The School of Odds
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HBW Balingen-Weilstetten v Bergischer HC

Kickoff: 2026-10-02 18:00 UTC

Final: HBW Balingen-Weilstetten 28–29 Bergischer HC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

HBW Balingen-Weilstetten (Local)

Prediction 63.40%1.58fair odd
EV -3.00%
Edge -1.96%
Kelly -5.66%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.53

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.58%63.40%63.21%64.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.381.461.461.5372.46%68.29%68.49%65.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Bergischer HC (Visit)

Prediction 26.63%3.75fair odd
EV -0.119%
Edge -0.032%
Kelly -0.043%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.89%26.50%26.96%29.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.333.303.7533.33%30.01%30.30%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 9.97%10.03fair odd
EV -4.33%
Edge -0.451%
Kelly -0.503%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 9.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
9.54%10.10%9.83%11.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.008.728.509.6012.50%11.47%11.76%10.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: HBW Balingen-Weilstetten (Local): 63.40%; Bergischer HC (Visit): 26.63%; Draw: 9.97%. For Bergischer HC (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.754. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.750, with an expected value of -0.119%; they did not produce positive expected value.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.03%EV -3.00%E -1.96%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.16%EV -16.10%E -5.11%K -7.49%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.81%EV -15.29%E -1.80%K -2.04%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-02 07:44
Unibet (NL)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.03%EV -3.00%E -1.96%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.16%EV -16.10%E -5.11%K -7.49%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.81%EV -15.29%E -1.80%K -2.04%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-02 07:45
ATG (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.03%EV -3.00%E -1.96%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.16%EV -16.10%E -5.11%K -7.49%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.81%EV -15.29%E -1.80%K -2.04%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-02 07:45
Virgin Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.03%EV -3.00%E -1.96%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.16%EV -16.10%E -5.11%K -7.49%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.81%EV -15.29%E -1.80%K -2.04%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-02 07:45
LiveScore Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.03%EV -3.00%E -1.96%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.16%EV -16.10%E -5.11%K -7.49%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.81%EV -15.29%E -1.80%K -2.04%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-02 07:44
Grosvenor🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.03%EV -3.00%E -1.96%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.16%EV -16.10%E -5.11%K -7.49%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.81%EV -15.29%E -1.80%K -2.04%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-02 07:44
Casumo🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.03%EV -3.00%E -1.96%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.16%EV -16.10%E -5.11%K -7.49%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.81%EV -15.29%E -1.80%K -2.04%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-02 07:45
Svenska Spel🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.03%EV -3.00%E -1.96%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.16%EV -16.10%E -5.11%K -7.49%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.81%EV -15.29%E -1.80%K -2.04%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-02 07:45
PMU (FR)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 59.58%EV -6.17%E -4.17%K -12.85%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.39%EV -20.10%E -6.70%K -10.05%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.02%EV -20.27%E -2.53%K -2.90%G +0.000%13.4%2026-10-02 07:44
Winamax (DE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.01%EV -6.80%E -4.63%K -14.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -9.44%E -2.78%K -3.93%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.75%EV -5.32%E -0.561%K -0.626%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-02 17:54
Marathon Bet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 62.80%EV -7.44%E -5.09%K -16.17%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 27.45%EV -11.04%E -3.31%K -4.72%G +0.000%9.40I 10.64%NM 9.75%EV -6.32%E -0.672%K -0.753%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-02 17:49
Codere (IT)🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 62.72%EV -7.44%E -5.09%K -16.17%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.75%EV -12.10%E -3.67%K -5.26%G +0.000%9.60I 10.42%NM 9.54%EV -4.33%E -0.451%K -0.503%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-02 17:55
Unibet (UK)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.33%EV -8.07%E -5.57%K -17.94%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.01%EV -9.44%E -2.78%K -3.93%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.67%EV -5.32%E -0.561%K -0.626%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-02 17:54
Paddy Power🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.15%EV -8.70%E -6.05%K -19.78%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -9.44%E -2.78%K -3.93%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.10%EV -10.31%E -1.15%K -1.29%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-02 17:55
Coolbet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.93%EV -9.34%E -6.53%K -21.72%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.76%EV -0.119%E -0.032%K -0.043%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.32%EV -10.31%E -1.15%K -1.29%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-02 17:53
Betclic (FR)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 62.00%EV -9.34%E -6.53%K -21.72%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.15%EV -16.10%E -5.11%K -7.49%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.85%EV -10.31%E -1.15%K -1.29%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-02 17:55
Tipico (DE)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 64.77%EV -9.97%E -7.02%K -23.75%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -4.11%E -1.14%K -1.58%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.68%EV -5.32%E -0.561%K -0.626%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-02 17:50
Winamax (FR)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 61.53%EV -9.97%E -7.02%K -23.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.19%EV -17.43%E -5.62%K -8.30%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.28%EV -15.29%E -1.80%K -2.04%G +0.000%14.4%2026-10-02 17:55
Betsson🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.59%EV -11.24%E -8.03%K -28.10%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.11%EV -0.119%E -0.032%K -0.043%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.30%EV -20.27%E -2.53%K -2.90%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-02 17:54
888sport🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.91%EV -11.24%E -8.03%K -28.10%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.56%EV -6.78%E -1.94%K -2.71%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.53%EV -15.29%E -1.80%K -2.04%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-02 16:20
888sport (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.91%EV -11.24%E -8.03%K -28.10%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.56%EV -6.78%E -1.94%K -2.71%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.53%EV -15.29%E -1.80%K -2.04%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-02 16:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.91%EV -11.24%E -8.03%K -28.10%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.56%EV -6.78%E -1.94%K -2.71%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.53%EV -15.29%E -1.80%K -2.04%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-02 16:20
NordicBet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 64.91%EV -12.51%E -9.06%K -32.92%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.89%EV -0.119%E -0.032%K -0.043%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.20%EV -20.27%E -2.53%K -2.90%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-02 17:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.41I 70.92%NM 61.49%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.43%8.60I 11.63%NM 10.08%15.3%2026-10-02 17:55

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Pinnacle🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.59%3.09I 32.36%NM 30.41%6.4%2026-10-02 14:40