The School of Odds
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HSG Wetzlar v HC Erlangen

Kickoff: 2026-10-15 17:00 UTC

Final: HSG Wetzlar 30–34 HC Erlangen

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

HSG Wetzlar (Local)

Prediction 36.84%2.71fair odd
EV -4.22%
Edge -1.62%
Kelly -2.64%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.02%36.88%36.87%39.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.412.382.6043.48%41.57%42.02%38.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

HC Erlangen (Visit)

Prediction 50.99%1.96fair odd
EV -4.65%
Edge -2.49%
Kelly -5.35%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.87

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.87%50.96%51.00%52.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.741.831.831.8757.47%54.76%54.64%53.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 12.17%8.21fair odd
EV +3.48%
Edge +0.409%
Kelly +0.463%
Growth +0.016%

assuming max odds 8.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.88%12.16%12.14%13.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.507.717.758.5015.38%12.97%12.90%11.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: HSG Wetzlar (Local): 36.84%; HC Erlangen (Visit): 50.99%; Draw: 12.17%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.21. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.48%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Unibet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.68%EV -14.17%E -6.08%K -10.65%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.44%EV -4.65%E -2.49%K -5.35%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.88%EV +3.48%E +0.409%K +0.463%G +0.016%8.2%2026-10-15 16:54
Grosvenor🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.68%EV -14.17%E -6.08%K -10.65%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.44%EV -4.65%E -2.49%K -5.35%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.88%EV +3.48%E +0.409%K +0.463%G +0.016%8.2%2026-10-15 16:55
Casumo🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.68%EV -14.17%E -6.08%K -10.65%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.44%EV -4.65%E -2.49%K -5.35%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.88%EV +3.48%E +0.409%K +0.463%G +0.016%8.2%2026-10-15 16:55
ATG (SE)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.68%EV -14.17%E -6.08%K -10.65%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.44%EV -4.65%E -2.49%K -5.35%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.88%EV +3.48%E +0.409%K +0.463%G +0.016%8.2%2026-10-15 16:55
Unibet (NL)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.68%EV -14.17%E -6.08%K -10.65%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.44%EV -4.65%E -2.49%K -5.35%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.88%EV +3.48%E +0.409%K +0.463%G +0.016%8.2%2026-10-15 16:54
Virgin Bet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.68%EV -14.17%E -6.08%K -10.65%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.44%EV -4.65%E -2.49%K -5.35%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.88%EV +3.48%E +0.409%K +0.463%G +0.016%8.2%2026-10-15 16:55
LiveScore Bet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.68%EV -14.17%E -6.08%K -10.65%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.44%EV -4.65%E -2.49%K -5.35%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.88%EV +3.48%E +0.409%K +0.463%G +0.016%8.2%2026-10-15 16:55
Svenska Spel🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.68%EV -14.17%E -6.08%K -10.65%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.44%EV -4.65%E -2.49%K -5.35%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.88%EV +3.48%E +0.409%K +0.463%G +0.016%8.2%2026-10-15 16:55
Unibet (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.42%EV -4.22%E -1.62%K -2.64%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.74%EV -6.69%E -3.66%K -8.06%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.84%EV -2.61%E -0.326%K -0.373%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-15 16:50
Tipico (DE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.02%EV -6.06%E -2.38%K -3.91%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.49%EV -10.77%E -6.15%K -14.36%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.48%EV -2.61%E -0.326%K -0.373%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-15 16:55
Winamax (DE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.63%EV -6.06%E -2.38%K -3.91%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 51.32%EV -7.20%E -3.96%K -8.78%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.05%EV -5.65%E -0.730%K -0.838%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-15 16:55
Coolbet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.87%EV -9.75%E -3.98%K -6.72%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.16%EV -5.67%E -3.07%K -6.67%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.97%EV -5.65%E -0.730%K -0.838%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-15 16:55
NordicBet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.90%EV -7.90%E -3.16%K -5.27%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 50.96%EV -7.71%E -4.26%K -9.52%G +0.000%7.60I 13.16%NM 12.14%EV -7.48%E -0.984%K -1.13%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-15 16:54
Betsson🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.90%EV -7.90%E -3.16%K -5.27%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 50.96%EV -7.71%E -4.26%K -9.52%G +0.000%7.60I 13.16%NM 12.14%EV -7.48%E -0.984%K -1.13%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-15 16:54
Codere (IT)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.69%EV -7.90%E -3.16%K -5.27%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 51.24%EV -8.73%E -4.88%K -11.05%G +0.000%7.60I 13.16%NM 12.07%EV -7.48%E -0.984%K -1.13%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-15 16:55
Betclic (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.80%EV -11.59%E -4.83%K -8.28%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 50.76%EV -11.28%E -6.48%K -15.24%G +0.000%7.10I 14.08%NM 12.44%EV -13.57%E -1.91%K -2.22%G +0.000%13.2%2026-10-15 16:51
Paddy Power🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.42%EV -7.90%E -3.16%K -5.27%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.58%EV -8.22%E -4.57%K -10.28%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.01%EV -14.78%E -2.11%K -2.46%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-15 16:50
888sport🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.56%EV -12.33%E -5.18%K -8.93%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 49.67%EV -8.22%E -4.57%K -10.28%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.77%EV -14.78%E -2.11%K -2.46%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-15 16:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.56%EV -12.33%E -5.18%K -8.93%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 49.67%EV -8.22%E -4.57%K -10.28%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.77%EV -14.78%E -2.11%K -2.46%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-15 16:55
888sport (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.56%EV -12.33%E -5.18%K -8.93%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 49.67%EV -8.22%E -4.57%K -10.28%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.77%EV -14.78%E -2.11%K -2.46%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-15 16:55
Winamax (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.74%EV -11.59%E -4.83%K -8.28%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 50.67%EV -11.28%E -6.48%K -15.24%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.60%EV -14.78%E -2.11%K -2.46%G +0.000%13.4%2026-10-15 16:54
Coral🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.50%EV -15.27%E -6.64%K -11.75%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 47.87%EV -5.67%E -3.07%K -6.67%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.62%EV -20.87%E -3.21%K -3.79%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-15 16:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.50%EV -15.27%E -6.64%K -11.75%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 47.87%EV -5.67%E -3.07%K -6.67%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.62%EV -20.87%E -3.21%K -3.79%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-15 16:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎2.36I 42.37%NM 36.67%1.71I 58.48%NM 50.61%6.80I 14.71%NM 12.73%15.6%2026-10-15 16:55

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Pinnacle🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.36%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.64%5.4%2026-10-15 16:55