%K -2.01%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 69.72%EV -9.20%E -6.97%K -28.76%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.37%EV -1.72%E -0.156%K -0.172%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-01 08:05
Paddy Power🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.50%EV -6.43%E -1.53%K -2.01%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 69.47%EV -10.58%E -8.14%K -35.26%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.03%EV -10.65%E -1.07%K -1.18%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-01 07:59
Codere (IT)🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.44%EV -8.66%E -2.11%K -2.79%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 69.19%EV -8.51%E -6.40%K -25.80%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.37%EV -1.72%E -0.156%K -0.172%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-01 17:05
Winamax (FR)🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 21.41%EV -8.66%E -2.11%K -2.79%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 70.23%EV -14.02%E -11.21%K -56.07%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.36%EV -6.19%E -0.589%K -0.651%G +0.000%13.9%2026-10-02 07:30
Unibet (UK)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.90%EV -10.88%E -2.72%K -3.63%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 68.37%EV -7.83%E -5.84%K -23.02%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.73%EV -6.19%E -0.589%K -0.651%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-02 15:05
888sport🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.46%EV -10.88%E -2.72%K -3.63%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 67.55%EV -8.51%E -6.40%K -25.80%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.98%EV -19.59%E -2.18%K -2.45%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-02 11:05
888sport (SE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.46%EV -10.88%E -2.72%K -3.63%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 67.55%EV -8.51%E -6.40%K -25.80%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.98%EV -19.59%E -2.18%K -2.45%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-02 11:09
Mr Green (SE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.46%EV -10.88%E -2.72%K -3.63%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 67.55%EV -8.51%E -6.40%K -25.80%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.98%EV -19.59%E -2.18%K -2.45%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-02 11:09
Marathon Bet🎯3.92I 25.51%NM 23.40%EV -12.67%E -3.23%K -4.34%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 67.43%EV -6.45%E -4.74%K -17.92%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.17%EV -10.65%E -1.07%K -1.18%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-02 15:50
Betclic (FR)🎯3.82I 26.18%NM 23.21%EV -14.89%E -3.90%K -5.28%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 67.69%EV -9.89%E -7.55%K -31.90%G +0.000%9.75I 10.26%NM 9.09%EV -12.89%E -1.32%K -1.47%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-02 16:47
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎3.70I 27.03%NM 23.46%1.29I 77.52%NM 67.30%9.40I 10.64%NM 9.24%15.2%2026-10-01 08:00

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Pinnacle🎯3.71I 26.95%NM 25.35%1.26I 79.37%NM 74.65%6.3%2026-10-02 11:10