The School of Odds
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HSG Wetzlar v HC Erlangen

Kickoff: 2026-05-23 17:00 UTC

Final: HSG Wetzlar 29–26 HC Erlangen

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

26 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

HSG Wetzlar (Local)

Prediction 56.91%1.76fair odd
EV -7.81%
Edge -4.82%
Kelly -12.60%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.55%57.11%56.62%58.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.511.581.571.6266.23%63.20%63.69%61.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

HC Erlangen (Visit)

Prediction 31.82%3.14fair odd
EV -2.96%
Edge -0.969%
Kelly -1.44%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.52%31.77%31.98%32.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.902.903.0537.04%34.54%34.48%32.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 11.28%8.87fair odd
EV +8.25%
Edge +0.859%
Kelly +0.959%
Growth +0.079%

assuming max odds 9.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
9.93%11.11%11.39%11.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.508.168.109.6013.33%12.26%12.35%10.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: HSG Wetzlar (Local): 56.91%; HC Erlangen (Visit): 31.82%; Draw: 11.28%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.87. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 9.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.25%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.83%EV -7.81%E -4.82%K -12.60%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.25%EV -2.96%E -0.969%K -1.44%G +0.000%9.60I 10.42%NM 9.93%EV +8.25%E +0.859%K +0.959%G +0.079%4.9%2026-05-23 10:49
Marathon Bet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 58.75%EV -11.23%E -7.20%K -20.05%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 31.18%EV -6.46%E -2.20%K -3.33%G +0.000%9.10I 10.99%NM 10.07%EV +2.61%E +0.287%K +0.323%G +0.008%9.1%2026-05-23 16:49
Unibet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.55%EV -10.66%E -6.79%K -18.70%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.64%EV -4.55%E -1.52%K -2.27%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.81%EV -4.15%E -0.489%K -0.554%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-23 15:20
Virgin Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.55%EV -10.66%E -6.79%K -18.70%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.64%EV -4.55%E -1.52%K -2.27%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.81%EV -4.15%E -0.489%K -0.554%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-23 15:19
LiveScore Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.55%EV -10.66%E -6.79%K -18.70%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.64%EV -4.55%E -1.52%K -2.27%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.81%EV -4.15%E -0.489%K -0.554%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-23 15:19
Tipico (DE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.55%EV -10.66%E -6.79%K -18.70%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.64%EV -4.55%E -1.52%K -2.27%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.81%EV -4.15%E -0.489%K -0.554%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-23 15:39
Unibet (NL)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 58.70%EV -11.23%E -7.20%K -20.05%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.52%EV -4.55%E -1.52%K -2.27%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.77%EV -4.15%E -0.489%K -0.554%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-23 15:19
LeoVegas🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 58.70%EV -11.23%E -7.20%K -20.05%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.52%EV -4.55%E -1.52%K -2.27%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.77%EV -4.15%E -0.489%K -0.554%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-23 15:19
Svenska Spel🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 58.70%EV -11.23%E -7.20%K -20.05%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.52%EV -4.55%E -1.52%K -2.27%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.77%EV -4.15%E -0.489%K -0.554%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-23 15:19
ATG (SE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 58.70%EV -11.23%E -7.20%K -20.05%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.52%EV -4.55%E -1.52%K -2.27%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.77%EV -4.15%E -0.489%K -0.554%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-23 15:19
Casumo🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 58.70%EV -11.23%E -7.20%K -20.05%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.52%EV -4.55%E -1.52%K -2.27%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.77%EV -4.15%E -0.489%K -0.554%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-23 15:20
Grosvenor🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 58.70%EV -11.23%E -7.20%K -20.05%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.52%EV -4.55%E -1.52%K -2.27%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.77%EV -4.15%E -0.489%K -0.554%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-23 15:19
Codere (IT)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.63%EV -7.81%E -4.82%K -12.60%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.19%EV -9.32%E -3.27%K -5.04%G +0.000%8.20I 12.20%NM 11.19%EV -7.54%E -0.919%K -1.05%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-23 15:39
Unibet (UK)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.78%EV -7.81%E -4.82%K -12.60%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.72%EV -7.73%E -2.67%K -4.07%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.50%EV -9.79%E -1.22%K -1.40%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-23 15:30
Winamax (DE)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.78%EV -7.81%E -4.82%K -12.60%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.72%EV -7.73%E -2.67%K -4.07%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.50%EV -9.79%E -1.22%K -1.40%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-23 15:29
NordicBet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.62%EV -8.38%E -5.21%K -13.74%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.99%EV -9.32%E -3.27%K -5.04%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.39%EV -9.79%E -1.22%K -1.40%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-23 15:29
Betsson🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.62%EV -8.38%E -5.21%K -13.74%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.99%EV -9.32%E -3.27%K -5.04%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.39%EV -9.79%E -1.22%K -1.40%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-23 15:29
PMU (FR)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 58.19%EV -14.07%E -9.32%K -27.59%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.83%EV -9.32%E -3.27%K -5.04%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 10.98%EV -9.79%E -1.22%K -1.40%G +0.000%13.8%2026-05-23 15:20
Betclic (FR)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.30%EV -10.66%E -6.79%K -18.70%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.14%EV -12.50%E -4.55%K -7.14%G +0.000%7.65I 13.07%NM 11.55%EV -13.74%E -1.80%K -2.07%G +0.000%13.1%2026-05-23 16:49
Paddy Power🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.00%EV -10.66%E -6.79%K -18.70%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.07%EV -8.37%E -2.90%K -4.45%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.93%EV -15.43%E -2.06%K -2.37%G +0.000%11.7%2026-05-23 15:30
888sport🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 55.55%EV -8.38%E -5.21%K -13.74%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.52%EV -12.50%E -4.55%K -7.14%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.93%EV -15.43%E -2.06%K -2.37%G +0.000%11.8%2026-05-23 16:39
888sport (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 55.55%EV -8.38%E -5.21%K -13.74%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.52%EV -12.50%E -4.55%K -7.14%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.93%EV -15.43%E -2.06%K -2.37%G +0.000%11.8%2026-05-23 16:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 55.55%EV -8.38%E -5.21%K -13.74%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.52%EV -12.50%E -4.55%K -7.14%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.93%EV -15.43%E -2.06%K -2.37%G +0.000%11.8%2026-05-23 16:39
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 55.71%EV -8.95%E -5.59%K -14.92%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.41%EV -12.50%E -4.55%K -7.14%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.88%EV -15.43%E -2.06%K -2.37%G +0.000%12.2%2026-05-23 15:29
Coral🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 55.71%EV -8.95%E -5.59%K -14.92%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.41%EV -12.50%E -4.55%K -7.14%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.88%EV -15.43%E -2.06%K -2.37%G +0.000%12.2%2026-05-23 15:30
Winamax (FR)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 56.00%EV -11.23%E -7.20%K -20.05%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.35%EV -14.09%E -5.22%K -8.29%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.65%EV -15.43%E -2.06%K -2.37%G +0.000%14.5%2026-05-23 15:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.55I 64.52%NM 55.93%2.68I 37.31%NM 32.35%7.40I 13.51%NM 11.72%15.3%2026-05-23 15:30

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Pinnacle🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%6.2%2026-05-23 15:30