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GWD Minden v TVB Stuttgart

Kickoff: 2026-03-01 14:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

24 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

GWD Minden (Local)

Prediction 32.52%3.07fair odd
EV -5.68%
Edge -1.96%
Kelly -2.99%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.71%32.57%32.52%33.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.812.872.9038.46%35.58%34.90%34.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

TVB Stuttgart (Visit)

Prediction 56.36%1.77fair odd
EV -7.00%
Edge -4.24%
Kelly -10.77%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.09%56.35%56.36%57.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.561.621.631.6564.10%61.74%61.35%60.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 11.11%9.00fair odd
EV +0.027%
Edge +0.003%
Kelly +0.003%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 9.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.19%11.08%11.12%11.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.258.318.389.0013.79%12.04%11.94%11.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: GWD Minden (Local): 32.52%; TVB Stuttgart (Visit): 56.36%; Draw: 11.11%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.998. 10 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 9.000, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.027%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (24 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Grosvenor🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.40%EV -6.33%E -2.20%K -3.37%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 57.24%EV -8.13%E -4.99%K -12.90%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.37%EV +0.027%E +0.003%K +0.003%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-27 18:49
Virgin Bet🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.40%EV -6.33%E -2.20%K -3.37%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 57.24%EV -8.13%E -4.99%K -12.90%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.37%EV +0.027%E +0.003%K +0.003%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-27 18:49
Unibet (NL)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.40%EV -6.33%E -2.20%K -3.37%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 57.24%EV -8.13%E -4.99%K -12.90%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.37%EV +0.027%E +0.003%K +0.003%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-27 18:49
LeoVegas🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.40%EV -6.33%E -2.20%K -3.37%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 57.24%EV -8.13%E -4.99%K -12.90%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.37%EV +0.027%E +0.003%K +0.003%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-27 18:49
Casumo🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.40%EV -6.33%E -2.20%K -3.37%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 57.24%EV -8.13%E -4.99%K -12.90%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.37%EV +0.027%E +0.003%K +0.003%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-27 18:49
Unibet🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.40%EV -6.33%E -2.20%K -3.37%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 57.24%EV -8.13%E -4.99%K -12.90%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.37%EV +0.027%E +0.003%K +0.003%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-27 18:49
LiveScore Bet🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.40%EV -6.33%E -2.20%K -3.37%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 57.24%EV -8.13%E -4.99%K -12.90%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.37%EV +0.027%E +0.003%K +0.003%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-27 18:49
ATG (SE)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.40%EV -6.33%E -2.20%K -3.37%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 57.24%EV -8.13%E -4.99%K -12.90%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.37%EV +0.027%E +0.003%K +0.003%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-27 18:49
Svenska Spel🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.40%EV -6.33%E -2.20%K -3.37%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 57.24%EV -8.13%E -4.99%K -12.90%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.37%EV +0.027%E +0.003%K +0.003%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-27 18:49
Marathon Bet🎯2.71I 36.90%NM 33.86%EV -11.86%E -4.38%K -6.94%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 55.95%EV -7.57%E -4.61%K -11.82%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.19%EV +0.027%E +0.003%K +0.003%G +0.000%9.0%2026-02-28 02:18
Unibet (UK)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.42%EV -6.33%E -2.20%K -3.37%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.59%EV -7.00%E -4.24%K -10.77%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.99%EV -5.53%E -0.651%K -0.737%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-28 02:19
Tipico (DE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -5.68%E -1.96%K -2.99%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.47%EV -9.82%E -6.14%K -16.37%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.82%EV -5.53%E -0.651%K -0.737%G +0.000%8.7%2026-02-28 02:19
Coolbet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.43%EV -7.31%E -2.56%K -3.95%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 56.36%EV -7.57%E -4.61%K -11.82%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.20%EV -8.31%E -1.01%K -1.15%G +0.000%8.2%2026-02-28 16:44
Winamax (DE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.32%EV -7.31%E -2.56%K -3.95%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 56.17%EV -7.57%E -4.61%K -11.82%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.51%EV -11.09%E -1.39%K -1.58%G +0.000%8.6%2026-02-28 02:20
Paddy Power🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.87%EV -6.33%E -2.20%K -3.37%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 56.66%EV -8.69%E -5.37%K -14.02%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.47%EV -11.09%E -1.39%K -1.58%G +0.000%9.0%2026-02-28 02:19
NordicBet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.48%EV -8.93%E -3.19%K -4.96%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 56.15%EV -8.69%E -5.37%K -14.02%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.37%EV -11.09%E -1.39%K -1.58%G +0.000%9.9%2026-02-28 02:24
Betsson🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.48%EV -8.93%E -3.19%K -4.96%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 56.15%EV -8.69%E -5.37%K -14.02%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.37%EV -11.09%E -1.39%K -1.58%G +0.000%9.9%2026-02-28 02:20
888sport🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.52%EV -10.56%E -3.84%K -6.03%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 55.55%EV -9.26%E -5.75%K -15.18%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.93%EV -16.64%E -2.22%K -2.56%G +0.000%11.8%2026-02-27 14:00
888sport (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.52%EV -10.56%E -3.84%K -6.03%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 55.55%EV -9.26%E -5.75%K -15.18%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.93%EV -16.64%E -2.22%K -2.56%G +0.000%11.8%2026-02-27 14:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.52%EV -10.56%E -3.84%K -6.03%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 55.55%EV -9.26%E -5.75%K -15.18%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.93%EV -16.64%E -2.22%K -2.56%G +0.000%11.8%2026-02-27 14:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.93%EV -12.19%E -4.51%K -7.17%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 55.22%EV -9.26%E -5.75%K -15.18%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.85%EV -16.64%E -2.22%K -2.56%G +0.000%12.5%2026-02-26 18:35
Coral🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.93%EV -12.19%E -4.51%K -7.17%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 55.22%EV -9.26%E -5.75%K -15.18%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.85%EV -16.64%E -2.22%K -2.56%G +0.000%12.5%2026-02-26 18:35
Betclic (FR)🎯2.61I 38.31%NM 33.02%EV -15.11%E -5.79%K -9.39%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 55.25%EV -12.07%E -7.74%K -21.56%G +0.000%7.35I 13.61%NM 11.73%EV -18.31%E -2.49%K -2.88%G +0.000%16.0%2026-03-01 13:45
Winamax (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 33.05%EV -15.44%E -5.94%K -9.65%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 55.09%EV -12.07%E -7.74%K -21.56%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 11.85%EV -19.42%E -2.68%K -3.11%G +0.000%16.4%2026-02-28 02:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎2.64I 37.88%NM 32.80%1.56I 64.10%NM 55.50%7.40I 13.51%NM 11.70%15.5%2026-02-28 02:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.05I 32.79%NM 17.38%1.58I 63.29%NM 33.55%1.08I 92.59%NM 49.08%88.7%2026-03-01 13:54
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.05I 32.79%NM 17.38%1.58I 63.29%NM 33.55%1.08I 92.59%NM 49.08%88.7%2026-03-01 13:54
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.05I 32.79%NM 17.38%1.58I 63.29%NM 33.55%1.08I 92.59%NM 49.08%88.7%2026-03-01 13:54

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Pinnacle🎯2.69I 37.17%NM 35.18%1.46I 68.49%NM 64.82%5.7%2026-03-01 13:44