The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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HC Erlangen v MT Melsungen

Kickoff: 2026-10-11 14:30 UTC

Final: HC Erlangen 33–32 MT Melsungen

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

HC Erlangen (Local)

Prediction 27.23%3.67fair odd
EV -1.96%
Edge -0.545%
Kelly -0.755%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.68%27.13%27.34%28.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.433.503.6032.26%29.13%28.57%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

MT Melsungen (Visit)

Prediction 62.92%1.59fair odd
EV -7.51%
Edge -5.11%
Kelly -15.97%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.47

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.53%62.91%62.89%64.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.441.441.4771.43%69.55%69.44%68.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 9.85%10.16fair odd
EV -1.53%
Edge -0.153%
Kelly -0.170%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 10.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
9.17%9.97%9.77%11.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.509.249.6010.0013.33%10.83%10.42%10.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: HC Erlangen (Local): 27.23%; MT Melsungen (Visit): 62.92%; Draw: 9.85%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 10.16. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 10.00, with an expected value of -1.53%; they did not produce positive expected value.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.68%EV -1.96%E -0.545%K -0.755%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 63.76%EV -8.77%E -6.05%K -19.48%G +0.000%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.57%EV -13.84%E -1.58%K -1.79%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-11 14:24
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.68%EV -1.96%E -0.545%K -0.755%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 63.47%EV -11.91%E -8.51%K -29.78%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.85%EV -26.15%E -3.49%K -4.02%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-11 14:24
Coral🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.68%EV -1.96%E -0.545%K -0.755%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 63.47%EV -11.91%E -8.51%K -29.78%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.85%EV -26.15%E -3.49%K -4.02%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-11 14:24
LiveScore Bet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.45%EV -4.69%E -1.34%K -1.87%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.29%EV -9.39%E -6.52%K -21.35%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV -1.53%E -0.153%K -0.170%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-11 08:30
Unibet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.45%EV -4.69%E -1.34%K -1.87%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.29%EV -9.39%E -6.52%K -21.35%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV -1.53%E -0.153%K -0.170%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-11 08:30
Virgin Bet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.45%EV -4.69%E -1.34%K -1.87%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.29%EV -9.39%E -6.52%K -21.35%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV -1.53%E -0.153%K -0.170%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-11 08:30
Casumo🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.33%EV -4.69%E -1.34%K -1.87%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 64.45%EV -10.02%E -7.01%K -23.31%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.22%EV -1.53%E -0.153%K -0.170%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-11 08:30
Grosvenor🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.33%EV -4.69%E -1.34%K -1.87%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 64.45%EV -10.02%E -7.01%K -23.31%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.22%EV -1.53%E -0.153%K -0.170%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-11 08:30
Unibet (NL)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.33%EV -4.69%E -1.34%K -1.87%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 64.45%EV -10.02%E -7.01%K -23.31%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.22%EV -1.53%E -0.153%K -0.170%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-11 08:30
Svenska Spel🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.33%EV -4.69%E -1.34%K -1.87%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 64.45%EV -10.02%E -7.01%K -23.31%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.22%EV -1.53%E -0.153%K -0.170%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-11 08:30
ATG (SE)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.33%EV -4.69%E -1.34%K -1.87%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 64.45%EV -10.02%E -7.01%K -23.31%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.22%EV -1.53%E -0.153%K -0.170%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-11 08:30
Tipico (DE)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.21%EV -4.69%E -1.34%K -1.87%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 64.61%EV -10.65%E -7.50%K -25.36%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.17%EV -1.53%E -0.153%K -0.170%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-10 13:58
Winamax (DE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -7.41%E -2.18%K -3.09%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 63.01%EV -7.51%E -5.11%K -15.97%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.75%EV -6.45%E -0.679%K -0.759%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-10 15:30
Unibet (UK)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.01%EV -7.41%E -2.18%K -3.09%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 63.33%EV -8.77%E -6.05%K -19.48%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.67%EV -6.45%E -0.679%K -0.759%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-11 12:34
Paddy Power🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -7.41%E -2.18%K -3.09%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 63.15%EV -9.39%E -6.52%K -21.35%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.10%EV -11.38%E -1.26%K -1.42%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-10 14:00
888sport🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.41%EV -7.41%E -2.18%K -3.09%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 62.36%EV -9.39%E -6.52%K -21.35%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.23%EV -21.22%E -2.65%K -3.03%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-10 15:30
888sport (SE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.41%EV -7.41%E -2.18%K -3.09%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 62.36%EV -9.39%E -6.52%K -21.35%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.23%EV -21.22%E -2.65%K -3.03%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-10 15:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.41%EV -7.41%E -2.18%K -3.09%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 62.36%EV -9.39%E -6.52%K -21.35%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.23%EV -21.22%E -2.65%K -3.03%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-10 15:30
Betsson🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.62%EV -8.77%E -2.62%K -3.73%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 62.94%EV -7.51%E -5.11%K -15.97%G +0.000%9.80I 10.20%NM 9.44%EV -3.50%E -0.357%K -0.398%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-10 15:30
NordicBet🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.62%EV -8.77%E -2.62%K -3.73%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 62.94%EV -7.51%E -5.11%K -15.97%G +0.000%9.80I 10.20%NM 9.44%EV -3.50%E -0.357%K -0.398%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-10 15:30
Codere (IT)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.75%EV -10.13%E -3.07%K -4.41%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 62.72%EV -8.14%E -5.57%K -17.69%G +0.000%9.60I 10.42%NM 9.54%EV -5.47%E -0.570%K -0.636%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-10 15:30
Betclic (FR)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 28.15%EV -14.22%E -4.51%K -6.61%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 62.00%EV -10.02%E -7.01%K -23.31%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.85%EV -11.38%E -1.26%K -1.42%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-11 14:20
Winamax (FR)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.19%EV -15.58%E -5.03%K -7.42%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 61.53%EV -10.65%E -7.50%K -25.36%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.28%EV -16.30%E -1.92%K -2.17%G +0.000%14.4%2026-10-11 02:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎3.05I 32.79%NM 28.43%1.41I 70.92%NM 61.49%8.60I 11.63%NM 10.08%15.3%2026-10-10 15:30

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Pinnacle🎯3.23I 30.96%NM 29.17%1.33I 75.19%NM 70.83%6.1%2026-10-10 14:01