The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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HC Erlangen v THW Kiel

Kickoff: 2026-10-24 16:00 UTC

Final: HC Erlangen 31–36 THW Kiel

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

HC Erlangen (Local)

Prediction 24.83%4.03fair odd
EV +1.82%
Edge +0.444%
Kelly +0.588%
Growth +0.011%

assuming max odds 4.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.38%24.75%24.66%26.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.673.654.1030.30%27.22%27.40%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

THW Kiel (Visit)

Prediction 65.68%1.52fair odd
EV -6.08%
Edge -4.25%
Kelly -14.13%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.43

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.63%65.66%65.83%68.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.331.391.401.4375.19%72.01%71.43%69.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 9.48%10.54fair odd
EV -0.419%
Edge -0.040%
Kelly -0.044%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 10.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.84%9.59%9.50%10.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.509.379.5010.5011.76%10.67%10.53%9.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: HC Erlangen (Local): 24.83%; THW Kiel (Visit): 65.68%; Draw: 9.48%. For HC Erlangen (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.03. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.82%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.38%EV +1.82%E +0.444%K +0.588%G +0.011%1.35I 74.07%NM 67.96%EV -11.33%E -8.39%K -32.37%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.66%EV -9.90%E -1.04%K -1.17%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-24 13:10
Paddy Power🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.69%EV -0.661%E -0.165%K -0.220%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 68.24%EV -12.64%E -9.51%K -38.31%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.08%EV -5.16%E -0.516%K -0.573%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-24 12:25
Codere (IT)🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 23.84%EV -4.39%E -1.14%K -1.54%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 66.99%EV -10.02%E -7.31%K -27.07%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.18%EV -5.16%E -0.516%K -0.573%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-24 13:19
Coolbet🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.65%EV -6.87%E -1.83%K -2.50%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 65.09%EV -6.73%E -4.74%K -16.03%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.27%EV -14.65%E -1.63%K -1.83%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-24 15:45
NordicBet🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -6.87%E -1.83%K -2.50%G +0.000%1.39I 71.94%NM 66.24%EV -8.70%E -6.26%K -22.32%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -5.16%E -0.516%K -0.573%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-24 12:20
Betsson🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -6.87%E -1.83%K -2.50%G +0.000%1.39I 71.94%NM 66.24%EV -8.70%E -6.26%K -22.32%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -5.16%E -0.516%K -0.573%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-24 12:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 23.82%EV -6.87%E -1.83%K -2.50%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 65.67%EV -10.67%E -7.85%K -29.65%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.51%EV -19.39%E -2.28%K -2.58%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-24 13:10
Coral🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 23.82%EV -6.87%E -1.83%K -2.50%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 65.67%EV -10.67%E -7.85%K -29.65%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.51%EV -19.39%E -2.28%K -2.58%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-24 13:10
Virgin Bet🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.05%EV -9.35%E -2.56%K -3.53%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 65.32%EV -8.05%E -5.75%K -20.12%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.63%EV -9.90%E -1.04%K -1.17%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-24 13:05
Casumo🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.05%EV -9.35%E -2.56%K -3.53%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 65.32%EV -8.05%E -5.75%K -20.12%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.63%EV -9.90%E -1.04%K -1.17%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-24 13:05
Svenska Spel🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.05%EV -9.35%E -2.56%K -3.53%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 65.32%EV -8.05%E -5.75%K -20.12%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.63%EV -9.90%E -1.04%K -1.17%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-24 13:05
ATG (SE)🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.05%EV -9.35%E -2.56%K -3.53%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 65.32%EV -8.05%E -5.75%K -20.12%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.63%EV -9.90%E -1.04%K -1.17%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-24 13:05
Unibet🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.05%EV -9.35%E -2.56%K -3.53%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 65.32%EV -8.05%E -5.75%K -20.12%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.63%EV -9.90%E -1.04%K -1.17%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-24 13:05
Grosvenor🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.05%EV -9.35%E -2.56%K -3.53%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 65.32%EV -8.05%E -5.75%K -20.12%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.63%EV -9.90%E -1.04%K -1.17%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-24 13:05
LiveScore Bet🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.05%EV -9.35%E -2.56%K -3.53%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 65.32%EV -8.05%E -5.75%K -20.12%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.63%EV -9.90%E -1.04%K -1.17%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-24 13:05
Unibet (NL)🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 24.92%EV -9.35%E -2.56%K -3.53%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 64.97%EV -8.05%E -5.75%K -20.12%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.11%EV -14.65%E -1.63%K -1.83%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-24 13:05
Winamax (DE)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -10.59%E -2.94%K -4.07%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 64.93%EV -6.08%E -4.25%K -14.13%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.28%EV -5.16%E -0.516%K -0.573%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-24 10:55
Unibet (UK)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -10.59%E -2.94%K -4.07%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 65.37%EV -6.73%E -4.74%K -16.03%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.84%EV -0.419%E -0.040%K -0.044%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-24 12:07
Betclic (FR)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.60%EV -10.59%E -2.94%K -4.07%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 66.08%EV -11.99%E -8.95%K -35.26%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.32%EV -9.90%E -1.04%K -1.17%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-24 15:49
888sport🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.56%EV -13.08%E -3.74%K -5.23%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 63.91%EV -8.05%E -5.75%K -20.12%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.53%EV -19.39%E -2.28%K -2.58%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-24 15:40
888sport (SE)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.56%EV -13.08%E -3.74%K -5.23%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 63.91%EV -8.05%E -5.75%K -20.12%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.53%EV -19.39%E -2.28%K -2.58%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-24 15:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.56%EV -13.08%E -3.74%K -5.23%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 63.91%EV -8.05%E -5.75%K -20.12%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.53%EV -19.39%E -2.28%K -2.58%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-24 15:39
Winamax (FR)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 26.61%EV -18.05%E -5.47%K -7.85%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 63.63%EV -9.36%E -6.78%K -24.63%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.76%EV -14.65%E -1.63%K -1.83%G +0.000%13.9%2026-10-24 10:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎3.50I 28.57%NM 24.80%1.32I 75.76%NM 65.76%9.20I 10.87%NM 9.44%15.2%2026-10-24 13:15

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Pinnacle🎯3.88I 25.77%NM 24.22%1.24I 80.65%NM 75.78%6.4%2026-10-24 14:10