The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

HBW Balingen-Weilstetten v MT Melsungen

Kickoff: 2026-10-24 18:00 UTC

Final: HBW Balingen-Weilstetten 26–27 MT Melsungen

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

HBW Balingen-Weilstetten (Local)

Prediction 31.11%3.21fair odd
EV -6.67%
Edge -2.22%
Kelly -3.34%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.43%31.16%31.09%31.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.752.932.953.0036.36%34.13%33.90%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

MT Melsungen (Visit)

Prediction 57.93%1.73fair odd
EV -7.32%
Edge -4.57%
Kelly -12.20%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.86%57.96%57.91%59.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.531.561.561.6065.36%63.92%64.10%62.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 10.97%9.12fair odd
EV +4.18%
Edge +0.440%
Kelly +0.492%
Growth +0.021%

assuming max odds 9.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
9.70%10.88%11.00%11.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.508.638.609.5013.33%11.58%11.63%10.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: HBW Balingen-Weilstetten (Local): 31.11%; MT Melsungen (Visit): 57.93%; Draw: 10.97%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 9.12. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 9.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.18%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Virgin Bet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.35%EV -8.23%E -2.79%K -4.22%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.91%EV -9.06%E -5.77%K -15.89%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.74%EV +4.18%E +0.440%K +0.492%G +0.021%8.1%2026-10-23 15:06
Unibet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.35%EV -8.23%E -2.79%K -4.22%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.91%EV -9.06%E -5.77%K -15.89%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.74%EV +4.18%E +0.440%K +0.492%G +0.021%8.1%2026-10-23 15:06
LiveScore Bet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.35%EV -8.23%E -2.79%K -4.22%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.91%EV -9.06%E -5.77%K -15.89%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.74%EV +4.18%E +0.440%K +0.492%G +0.021%8.1%2026-10-23 15:06
Casumo🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.23%EV -8.23%E -2.79%K -4.22%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.07%EV -9.64%E -6.18%K -17.21%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.70%EV +4.18%E +0.440%K +0.492%G +0.021%8.5%2026-10-23 15:06
Svenska Spel🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.23%EV -8.23%E -2.79%K -4.22%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.07%EV -9.64%E -6.18%K -17.21%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.70%EV +4.18%E +0.440%K +0.492%G +0.021%8.5%2026-10-23 15:06
ATG (SE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.23%EV -8.23%E -2.79%K -4.22%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.07%EV -9.64%E -6.18%K -17.21%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.70%EV +4.18%E +0.440%K +0.492%G +0.021%8.5%2026-10-23 15:06
Grosvenor🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.23%EV -8.23%E -2.79%K -4.22%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.07%EV -9.64%E -6.18%K -17.21%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.70%EV +4.18%E +0.440%K +0.492%G +0.021%8.5%2026-10-23 15:06
Unibet (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.17%EV -6.67%E -2.22%K -3.34%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -7.32%E -4.57%K -12.20%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.39%EV -1.30%E -0.145%K -0.163%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-24 17:25
Tipico (DE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.59%EV -6.67%E -2.22%K -3.34%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.21%EV -10.22%E -6.59%K -18.57%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.20%EV -1.30%E -0.145%K -0.163%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-24 17:40
Unibet (NL)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.43%EV -9.79%E -3.37%K -5.15%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 58.44%EV -9.64%E -6.18%K -17.21%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.13%EV -1.30%E -0.145%K -0.163%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-24 07:20
NordicBet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.38%EV -8.23%E -2.79%K -4.22%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.86%EV -7.32%E -4.57%K -12.20%G +0.000%8.60I 11.63%NM 10.76%EV -5.69%E -0.661%K -0.749%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-24 17:25
Betsson🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.38%EV -8.23%E -2.79%K -4.22%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.86%EV -7.32%E -4.57%K -12.20%G +0.000%8.60I 11.63%NM 10.76%EV -5.69%E -0.661%K -0.749%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-24 17:25
Winamax (DE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -6.67%E -2.22%K -3.34%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.09%EV -7.32%E -4.57%K -12.20%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.93%EV -6.79%E -0.798%K -0.905%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-24 17:25
Codere (IT)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.07%EV -8.23%E -2.79%K -4.22%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 58.02%EV -8.48%E -5.37%K -14.62%G +0.000%8.40I 11.90%NM 10.91%EV -7.88%E -0.938%K -1.07%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-24 17:25
Coolbet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.88%EV -6.67%E -2.22%K -3.34%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -7.32%E -4.57%K -12.20%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.23%EV -9.53%E -1.15%K -1.31%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-24 17:40
Paddy Power🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -6.67%E -2.22%K -3.34%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.15%EV -9.06%E -5.77%K -15.89%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.41%EV -12.27%E -1.53%K -1.75%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-24 17:25
888sport🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 30.84%EV -10.41%E -3.61%K -5.54%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 58.06%EV -11.37%E -7.43%K -21.46%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.10%EV -12.27%E -1.53%K -1.75%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-24 17:25
888sport (SE)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 30.84%EV -10.41%E -3.61%K -5.54%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 58.06%EV -11.37%E -7.43%K -21.46%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.10%EV -12.27%E -1.53%K -1.75%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-24 17:31
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 30.84%EV -10.41%E -3.61%K -5.54%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 58.06%EV -11.37%E -7.43%K -21.46%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.10%EV -12.27%E -1.53%K -1.75%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-24 17:30
Betclic (FR)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.54%EV -12.90%E -4.61%K -7.16%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 57.35%EV -10.80%E -7.01%K -19.99%G +0.000%7.95I 12.58%NM 11.11%EV -12.82%E -1.61%K -1.84%G +0.000%13.2%2026-10-24 17:50
Winamax (FR)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 31.84%EV -14.45%E -5.26%K -8.26%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 56.86%EV -10.80%E -7.01%K -19.99%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.30%EV -15.01%E -1.94%K -2.22%G +0.000%14.2%2026-10-24 17:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.70%EV -9.79%E -3.37%K -5.15%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 57.43%EV -10.22%E -6.59%K -18.57%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.87%EV -17.75%E -2.37%K -2.73%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-24 17:50
Coral🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.70%EV -9.79%E -3.37%K -5.15%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 57.43%EV -10.22%E -6.59%K -18.57%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.87%EV -17.75%E -2.37%K -2.73%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-24 17:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎2.74I 36.50%NM 31.61%1.52I 65.79%NM 56.99%7.60I 13.16%NM 11.40%15.4%2026-10-24 17:25

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Pinnacle🎯2.97I 33.67%NM 31.72%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.28%6.1%2026-10-24 17:25