The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Füchse Berlin v TBV Lemgo

Kickoff: 2026-10-11 16:01 UTC

Final: Füchse Berlin 36–37 TBV Lemgo

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Füchse Berlin (Local)

Prediction 76.78%1.30fair odd
EV -7.87%
Edge -6.56%
Kelly -39.35%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
74.76%77.20%76.68%81.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.151.181.171.2086.96%85.09%85.47%83.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

TBV Lemgo (Visit)

Prediction 15.83%6.32fair odd
EV +23.49%
Edge +3.01%
Kelly +3.45%
Growth +0.811%

assuming max odds 7.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.04%15.42%15.95%17.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.106.096.007.8019.61%16.41%16.67%12.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 7.39%13.53fair odd
EV +10.89%
Edge +0.726%
Kelly +0.778%
Growth +0.085%

assuming max odds 15.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
6.26%7.38%7.37%8.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
11.0012.2412.5015.009.09%8.17%8.00%6.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Füchse Berlin (Local): 76.78%; TBV Lemgo (Visit): 15.83%; Draw: 7.39%. For TBV Lemgo (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.32. 10 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +23.49%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 81.69%EV -11.71%E -10.18%K -78.06%G +0.000%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.04%EV +23.49%E +3.01%K +3.45%G +0.811%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.26%EV +10.89%E +0.726%K +0.778%G +0.085%6.4%2026-10-11 05:30
Tipico (DE)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 78.61%EV -10.17%E -8.69%K -59.84%G +0.000%6.70I 14.93%NM 13.73%EV +6.07%E +0.907%K +1.07%G +0.065%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.66%EV -11.29%E -0.940%K -1.03%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-11 15:49
LiveScore Bet🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 78.66%EV -10.94%E -9.43%K -68.38%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.04%EV +2.91%E +0.447%K +0.529%G +0.015%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.30%EV -7.59%E -0.607%K -0.660%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-11 08:30
Unibet🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 78.66%EV -10.94%E -9.43%K -68.38%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.04%EV +2.91%E +0.447%K +0.529%G +0.015%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.30%EV -7.59%E -0.607%K -0.660%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-11 08:30
Virgin Bet🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 78.66%EV -10.94%E -9.43%K -68.38%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.04%EV +2.91%E +0.447%K +0.529%G +0.015%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.30%EV -7.59%E -0.607%K -0.660%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-11 08:30
Casumo🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 78.66%EV -10.94%E -9.43%K -68.38%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.04%EV +2.91%E +0.447%K +0.529%G +0.015%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.30%EV -7.59%E -0.607%K -0.660%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-11 08:30
Grosvenor🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 78.66%EV -10.94%E -9.43%K -68.38%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.04%EV +2.91%E +0.447%K +0.529%G +0.015%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.30%EV -7.59%E -0.607%K -0.660%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-11 08:30
Unibet (NL)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 78.66%EV -10.94%E -9.43%K -68.38%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.04%EV +2.91%E +0.447%K +0.529%G +0.015%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.30%EV -7.59%E -0.607%K -0.660%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-11 08:30
Svenska Spel🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 78.66%EV -10.94%E -9.43%K -68.38%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.04%EV +2.91%E +0.447%K +0.529%G +0.015%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.30%EV -7.59%E -0.607%K -0.660%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-11 08:30
ATG (SE)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 78.66%EV -10.94%E -9.43%K -68.38%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.04%EV +2.91%E +0.447%K +0.529%G +0.015%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.30%EV -7.59%E -0.607%K -0.660%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-11 08:30
Paddy Power🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 77.37%EV -10.17%E -8.69%K -59.84%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.09%EV -5.01%E -0.835%K -1.00%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.54%EV -11.29%E -0.940%K -1.03%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-11 15:49
888sport🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 76.84%EV -10.17%E -8.69%K -59.84%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.98%EV -5.01%E -0.835%K -1.00%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.17%EV -18.68%E -1.70%K -1.87%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-11 15:29
888sport (SE)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 76.84%EV -10.17%E -8.69%K -59.84%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.98%EV -5.01%E -0.835%K -1.00%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.17%EV -18.68%E -1.70%K -1.87%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-11 15:29
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 76.84%EV -10.17%E -8.69%K -59.84%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.98%EV -5.01%E -0.835%K -1.00%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.17%EV -18.68%E -1.70%K -1.87%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-11 15:30
Winamax (DE)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 77.18%EV -7.87%E -6.56%K -39.35%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.70%EV -6.59%E -1.12%K -1.35%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.12%EV -3.89%E -0.299%K -0.324%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-11 15:50
Betsson🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.97%EV -7.87%E -6.56%K -39.35%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.92%EV -8.17%E -1.41%K -1.70%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.10%EV -3.89%E -0.299%K -0.324%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-11 15:49
NordicBet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.97%EV -7.87%E -6.56%K -39.35%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.92%EV -8.17%E -1.41%K -1.70%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.10%EV -3.89%E -0.299%K -0.324%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-11 15:49
Unibet (UK)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.86%EV -7.87%E -6.56%K -39.35%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.04%EV -8.97%E -1.56%K -1.89%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.10%EV -3.89%E -0.299%K -0.324%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-11 15:50
Codere (IT)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.53%EV -7.87%E -6.56%K -39.35%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.40%EV -11.34%E -2.03%K -2.47%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.06%EV -3.89%E -0.299%K -0.324%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-11 15:49
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 74.76%EV -7.87%E -6.56%K -39.35%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.09%EV -16.88%E -3.22%K -3.97%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.16%EV -18.68%E -1.70%K -1.87%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-11 15:49
Coral🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 74.76%EV -7.87%E -6.56%K -39.35%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.09%EV -16.88%E -3.22%K -3.97%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.16%EV -18.68%E -1.70%K -1.87%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-11 15:54
Betclic (FR)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 75.21%EV -9.41%E -7.97%K -52.25%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.07%EV -17.67%E -3.40%K -4.21%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.72%EV -14.98%E -1.30%K -1.43%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-11 15:49
Winamax (FR)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 74.86%EV -10.17%E -8.69%K -59.84%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.17%EV -19.26%E -3.78%K -4.70%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 7.96%EV -18.68%E -1.70%K -1.87%G +0.000%14.2%2026-10-11 15:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.16I 86.21%NM 74.49%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.28%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.23%15.7%2026-10-11 15:49

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Pinnacle🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 82.45%5.31I 18.83%NM 17.55%7.3%2026-10-11 15:00